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Storm speculation Dec 6-7
- Thread starter troy
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andrec10
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At this point, lets not speculate! Lets just pray for colder weather! More Sacrifice's to ULLR!
I'm not too jazzed up about it right now--probably delayed into Wed. And the track--as vague as it is right now--just doesn't seem good with the trend of things being pulled inland too much--the main trough of low pressure. Could be more of a r*&# maker with snow further into VT/NY. A couple of the indices we watch (AO and NAO...I think NEK alluded to these earlier) indicate a reversal but I'm not quite buying it just yet. Certainly worth tracking though, and we will be!
andrec10
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Cold pattern setting in on Wed! Thank God!
Last edited:
No kidding. 50 this morning, again, on my way into work. It's depressing.
Yeah, while things may not gel for Tues/Wed, at least temps cool off for massive snowmaking the rest of the week. We're still watching Thur/Fri for possible storm development too--with a major upper level trough approaching and disturbances to our southwest, we'll be watchfull for something snapping into formation.
hammer
Active member
Is we looking at a real pattern shift or just another temporary cool down?
BenedictGomez
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andrec10
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It's never going to snow again.
Thats not even funny! Saying that around thses parts can get you banned, even in jest! :uzi:
BTW, this looks like the pattern shift we have all been waiting for!
This one should last a while. I've been helping a friend build a massive backyard ice rink and am planning on flooding it this week or weekend.
billski
Active member
I can't believe I'm getting excited about a dusting of snow, certain to melt during the daytime.
I can only hope the downward trend helps. My dad used to say, temps right below freezing were a strong harbinger of storms to come. Old age wisdom, without the science.
I can only hope the downward trend helps. My dad used to say, temps right below freezing were a strong harbinger of storms to come. Old age wisdom, without the science.
bigbog
Active member
I know what you mean....the temp gauge does look like a slow turnaround...
drjeff
Well-known member
I can say with 100% certainty that with this coming storm, I'll be way more happy with what the THERMOMETER is at once the storm is done, than what the ruler is reading!
billski
Active member
Winnchill says:
"Friday--Deep upper level low pressure (just what we want to see) sets up over Hudson Bay which will be close enough to send reinforcing cold air our way! Still some moisture lingers for continued snow showers for northern resorts.
Saturday and Sunday--Reinforcing COLD! The core of the trough presses in--residual snow showers/flurries subside Saturday but all-out snowmaking continues. Breezy and very cold with windchills! A light batch of snow showers may skim by to our north Sunday--CT"
Lionel says
"Beyond that over the weekend we will likely get a shot of reinforcing cold air and possibly tap some great lakes moisture for an upslope event. But that’s a ways off.
Looking LONG term, the forecast looks more wintery than it has in months. Currently the NAO, AO and PNA are all in just about the worst state for EC cold and snow. However, as show below, the ensemble forecasts for all three teleconnections show a return to a more neutral state."
Roger says
"Snow you say - Not so much. Some minor covering on grassy surfaces once again perhaps for Tuesday night and again Friday, but again woefully little for snow lovers looking for a good snow shoe, skiers and snow boarders.... In about two weeks I will be frantic over this but not yet."
THIS GUY at WGGB is really wound up about it:
What controlled substance is he on? I want some!
Matty says
A shot of colder-than-normal air at the end of this week will mark the first prolonged chill of winter for New England, but this week's 8 to 14 day forecast reveals the pattern is not likely to hold for the Northeast. A trough in the jet stream will remain in place across the Western United States, and that's where the coldest air will pool next week, with the mean storm track developing along the eastern edge of the cold dome - likely to run through the center of the country. This puts the Eastern United States on the warm side of a frontal boundary, yet again. That said, a fast jet stream wind aloft, steering several energetic disturbances, will allow for one moderate storm near the beginning of the week that will briefly tap tropical moisture before high pressure builds across the Southeast US later in the week. Here in the Northeast, the active jet stream pattern will likely pull just enough cold air southward to keep near-normal temperatures in Northern Maine, but also will bring a couple of energetic disturbances through that may produce rain or snow - one Tuesday or Wednesday, and another toward the end of the week or weekend."
And to make you feel a wee bit better, EOTS almanac speaks up
"A very warm spell was just ending here on the eve of the bombing of Pearl Harbor on this date in 1941. Burlington set its December record of 67 on the 5th, while St. Johnsbury was 52 on the 6th. Light rain fell, and was remembered by a local WWII veteran, who told me he ruined a new pair of shoes as he waited outside to enlist. In spite of that warmth, and even a thaw at Christmas, there was snow on the ground for Christmas Day."
I think I'll take the guy with the hallucinogenics
"Friday--Deep upper level low pressure (just what we want to see) sets up over Hudson Bay which will be close enough to send reinforcing cold air our way! Still some moisture lingers for continued snow showers for northern resorts.
Saturday and Sunday--Reinforcing COLD! The core of the trough presses in--residual snow showers/flurries subside Saturday but all-out snowmaking continues. Breezy and very cold with windchills! A light batch of snow showers may skim by to our north Sunday--CT"
Lionel says
"Beyond that over the weekend we will likely get a shot of reinforcing cold air and possibly tap some great lakes moisture for an upslope event. But that’s a ways off.
Looking LONG term, the forecast looks more wintery than it has in months. Currently the NAO, AO and PNA are all in just about the worst state for EC cold and snow. However, as show below, the ensemble forecasts for all three teleconnections show a return to a more neutral state."
Roger says
"Snow you say - Not so much. Some minor covering on grassy surfaces once again perhaps for Tuesday night and again Friday, but again woefully little for snow lovers looking for a good snow shoe, skiers and snow boarders.... In about two weeks I will be frantic over this but not yet."
THIS GUY at WGGB is really wound up about it:
Matty says
A shot of colder-than-normal air at the end of this week will mark the first prolonged chill of winter for New England, but this week's 8 to 14 day forecast reveals the pattern is not likely to hold for the Northeast. A trough in the jet stream will remain in place across the Western United States, and that's where the coldest air will pool next week, with the mean storm track developing along the eastern edge of the cold dome - likely to run through the center of the country. This puts the Eastern United States on the warm side of a frontal boundary, yet again. That said, a fast jet stream wind aloft, steering several energetic disturbances, will allow for one moderate storm near the beginning of the week that will briefly tap tropical moisture before high pressure builds across the Southeast US later in the week. Here in the Northeast, the active jet stream pattern will likely pull just enough cold air southward to keep near-normal temperatures in Northern Maine, but also will bring a couple of energetic disturbances through that may produce rain or snow - one Tuesday or Wednesday, and another toward the end of the week or weekend."
And to make you feel a wee bit better, EOTS almanac speaks up
"A very warm spell was just ending here on the eve of the bombing of Pearl Harbor on this date in 1941. Burlington set its December record of 67 on the 5th, while St. Johnsbury was 52 on the 6th. Light rain fell, and was remembered by a local WWII veteran, who told me he ruined a new pair of shoes as he waited outside to enlist. In spite of that warmth, and even a thaw at Christmas, there was snow on the ground for Christmas Day."
I think I'll take the guy with the hallucinogenics
billski
Active member
Wed night/Thurs AM is looking better--I like the chances of a decent storm as the upper level trough through central Canada sets it, especially with the additional system arriving from the southwest so you may see some updated accumulations for that. There is so much going on with this pattern that it's been hard to time these systems and which one flares up the most, especially with a quasi-stalled frontal system lying through the northeast.
billski
Active member
Yeah, but not everyone is buying into that. Still seems too "far away" to put money on (based on my past experience, which ain't worth much!)
billski
Active member
Eric @ MRG sez
"Greetings MRG Skiers,
Well folks we are getting a dose of rain and fog today and we are back to zero snow on the mountain. Temps have been pretty darn balmy of late but have no fear because a return to Winter-like weather is coming soon. So says the Single Chair Weather Blog! You can also check out the newly refreshed RAMP Weather Page to check out current conditions and latest forecasts. We are psyched for the real stuff but be aware that our snow guns (all 3 of 'em) are at the ready and we will commence snowmaking operations as soon as temps allow. The plan is to open as soon as we possibly can, so lets all keep our fingers and toes crossed."
http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/
"Greetings MRG Skiers,
Well folks we are getting a dose of rain and fog today and we are back to zero snow on the mountain. Temps have been pretty darn balmy of late but have no fear because a return to Winter-like weather is coming soon. So says the Single Chair Weather Blog! You can also check out the newly refreshed RAMP Weather Page to check out current conditions and latest forecasts. We are psyched for the real stuff but be aware that our snow guns (all 3 of 'em) are at the ready and we will commence snowmaking operations as soon as temps allow. The plan is to open as soon as we possibly can, so lets all keep our fingers and toes crossed."
http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/
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