Ski Resort Response to COVID-19

[icecoast1]

How is NY pulling off catching and fining people?

A lot of it was being left up to local authorities to enforce, which for a variety of reasons wasn't happening, yesterday the state announced they were going to start sending enforcment teams to airports to ensure the compliance is happening. I think they're also hoping people snitch on eachother and report the offenders

 

[prsboogie]

If you limit it to groups that arrived together, no different than riding in a car together.

Do they stop the gondi after each car empties to sanitize it?? Doubt it

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[jimmywilson69]

https://accd.vermont.gov/covid-19/restart/cross-state-travel

VT's non-quarantine areas are very limited. Obviously the need to quarantine takes most ski trips off the table. Either the situation improves, or the protocol changes.

Well based on this map, anyone who lives in an even somewhat populated county outside of Vermont, New Hampshire, and extreme upstate New York aren't technically allowed to go to VT.

Sure people are breaking the rules, but a lot of people aren't and this clearly spells trouble for the ski areas. Looks like my 2-3 trips to VT this winter will likely not happen...

While I'll miss the skiing, its the beer haul I'll mist the most :lol::lol::lol:

 

[mister moose]

This season is going to be different in other ways no one has discussed yet.

The trend to lower infection rates as low as possible has the effect of increasing the time needed for herd immunity, and increases the length of time the virus will be an economic and lifestyle factor. If there is no herd immunity possible with this virus, then there is also no vaccine. You still end up with a long virus duration. The industry cannot depend on a vaccine this season and if one is found and manufactured and distributed, it won't shift resort procedures before much of the season is over. After Presidents day, it's all downhill in revenue.

Resorts are looking at heavily reduced capacity and (based on A-basin and Southern Hemisphere) strong demand. They will need to replace that revenue somewhere, they will not have an appetite to lose money. The only way for that to happen is to find new revenue streams or increase prices. It will not surprise me if there are zero discounts available on peak days. No ticket 4 packs or ski club vouchers. Less spontaneity, more advance date commitment. Cutting longer lines and lotteries with a ski school private lesson may become more widely seen. Food, where available, will be more expensive.

Operating in weather where everyone seeks shelter throughout the day such as rain or extreme cold will be more limited, or we may even see closures.

To increase revenue to offset the reduced capacity, we may see new fees. Reservation fees, ticket processing fees, parking fees, shuttle fees, table fees.

Mountain owned/managed real estate may get priority on ticket lotteries. Who will book a condo if they can't get a ticket?

Condo sales will dwindle to a trickle, but prices won't fall. Rentals could be very strong. The Northeast has probably the nation's highest ratio of nearby population to ski areas, and seasonal rentals this season could be in high demand. More work from home people will move to ski towns for the winter and ski midweek.

An area like Okemo with a big reliance on remote lots with shuttle busses will need a big change. Open air seating might be the replacement. Resort shuttle busses will have 2/3 less capacity and they will need to have more of them. Lines will be longer and fees might be introduced.

Industry learn to ski specials will disappear. Casual interest level skiers just won't endure the travel, cost and reservation burden.

Ambassador programs should stay strong. Free labor will be even more valuable this season. Numbers will fall though as over 70 ambassadors opt out.

Opening day will be pushed back a week or two.

I'm expecting to go wine, beer and bottled cocktails in the food court, no bars open.

 

[deadheadskier]

Demand might be strong on seasonal rentals, but at least where I had been looking in the MWV, the supply has not increased. Apparently the shutdowns of Airbnbs last winter has not spooked owners enough to go the safer route by going seasonal vs short term.

Pre-Covid I had fully planned on doing a seasonal rental for this season. I'm 90% certain I will not be doing it now. I just don't see myself getting the value I hoped for as Wildcat hasn't announced how they plan on managing seasonal kids programs. Between that and not knowing what the lodge situation will be like (important when you have young kids) I'm just not feeling the investment will be good. I still look though and the agencies I have been working with have not added any inventory.


The work from home scenario you describe will definitely happen. Many city folks are opting to move to their vacation homes for this school year. I was reading an article the other day about it. The article stated that enrollment at the elementary school in Waterville Valley has more than doubled for next year from 17 students to 40. I imagine many resort towns are experiencing similar.

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[cdskier]

The work from home scenario you describe will definitely happen. Many city folks are opting to move to their vacation homes for this school year.

If there are still a lot of restrictions once ski season rolls around and if I can still work remotely essentially full-time, then I'd definitely be likely to consider installing Internet in my condo in VT and working from up there at least part of the winter.

 

[HowieT2]

Well based on this map, anyone who lives in an even somewhat populated county outside of Vermont, New Hampshire, and extreme upstate New York aren't technically allowed to go to VT.

Sure people are breaking the rules, but a lot of people aren't and this clearly spells trouble for the ski areas. Looks like my 2-3 trips to VT this winter will likely not happen...

While I'll miss the skiing, its the beer haul I'll mist the most :lol::lol::lol:

This is incorrect. People from the populated counties outside VT are allowed in to the state subject to the quarantine requirements. And those requirements dont necessarily entail quarantining for 2 weeks in VT. You can quarantine at home prior to traveling to vt or get tested, and provide contact information.

I was just up in VT for a week and followed the rules. It wasnt a problem. and I came home with shit ton of Lawsons.

 

[cdskier]

This is incorrect. People from the populated counties outside VT are allowed in to the state subject to the quarantine requirements. And those requirements dont necessarily entail quarantining for 2 weeks in VT. You can quarantine at home prior to traveling to vt or get tested, and provide contact information.

Yes you can quarantine at home for 2 weeks, but honestly, how many people are truly able (or willing) to do that? To be fully compliant with a "quarantine" means you can't leave your house for 14 full days (even to go out for a walk at home or get groceries). Even if you get tested, that still requires 7 days quarantine plus the negative test. And as soon as you leave VT, wouldn't the requirements reset? So if you're a weekend skier in VT that wants to go "home" midweek, it is simply impossible to meet the quarantine rules every week. For people that only do 1 or 2 trips it might be doable, but not for your "regulars".

As is right now in the summer I know people that are traveling to VT for vacation and not following those rules. In the winter when you have even more people there would be even more non-compliance.

 

[EPB]

You can quarantine at home prior to traveling to vt or get tested, and provide contact information.

So practically speaking, one just needs to pretend they quarantined at home and show up negative now?

 

[slatham]

Yes you can quarantine at home for 2 weeks, but honestly, how many people are truly able (or willing) to do that? To be fully compliant with a "quarantine" means you can't leave your house for 14 full days (even to go out for a walk at home or get groceries). Even if you get tested, that still requires 7 days quarantine plus the negative test. And as soon as you leave VT, wouldn't the requirements reset? So if you're a weekend skier in VT that wants to go "home" midweek, it is simply impossible to meet the quarantine rules every week. For people that only do 1 or 2 trips it might be doable, but not for your "regulars".

As is right now in the summer I know people that are traveling to VT for vacation and not following those rules. In the winter when you have even more people there would be even more non-compliance.

You can go for a walk during quarantine. The core premise is no contact with people. So yes, grocery shopping is out. And it doesn't automatically reset by crossing the state line. If you go home for a day and have zero contact then no reset.

The issue is if you/spouse work, or have kids in school, or some other required outside personal contact. The 14 day - or 7 day and negative test - just doesn't seem practical for a VT ski trip.

So we are left with either your home county falling below 400/million, or VT changes the rules.

 

[cdskier]

You can go for a walk during quarantine. The core premise is no contact with people. So yes, grocery shopping is out. And it doesn't automatically reset by crossing the state line. If you go home for a day and have zero contact then no reset.

Not according to VT on both statements that I highlighted in bold...
https://www.healthvermont.gov/sites...rt-observation-isolation-quarantine_final.pdf

 

[HowieT2]

Yes you can quarantine at home for 2 weeks, but honestly, how many people are truly able (or willing) to do that? To be fully compliant with a "quarantine" means you can't leave your house for 14 full days (even to go out for a walk at home or get groceries). Even if you get tested, that still requires 7 days quarantine plus the negative test. And as soon as you leave VT, wouldn't the requirements reset? So if you're a weekend skier in VT that wants to go "home" midweek, it is simply impossible to meet the quarantine rules every week. For people that only do 1 or 2 trips it might be doable, but not for your "regulars".

As is right now in the summer I know people that are traveling to VT for vacation and not following those rules. In the winter when you have even more people there would be even more non-compliance.

Agreed, people are being non compliant with the letter of the law but it is possible.

Its July so 5 months until ski season. The counties in NYS that have active cases above 400 per million (the quarantine threshold), are just above the threshold and decreasing for the most part. I don't want to get ahead myself, but I hope, the quarantine won't be an issue come December.

 

[HowieT2]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html#cases

So here's a link to the current data for NYS. unfortunately there is no information about "active cases" as Vermont defines it. But there is data for new cases over the past 7 days. Let's assume a new case remains "active" for 2 weeks. Westchester for example had 23/100k, that would be 460/million or just above the VT quarantine threshold. And new cases on 7/21 were 3.3/100k down from 4.3 2 weeks ago. Unfortunately there are other counties where the numbers are rising and that's a problem but the NYC metro counties basically look like westchester.

 

[Edd]

I go west for skiing nearly every year. Everyone in my group agrees we’re not willing to fly out there this coming season.

It’ll be interesting to see how Colorado fares with ski visits. I assume their business models rely on out of staters for skiing. A few will come, no doubt.

If Canada lifts restrictions on US residents crossing the border, I’d do a Quebec trip I think. Might get some weird vibes up there though.

 

[djd66]

I hate to say it, But I think this ski season could really suck. If numbers get worse and VT is completely shut down to out of stater's like me, I don't see how a lot of place will survive. Even if I can go, all the procedures that I am imagining will make things so it is just not worth it.

 

[Edd]

I hate to say it, But I think this ski season could really suck. If numbers get worse and VT is completely shut down to out of stater's like me, I don't see how a lot of place will survive. Even if I can go, all the procedures that I am imagining will make things so it is just not worth it.

I’d think the northeast areas stand a better chance than the western ones. They don’t come here. We go there. But not this year.


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[mikec142]

I'm holding out hope for some serious changes...I sprang for the Ikon unlimited this year instead of just doing Sugarbush quad packs. But if current restrictions hold, I will have a very hard time skiing in VT (I live in NJ) and an even harder time getting out west. I bought because if I recall correctly you can elect to roll over your pass to the following year. Hoping for the best.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I go west for skiing nearly every year. Everyone in my group agrees we’re not willing to fly out there this coming season.

I'd have no fear going out west to ski. I'd rent a condo & a rental car as per usual. The "sacrifices" or COVID19 specific changes I'd make (assuming the trip is pre-vaccine) is that I'd avoid indoor restaurants & gondolas.

if current restrictions hold, I will have a very hard time skiing in VT (I live in NJ) and an even harder time getting out west.

Depends where you live in NJ. I just got back tonight from 5.5 days in Vermont, and there's less COVID19 in my NJ county than there is in the county Smuggler's North / Stowe are located in, much less Burlington.

 

[Zand]

I've already flown this summer and everything seemed like it was being done safely. I'll have no problem traveling to more isolated places like Jackson, Big Sky, Steamboat, etc this winter if things stay similar to how they are now. Madhouses like Utah and Summit County are a different story. Staying the hell away from Florida for a while.

 

[JimG.]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html#cases

So here's a link to the current data for NYS. unfortunately there is no information about "active cases" as Vermont defines it. But there is data for new cases over the past 7 days. Let's assume a new case remains "active" for 2 weeks. Westchester for example had 23/100k, that would be 460/million or just above the VT quarantine threshold. And new cases on 7/21 were 3.3/100k down from 4.3 2 weeks ago. Unfortunately there are other counties where the numbers are rising and that's a problem but the NYC metro counties basically look like westchester.

.
My county in NY suddenly jumped to restricted because the 2 prisons (Greenhaven and Fishkill) added their numbers in.

Because you know prisoners want to go skiing too.

This season is going to be interesting and even more ridiculousness is ahead.