Ski Resort Response to COVID-19

[Not Sure]

CDC estimates that the current number of people affected by COVID-19 is actually 10 times the actual number they have since many were either asymptomatic or had minor symptoms and never were tested!


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I have a friend who put off a minor surgery from March .He was required to be tested before surgery last month and tested positive no symptoms at all .

 

[1dog]

Well this is interesting! Hopefully no more shut downs!


https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...s-as-primary-virus-control-method/ar-BB19TBUo


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Lockdowns do seem to prolong the spread - Sweden had it pretty bad for a while , but now are below the rest of Euro-Zone and they never closed down completely. ( and yes, understand they are more homogeneous than US,w what 5-7milliion population?)
I live in a yellow zone ( today) but some of my ski buds are in red zones - and test every week for their jobs. They are supposed to quarantine?

I feel for the sugery guy who put it off - one of my customers in medical field had a great point - 'we should see a definite drop in influenza this year just due to masks and hand-washing'.

It still a good visual to have Americans - no matter what your leanings are - to see an overweight, not that healthy 74+ year old get it and recover - so far.

Same with Christie - how do cap-intensive, seasonal businesses survive though? I think its gotta be tough with debt service and those employment numbers from Jay - down quite a bit. No border opening and no HB work visas for help.


Yet stock market keeps moving and outlook is mostly positive. How can that be?

Its a baffling world these days . .

 

[Not Sure]

WHO back peddling on Lock downs .

 

[abc]

Yet stock market keeps moving and outlook is mostly positive. How can that be?

Stock market doesn't always reflect economy. In fact, sometimes it doesn't bear any resemblance to real economy.

Did you notice your money in the bank is earner zero interests? Well, maybe you'll do better pulling the money and pile it into the stock market? Anyway, that's what many people are doing, and the all the money flowing into the stock market is keeping it up.

 

[Mailman]

Vermont's metric of active cases per million of population seems to be flawed given the number of known active cases is largely driven by the volume of tests administered.

For example, today's statistics have VT and NY with similar positive test rates over the past 7 days. VT has recorded a 1.1% positive rate in that period and NY has recorded 1.2%. However, during the same period, NY has recorded 7.1 new cases per 100,000 while VT has recorded only 1.9.

Dividing the number of positive tests by the positive rate, it is apparent that in that period, NY tested approx 600 people per 100,000 of population, while VT tested only around 170 per 100,000 of population.

If the positive test rates are similar, it is reasonable to assume that that the number of active cases per 100,000 (or per million) are somewhat similar, but if the testing program in one state is significantly more rigorous than the other, the number of confirmed active cases is going to be higher in the state that has the higher testing frequency.

I think it's probable that the actual numbers of cases per million are pretty similar across the areas VT has included in the map, and that the higher numbers of active cases shown on the map are the result of higher testing rates in other states. This is probably why most travel restrictions are driven by the positive test rate in addition to number of cases (either a ratio of new cases or total active cases metric) to provide a more balanced and accurate view of what is really happening.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Yet stock market keeps moving and outlook is mostly positive. How can that be? Its a baffling world these days . .

Because the US economy is doing far better than anyone could have possible imagined.

Obviously you have trouble spots like airlines, cruises, hotels, etc.., but generally speaking nobody thought the economy could have held up as well as it has. So there's that, and markets always look forward, and not only will 2021 have some of the easiest YoY comps in decades, but there is a belief that there will be greater pent-up-demand for all sorts of consumer behaviours than at any time since perhaps WWII.

 

[flakeydog]

If the positive test rates are similar, it is reasonable to assume that that the number of active cases per 100,000 (or per million) are somewhat similar, but if the testing program in one state is significantly more rigorous than the other, the number of confirmed active cases is going to be higher in the state that has the higher testing frequency.

Actually, If I am not mistaken, the positivity rate as it relates to the overall testing rate is somewhat important. As the testing rate (as a function of the total population) increases, the expectation is that the positivity rate would decrease. If the positivity rate increases or even stays flat as a greater percentage of the population is tested, it usually suggests that there is still community spread at or above the level of the group that required testing.

Think of it this way, the population we test first (especially when testing resources are scarce) are those we feel require it- those with symptoms or those that we feel were exposed to others that had the virus. Once that population has been tested, we expand our reach to include others in the community where it would be nice to know if the virus was present. This would include groups like returning students, an entire staff of a company, or anyone else that felt they wanted to be tested. If the virus is not spreading in the community, the positivity rate should continue to fall as more and more people get tested.

If NY tests 3X more people (normalized per capita) than VT and it has the same positivity rate, that tells me there is more virus present and yet undiscovered in NY than VT hence the conclusion that the average person from NY has a higher risk of exposure from his/her surrounding community than the average person in VT. We are trying to keep COVID out of VT, not establish some sort of viral equilibrium across state lines.

 

[jimk]

It still a good visual to have Americans - no matter what your leanings are - to see an overweight, not that healthy 74+ year old get it and recover - so far.

Same with Christie
Yet stock market keeps moving and outlook is mostly positive. How can that be?

Its a baffling world these days . .

My 75 year old brother with a pacemaker, and about as overweight as the prez, tested positive for it on sep 1st. he had two days where he was feeling poorly enough to stay down in bed, but otherwise back to normal in about a week and a half. Is there a less deadly mutation out there now that people are more commonly getting, I don't know? Had a lengthy conversation with him about it all. One of his statements was that he met the monster and the monster wasn't so bad. But he's as mystified by it as the rest of us, because an acquaintance of his (that he was not in contact with) died from it at the same time he was recovering from it.

 

[drjeff]

My 75 year old brother with a pacemaker, and about as overweight as the prez, tested positive for it on sep 1st. he had two days where he was feeling poorly enough to stay down in bed, but otherwise back to normal in about a week and a half. Is there a less deadly mutation out there now that people are more commonly getting, I don't know? Had a lengthy conversation with him about it all. One of his statements was that he met the monster and the monster wasn't so bad. But he's as mystified by it as the rest of us, because an acquaintance of his (that he was not in contact with) died from it at the same time he was recovering from it.

The reality is that viruses, on a basic cellular level, want to live. And what historically has happened many times over the years, is a virus that may initially be very potent with a high mortality rate of the host it infects (and hence when the host dies, the virus may die as well), often will mutate into a less virulent entity, where the mortality to the host it infects does decrease, thus allowing the virus to "live" on over time.

There was an article in the New York Times about this basic topic in the early Summer if I recall correctly

 

[Glade Monkey]

The reality is that viruses, on a basic cellular level, want to live. And what historically has happened many times over the years, is a virus that may initially be very potent with a high mortality rate of the host it infects (and hence when the host dies, the virus may die as well), often will mutate into a less virulent entity, where the mortality to the host it infects does decrease, thus allowing the virus to "live" on over time.

There was an article in the New York Times about this basic topic in the early Summer if I recall correctly

Latest case of reinfection in US and researchers found two distinct strains of the virus. His second bout was much more severe.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext

 

[Harvey]

Because the US economy is doing far better than anyone could have possible imagined.

We spent 3 trillion on Covid in maybe 3 months. (for reference we spent 6 trillion on the Iraq war over more than a decade.)

That could have something to do with it.

"Better" is relative. Highest unemployment ever, by a big margin. If you are unemployed and/or work in an industry that is shuttered, you may have a different view.)

 

[nhskier1969]

We spent 3 trillion on Covid in maybe 3 months. (for reference we spent 6 trillion on the Iraq war over more than a decade.)

That could have something to do with it.

"Better" is relative. Highest unemployment ever, by a big margin. If you are unemployed and/or work in an industry that is shuttered, you may have a different view.)

I agree about the unemployment. I know 8x more people that are unemployed than have the virus.

Also I would like to see how much less the average employed American made this year vs last.

Lastly, I would love to see Heart and flu deaths this year vs previous years.

 

[VTKilarney]

Latest case of reinfection in US and researchers found two distinct strains of the virus. His second bout was much more severe.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext

Take this with a big grain of salt. There has only been one known individual who has been reinfected. It is very possible that this individual is immunocompromised or has some other peculiarity that does not apply to the public at large.

One person does not a trend make.

 

[machski]

Take this with a big grain of salt. There has only been one known individual who has been reinfected. It is very possible that this individual is immunocompromised or has some other peculiarity that does not apply to the public at large.

One person does not a trend make.

True VTKilarney, but read the article. They noted no known or found immune compromising issues with this patient. The authors did note that they may be reporting on a case where the initial infection went dormant and then came back, however they note the mutation seen in the viral samples would show a viral mutation rate previously unseen in Sars-Cov2.

The one thing that surprises me is one possibility left out on why the second symptomatic event may have been worse. Given the short timeframe, isn't it possible the patient's system was weaken by the first bout and not yet back up to full strength when the second occured? Could the severity of symptoms not have been due to that rather than the virus being more virolent?

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[BenedictGomez]

Latest case of reinfection in US and researchers found two distinct strains of the virus. His second bout was much more severe.

That's the part I found most odd, as I would have presumed the first SARS infection would have conferred him with a certain degree of cross-reactive immunity to a very similar SARS-COV infection, which, while not protecting him from getting the second infection, one would think it would make it less serious than the first via the recent immunological memory. I'm sure they're looking hard at analyzing the sequencing as we speak.

That said, there are 1,001 unknown variables in this lone case, so I wouldnt read too much into it either way other than to say it's interesting. And of course the fact that the media is, once again, using it to scare the ever-loving hell out of as many Americans as they possibly can.

 

[nhskier1969]

This may have been discussed already but I was wondering what the resorts plan to do when we have the -20 below wind chills we get several times per year. Where are people going to get warm?

 

[jimmywilson69]

your car

Wear better gear

ski harder

 

[mikec142]

your car

Wear better gear

ski harder

Pretty much it. While it wouldn't be my first choice, I'm okay skiing in the real cold weather. I bundle up and make a go of it. I'm sure I'm not the first one to say it, but there's no such thing as bad weather, there's just bad gear.

I'm planning on taking breaks (if needed) in my car. Certainly not ideal. But I don't see a ton of great alternatives.

I'd love to see ski areas set up some sort of tent system with outdoor heaters. But frankly, on real cold and windy days, it won't be much help.

 

[Newpylong]

If there are less tables, (even with the lodges at 50%), there will be more room to go in and warm up. Also, less people will be out riding in general on these days anyway.

 

[nhskier1969]

Pretty much it. While it wouldn't be my first choice, I'm okay skiing in the real cold weather. I bundle up and make a go of it. I'm sure I'm not the first one to say it, but there's no such thing as bad weather, there's just bad gear.

I'm planning on taking breaks (if needed) in my car. Certainly not ideal. But I don't see a ton of great alternatives.

I'd love to see ski areas set up some sort of tent system with outdoor heaters. But frankly, on real cold and windy days, it won't be much help.

I skied with my family at Ellen a couple years back. It was one of those 15 below wind chill days. So I started us out on Lower FIS. The runout really warmed us up. But the warmth on those days only last so long.

Maybe a good year to buy a onesies