NWS 2016 / 2017 Winter forecast!

[BenedictGomez]

Thanks - wow - cool site.....

Here are some other good ones:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?&lang=en

If you're going to use them, however, I'd caution that you learn how to interpret them. Especially the "total snow" maps, which are a misnomer and dont really show "total snow" depending on the totality of the weather. I often see people post a map that shows 13" of snow and they're giddy, when in reality it's really 4" inches of snow, and a bunch of sleet, hail, rain, freezing rain, and god knows what.

 

[tnt1234]

Here are some other good ones:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?&lang=en

If you're going to use them, however, I'd caution that you learn how to interpret them. Especially the "total snow" maps, which are a misnomer and dont really show "total snow" depending on the totality of the weather. I often see people post a map that shows 13" of snow and they're giddy, when in reality it's really 4" inches of snow, and a bunch of sleet, hail, rain, freezing rain, and god knows what.

Thanks.

Sadly, if I am reading this right, the latest run is not any better - might even be a little worse?

 

[mriceyman]

Thanks.

Sadly, if I am reading this right, the latest run is not any better - might even be a little worse?

Cant be obsessed with every run 6 days out.. i know its not easy but especially with this storm many things can change the outcome. If the high in canada can push the storm further south than the mountains will be in good shape.. if this thing does cut expect snow to rain to snow


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[Rowsdower]

Chance for redemption Saturday?

 

[tnt1234]

I think I'm going to try to convince my buddy to go this weekend instead. Don't think it can happen, but I'm gonna try. Can't take the stress, and conditions look plenty good right now.

(Mountain forecast has 10-1/2" for Mansfield on Tues, but Wednes not in the forecast yet....but you can see the freeze line spiking....)

 

[Jully]

Cant be obsessed with every run 6 days out.. i know its not easy but especially with this storm many things can change the outcome. If the high in canada can push the storm further south than the mountains will be in good shape.. if this thing does cut expect snow to rain to snow


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+1

 

[Jully]

Here are some other good ones:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?&lang=en

If you're going to use them, however, I'd caution that you learn how to interpret them. Especially the "total snow" maps, which are a misnomer and dont really show "total snow" depending on the totality of the weather. I often see people post a map that shows 13" of snow and they're giddy, when in reality it's really 4" inches of snow, and a bunch of sleet, hail, rain, freezing rain, and god knows what.

+85,000. I love it when that happens.

 

[snoseek]

I'm saying another layer of glop at the cat with a couple inches of skiable snow on top to make it workable. This has been the trend so far this year when they call for rain and its been filling things in with dense snow that comes preconsolidated. Or it could just snow...that would be cool. Too early to sweat it

 

[deadheadskier]

I'm saying another layer of glop at the cat with a couple inches of skiable snow on top to make it workable. This has been the trend so far this year when they call for rain and its been filling things in with dense snow that comes preconsolidated. Or it could just snow...that would be cool. Too early to sweat it

Straight up snow would be great. 12" on the base they have now would be amazing. Outside of the windblown big Xmas week storm and 16" on zero base in November that they lost 90% of it's basically been nickle and dime builds. I've got a couple in the 7-9" range, but a real big blower or two before the end of the year would be sweet.

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[JDMRoma]

Straight up snow would be great. 12" on the base they have now would be amazing. Outside of the windblown bif Xmas week storm and 16" on zero base in November that they list 90% of it's basically been nickle and dime builds. I've got a couple in the 7-9" range, but a real big blower or two before the end of the year would be sweet.

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Before Summit would be sweet !



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[Rowsdower]

This one is getting further away. Wednesday looks like a total washout everywhere except maybe Maine.

 

[JDMRoma]

doesnt look bad to me


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[Rowsdower]

View attachment 21710doesnt look bad to me


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I was just looking at the updated model runs. Looked like more rain than was showing last night. Hopefully that changes tonight.

 

[Jully]

As usual the Cat will survive!

 

[snoseek]

As usual the Cat will survive!

I'm sticking with what I said before.

It would be nice for a couple feet of blower...sure. But the next best thing would be 7 inches of dense snow and a net gain.

This is still too far out to really know...If shit goes all snow or all rain that's great but outside of 48 hours is a trend and that's all

 

[BenedictGomez]

The Canadian model wouldnt be too bad. Wednesday would be the worst day, but it's really not a trainwreck. The GFS would be pretty bad for the Catskills though, and poor for most places, but at least the base is deep enough all over that it will hold up.

EDIT: Oh, and Pocono resorts of course would get roughly 30 hours of rain via GFS or 19 hours via Canuck. The Poconos are like the Job of the ski world. God bless them.

 

[Rowsdower]

The Canadian model wouldnt be too bad. Wednesday would be the worst day, but it's really not a trainwreck. The GFS would be pretty bad for the Catskills though, and poor for most places, but at least the base is deep enough all over that it will hold up.

EDIT: Oh, and Pocono resorts of course would get roughly 30 hours of rain via GFS or 19 hours via Canuck. The Poconos are like the Job of the ski world. God bless them.

I mean you can set your watch to the Poconos getting screwed. The years are rare when that doesn't happen anymore.

 

[tnt1234]

The Canadian model wouldnt be too bad. Wednesday would be the worst day, but it's really not a trainwreck. The GFS would be pretty bad for the Catskills though, and poor for most places, but at least the base is deep enough all over that it will hold up.

EDIT: Oh, and Pocono resorts of course would get roughly 30 hours of rain via GFS or 19 hours via Canuck. The Poconos are like the Job of the ski world. God bless them.

Tim Kelley just updated - he's, as usual, optimistic.

But jeez, temps plummet....hard to see how even a little rain isn't going to destroy the trees and natural terrain.

 

[tnt1234]

I mean you can set your watch to the Poconos getting screwed. The years are rare when that doesn't happen anymore.

The second best day I had all season was last year - that fluke storm....Feb? I think? ripped across PA - don't even think it snowed in the catskills. My daughter and I struggled through tough driving conditions and had about a foot of fresh at Blue mountain, and the roads were so risky, place wasn't even crowded. Next day was a snow day - two days after the storm. I went to work, and saw the longest lines I've ever seen on the web cams. Place was beyond crowded. One friend of mine drove to blue with his kids, so the ticket line out the door into the parking lot, got back in the car and drive to Jack Frost....

Anyway, that's the only time the pokes didn't get screwed and actually beat everyone else.

They did pretty well two winters ago too, but everyone did that year.

 

[Not Sure]

The second best day I had all season was last year - that fluke storm....Feb? I think? ripped across PA - don't even think it snowed in the catskills. My daughter and I struggled through tough driving conditions and had about a foot of fresh at Blue mountain, and the roads were so risky, place wasn't even crowded. Next day was a snow day - two days after the storm. I went to work, and saw the longest lines I've ever seen on the web cams. Place was beyond crowded. One friend of mine drove to blue with his kids, so the ticket line out the door into the parking lot, got back in the car and drive to Jack Frost....

Anyway, that's the only time the pokes didn't get screwed and actually beat everyone else.

They did pretty well two winters ago too, but everyone did that year.

That was a crazy storm , I bypassed Blue to go to a BC place of mine in Jim Thorpe only to find 12" with no base , killed my skis!
The cut off was crazy I don't think the "Actual" Poconos got more than 3" . I live 20 miles south of Blue and had 32" ,Blue claimed 2' but I doubt it was that much.