Roemer Report

[ccskier]

FLASH FROM ROEMER: 7-11" THURSDAY/FRIDAY--80% CHANCE-- 40% 11-16"; 30% CHANCE MORE

Anyone buying this? Right on the front of the Jay webpage. Hopefully will happen to get things started.

 

[riverc0il]

oh man, the roemer machine is in full effect. i have not kept detailed records, but this guy's accuracy rate is suspect. no doubt jay will be picking up snow this week, but i think it is in poor taste for a ski area to forecast a 30% chance long shot when there has yet to be any one make the call on the 80% seemingly sure shot. who knows, roemer hits the bullseye every once and a while and i'll be a happy man this weekend to be skinning over to tram side and dropping in from northway for freshies all day saturday. but when roemer doesn't hit the bullseye, he doesn't even hit the dart board.

 

[ccskier]

My big problem with the whole thing is that the Jay website says one thing and then Roemers site says another. His site is only calling for 1-2 one night then light accumulations. That sounds a lot different to me.

 

[riverc0il]

scott's forecast is in over on ski vtl as 4"-8" which is a heck of a lot less. scott almost always nails his forecasts, rarely hypes, and i don't think i have seen him get caught much by surprise. if there was even a remote chance of a foot or more, i think we would have heard the odds from other sources such as scott and NWS. what is roemer's site for comparision?

http://list.uvm.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A2=ind0612a&L=skivt-l&D=1&O=D&P=18566

 

[ccskier]

www.bestskiweather.com

 

[riverc0il]

ah, i should not have asked. nothing like a big call to sell subscriptions! must need to subscribe to get the forecast. man that site is a dog. don't mean to hate, but that is more hype than we have seen on AZ earlier this season :lol:

 

[ski_resort_observer]

The Bush used to pay for his service, people could even access the paid subscriber info thru the website. Some of the free ones have more accurate forecasts so why pay for one with the inferior product.

 

[Tin Woodsman]

Roemer is conflicted and full of crap. Close to zero credibility. Scott B. has a better record of accuracy, and it isn't particularly close.

I could see 6-10" at Jay, and Jay only, in the next 72 hours. Probably 4-8" total for Smuggs, Stowe, Bolton and then maybe 3-6" for SB/MRG. We'll have more info as the event approaches, but they could both be right in this case. Regardless, it's pretty irresponsible to throw big numbers like 11-16" out there. I'll be happy to be wrong.

 

[ctenidae]

NOAA's calling for a max 8-9 inches.

 

[ajl50]

Scott B. knows what's up big time. He's not sponsored or anything. I would believe what he writes over anything roemer writes. My guess is a 6-8 max.

 

[AdironRider]

I love how everyone is so critical of weather guys when we all know its just a crapshoot.

 

[Tin Woodsman]

I love how everyone is so critical of weather guys when we all know its just a crapshoot.

Not true. Some guys shoot more crap than others, and guys like Roemer and Herb Stevens fit that bill. Look who pays their bills and you'll see where their interests lie.

 

[koreshot]

Not true. Some guys shoot more crap than others, and guys like Roemer and Herb Stevens fit that bill. Look who pays their bills and you'll see where their interests lie.

Totally agree! Roemer screwed me a good 3 times with his BS, totally optimistic snow fall forecasts before I completely tuned him out. He is a liar.

 

[salida]

Snow fall ratios should be 20:1 (water, to snow in inches) for this bad boy. It'll be blower whatever falls. NWS is calling for 8-9 max. As has already been said I wouldn't be surprised to see Jay get a few inches more than Stowe/SB... Could put them in the 10-11in range. On top of what they have this week, it'll be enough to ski natural snow trails (maybe not to officially open them).

 

[Jay's Dip Powcher]

Is it only me or do others check as many different models and reports before making a very uninformed decision about what is supposed to fall with regards to snowfall amounts?
Roemer is only a small piece in the decision making pie.

 

[AdironRider]

Not true. Some guys shoot more crap than others, and guys like Roemer and Herb Stevens fit that bill. Look who pays their bills and you'll see where their interests lie.

So whats your point? Either way at best its an estimated guess. I guess Im in the minority who doesnt even give a damn about forcasted snowfalls or mt bs. I just show up and ride on what god gave me the night before.

 

[JimG.]

So whats your point? Either way at best its an estimated guess. I guess Im in the minority who doesnt even give a damn about forcasted snowfalls or mt bs. I just show up and ride on what god gave me the night before.

This is my philosophy...I ski in the rain so why would I care about any other kind of conditions? I don't cancel days off because it's not snowing. And if it is snowing when I look out my window in the early AM, I just take the day off and head NW.

 

[Tin Woodsman]

This is my philosophy...I ski in the rain so why would I care about any other kind of conditions? I don't cancel days off because it's not snowing. And if it is snowing when I look out my window in the early AM, I just take the day off and head NW.

Well that's great. For you. But some of us don't have that level of flexibility with our jobs and some of us need 5 hours to drive to their desired glisse location. For the vast majority of weekend warriors, having a good understanding of what to expect is a critical factor in deciding whether to come up at all. Furthermore, especially for a place with multiple aspects, it's critical to know as much as possible so you can select the area(s) you want to hit on the mountain.

 

[JimG.]

Well that's great. For you. But some of us don't have that level of flexibility with our jobs and some of us need 5 hours to drive to their desired glisse location. For the vast majority of weekend warriors, having a good understanding of what to expect is a critical factor in deciding whether to come up at all. Furthermore, especially for a place with multiple aspects, it's critical to know as much as possible so you can select the area(s) you want to hit on the mountain.

To me, it's less an issue of flexibility and more one of mindset.

I understand what you are saying here. Especially in the case of having to drive 5 hours to ski. But in my case, all that means is that I have to move closer to the hill.

I'm not trying to be annoying although I believe it might be seen that way. I guess the best way to put it is that I'm going to ski regardless because I have a limited number of days in the season to do so. The weather isn't going to stop me, so I try to not pay too close attention to it.

 

[from_the_NEK]

Jay has updated thier site to be more conservative:

6-10" possible from incoming storm Weds night/Thursday

That's on top of the 8-12" we've got since Sunday. Snowmaking is underway with an eye on expanding to Tramside this week and we've got more snow in the forecast for the end of this week. More news mountain conditions page here.

As far as I'm concerned Jay's marketing will get more respect if they under estimate storms and then end up getting more snow RATHER than disappointing people by over estimating and ending up with less.