Storm speculation Dec 6-7

[Bene288]

I usually don't follow this, but it's prediction is really not too far off.

Farmer's Almanac weather for Dec. 2011/Catskills

DECEMBER 2011: temperature 29° (5° above avg. north, 1° below south); precipitation 3" (avg.); Dec 1-4: Rainy periods, quite mild;
Dec 5-8: Flurries, seasonable;
Dec 9-16: Snow showers; mild, then cold;
Dec 17-21: Blizzard, then windy, cold;
Dec 22-23: Heavy snow, seasonable; Dec 24-29: Snow showers, mild;
Dec 30-31: Sunny, cold.

If this is accurate, I'll be spending my Christmas break on the slopes.

 

[LiquidFeet]

I've been trying to find this stuff online but all I get is "last updated 2005." Can you provide the links?

 

[billski]

I've been trying to find this stuff online but all I get is "last updated 2005." Can you provide the links?

You can find them all here. Right click for the link or just click on the image.
http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/


Welcome!

 

[billski]

I
Dec 9-16: Snow showers; mild, then cold;
Dec 17-21: Blizzard, then windy, cold;

Blizzard? Did I hear blizzard? I'll have my bags packed and get pre-positioned at Magic where the lifts keep turning no matter what the winds do! Oh darn, I may have to ski in the woods to find the deep stuff.

'cmon Ullr!

 

[billski]

I usually don't follow this, but it's prediction is really not too far off.

Farmer's Almanac weather for Dec. 2011/Catskills

I will go with any forecast that says what I want to hear. When it doesn't pan out, I call them incompetent.

 

[drjeff]

Getting better, especially across the recently winter weather "screwed" areas of the Berkshires and So. VT. Starting to trend both colder and with a greater amount of available moisture!

Somewhere in that general vicinity could be talking a foot by the time the storm finishes up on Thursday!

 

[billski]

nice

Nice

 

[billski]

Powderfreak comments over at americanwx:

"Well the 00z GFS is now about as far NW as I want this, lol. I never expected this. I may have to actually eat my hat if that GFS verifies.

Now I am scared with 24-30 hours still to go. I really never believed this would cut over SNE mainland like GFS is showing.

I can believe how it happens though as I've been very in tune with what is supposed to be happening at the summit of Mansfield for snowmaking operations (ie start times and run times at various elevations), and the cold air just keeps getting delayed with each model run. This change has botched our schedule up as we had crews in tonight based on even last night's 00z guidance of having the H85 freezing line swing through after midnight tonight... now its like midnight tomorrow night. The crew tonight is basically sitting on their thumbs and have no chance of making snow. "

...
"I know you guys don't care about snowmaking temps and what not, but what happens up here at the summit level really has big implications further south and east. Last year we always saw the cold come in sooner at that H85 or H87 level, and thus the tick SE usually... with this storm it is taking its sweet time and keeps getting delayed. "

 

[BenedictGomez]

Where do you go on the NOAA site to get these now? I used to have it, but they changed it towards the end of last season, and now all I can get to are those contours graphs (which I dont really like).

 

[WinnChill]

Powderfreak comments over at americanwx:

"Well the 00z GFS is now about as far NW as I want this, lol. I never expected this. I may have to actually eat my hat if that GFS verifies.

Now I am scared with 24-30 hours still to go. I really never believed this would cut over SNE mainland like GFS is showing.

I can believe how it happens though as I've been very in tune with what is supposed to be happening at the summit of Mansfield for snowmaking operations (ie start times and run times at various elevations), and the cold air just keeps getting delayed with each model run. This change has botched our schedule up as we had crews in tonight based on even last night's 00z guidance of having the H85 freezing line swing through after midnight tonight... now its like midnight tomorrow night. The crew tonight is basically sitting on their thumbs and have no chance of making snow. "

...
"I know you guys don't care about snowmaking temps and what not, but what happens up here at the summit level really has big implications further south and east. Last year we always saw the cold come in sooner at that H85 or H87 level, and thus the tick SE usually... with this storm it is taking its sweet time and keeps getting delayed. "

Yeah, it's been very tough forecasting this stuff (isn't it always?). We had to shift some things around too. Looks like S VT areas (K-ton through Stratton) favored tonight.

 

[LiquidFeet]

You can find them all here. Right click for the link or just click on the image.
http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/
Welcome!

Wow. Thanks.

 

[Glenn]

This is just what SoVT needs to jump start things....c'mon snow!

 

[billski]

Where do you go on the NOAA site to get these now? I used to have it, but they changed it towards the end of last season, and now all I can get to are those contours graphs (which I dont really like).

Each map comes from a different forecast office: Burlington, Albany, Taunton, Gray (Maine), Binghampton, etc. They came together last year, not every forecast office was doing them and none of them post it at the same place.
You have to look for the words "Storm Total Forecast"

for example, for grey maine,
the url is http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/
followed by the forecast office "gyx" in this case.
Now you stare at the page looking fo the STF.
aha, ...Latest Snowfall Forecasts, Observations and Archive... click on it.

Now suppose I go to Albany.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly
OK, duh, what do I see. Duh.
Well, I can't find a link to it. So I begin browsing the tree.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/
Of course, there it is, In the PAST folder.:dunce: obviously :dunce:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/StormTotalSnowFcst.png

You can thank me and others who ferreted out this stuff.

Go here to find even more:
http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/total_snowfall_forecast.html

 

[BenedictGomez]

Each map comes from a different forecast office: Burlington, Albany, Taunton, Gray (Maine), Binghampton, etc. They came together last year, not every forecast office was doing them and none of them post it at the same place.
You have to look for the words "Storm Total Forecast"

Thanks, very helpful and bookmarked (yet again). They used to be much easier to find, now it's like they dont want you to find them

 

[billski]

Thanks, very helpful and bookmarked (yet again). They used to be much easier to find, now it's like they dont want you to find them

Each office seems to run to a different drummer. It's funny when two WFO maps abut and the snow totals don't agree across the line!

Oh, and I forgot to say, they change the locations around a lot :uzi:

 

[billski]

Such a beautiful picture (chart)

 

[millerm277]

Good news for all: Just switched over to all snow here at low elevation in Binghamton, NY. That wasn't supposed to happen until 1AM originally according to the NOAA forecast, and it's colder out than forecast. Storm may be better than expected.

 

[jaywbigred]

Dancin I be!

 

[billski]

Serious stuff coming down at K

 

[skidmarks]

Serious stuff coming down at K

As luck would have it we're going to Killington this weekend!!