Snow..coming ???

[Euler]

I was optimistic when I went to bed, and upon waking this morning, back to confused.

This storm has huge

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potential.

Catskills looking great, other than that I'm not very snoptimistic right now.

 

[VTKilarney]

Epic snow is coming. I’m in the Caribbean.

 

[urungus]

Now it's 0.9%.

As some of us previously Platty skiers bought MAX. I felt a bit conflicted about going to Belleayre instead of Platty. But with MAX pass going away, I'd like to take advantage of it and go to Belleayre this year.

Exactly how I feel as a Max Pass owner.

But there is always next year!

What about Windham? It’s also on the Max Pass and looks to be getting a foot plus of snow. Never been to either place. My understanding is that Belleayre is typically less crowded, but I am hesitant to go there because the advanced trails look pretty short.

 

[drjeff]

SoVT realism here..... From Mount Snow's own snow report, and from long term experience, their paid met is usually a touch conservative, but not that far off the vast majority of the time in precip types and quantities....

They're calling for 2-5" tomorrow in their latest snow report from this morning

On the plus side, the new gear box for the Bluebird has been installed, and after some testing this morning/today, the Bluebird should be back online at some point today....

 

[cdskier]

What about Windham? It’s also on the Max Pass and looks to be getting a foot plus of snow. Never been to either place. My understanding is that Belleayre is typically less crowded, but I am hesitant to go there because the advanced trails look pretty short.

They may be somewhat short, but they are a lot of fun and I prefer them to Windham's advanced terrain. They typically have a good mix of trails that are groomed flat and others that are fully bumped up.

 

[Glenn]

NWS Albany (tends to be conservative as well) is calling for 4-8" in the Southern Greens with isolated 10" in spots. Once you get out of the Greens and into Southern Windham county, totals drop off a bit. No watches or advisories there as of now. We'll take what we can get in SoVT. Some heavy snow will do wonders. May not bring the woods into play, but will really help with resurfacing existing terrain.

drjeff,
Safe travels! I've had some white knuckle rides taking the backroads from 30, through South Newfane and into East Dover. Unplowed roads at 6:30AM after a good storm. Good times!

 

[sankaty]

Latest NAM still has big snows into S VT. 20"+
Hopefully, the Euro converges with the other guidance at 12Z.

My main thoughts are that I'm glad I don't make a living forecasting this storm. Ski areas aside, the guidance shows a range of 0-24" for many highly populated lowland areas in the NE in the next 48 hours, and it's not immediately obvious which is correct. I'd be inclined to go on the low side, but I wouldn't want my paycheck to depend on it.

 

[rocks860]

I think I’m gonna go with mount snow for saturday


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[BenedictGomez]

The NAM is now the only model showing massive snows, and the NAM is almost always wrong.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I follow a ton of mets on Facebook. You know it's a tough storm for them to figure out when few have to balls to put out snowmaps and they're all waiting until the last possible minute to do so.

Here's one from this morning, one of only 2 I've seen today. Wimps!

 

[St. Bear]

Matt Noyes calling for 12"+ in So. Greens and Berks.
https://twitter.com/MattNBCBoston/status/969229952766873606?s=19

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[sankaty]

The NAM is now the only model showing massive snows, and the NAM is almost always wrong.

What counts as massive? The 6Z GFS was showing about 20" for the Cats. The 12Z RGEM 15"+.

Agree that the relying on the NAM on its own is unwise. I just noticed that the 3K NAM using the Kuchera method shows spot 75" amounts for the Catskills. You can bank on that!

I really do think that the Catskills are in a good spot for 12-24", though.

 

[lerops]

The NAM is now the only model showing massive snows, and the NAM is almost always wrong.

LOL


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[cdskier]

What counts as massive? The 6Z GFS was showing about 20" for the Cats.

The 12Z GFS still appears to be showing similar high amounts for the Cats as well.

Looking very much like tomorrow is going to be a "play it by ear" type of scenario for my normal drive up to VT. The I87 corridor is so borderline. NWS Area Forecast Discussion really highlights the difficulty they are having as well. The difference between heavy rain and heavy snow is only a couple degrees...

 

[tnt1234]

What about Windham? It’s also on the Max Pass and looks to be getting a foot plus of snow. Never been to either place. My understanding is that Belleayre is typically less crowded, but I am hesitant to go there because the advanced trails look pretty short.

Yeah, that is true about bell. But the runs off the Tomahawk have little to no run out, and have pockets of trees, and bike trails to play in - obviously this is more interesting later int eh day tomorrow or saturday, as they are brown now.

There is also a fun, all natural hike to trail on the opposite side that is nice, and with some skiable trees on teh right. Just be careful or you end up down at the road.

Finally, the Dream Catcher Glade - again, when open, which hopefully will be tomorrow PM or Saturday - is great - about 800 vert of nice uninterrupted trees.

 

[tnt1234]

Just booked rooms in teh catskills for tonight and tomorrow. Hope the forecast holds.

Bell or Hunter tomorrow, Platty on Saturday.

 

[BenedictGomez]

The difference between heavy rain and heavy snow is only a couple degrees...

Paying attention to "real world" temps versus modeled temps will the absolute key thing to look at once this starts.

 

[Oz Von Toco]

Also booked up for Catskills with some buddies. Another buddy is chancing it in SoVT. Hoping it works out for all of us. Hunter tomorrow and belleayre or windham Saturday, does windham have tree runs? I didn't love belle the one time I was there but the trees were not in play that day. And who doesn't like to play in the trees?


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[BenedictGomez]

FWIW, if the models are correct I dont think many people will be skiing tomorrow.

 

[bdfreetuna]

FWIW, if the models are correct I dont think many people will be skiing tomorrow.

View attachment 23375

explain?