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Strongest El Nino Ever
- Thread starter oldtimer
- Start date
slatham
Well-known member
"Strongest El Nino ever" is a bit much IMHO based on what I read from the various services that I follow. Strong, ok. Strongest ever, no.
There are other, significant factors at play, including the warm water in the Eastern Pacific which helped create the last 2 rather enjoyable winters. That warm water still persists. And there are very few El Nino winters with this set up, so little direct precedent (not many good analogue years).
I've seen 2 forecasts for this upcoming winter and both are colder and snowier than average, though maybe not as bullish as the last two winters.
In the meantime, THINK SNOW!!!!!!!!!!
There are other, significant factors at play, including the warm water in the Eastern Pacific which helped create the last 2 rather enjoyable winters. That warm water still persists. And there are very few El Nino winters with this set up, so little direct precedent (not many good analogue years).
I've seen 2 forecasts for this upcoming winter and both are colder and snowier than average, though maybe not as bullish as the last two winters.
In the meantime, THINK SNOW!!!!!!!!!!
dlague
Active member
this should blow up soon!
Abubob
Well-known member
El Niño is a government scam to sell wind farms and solar arrays.
Holding my breath with regards to how it plays out here in Utah....it is a close call and could be either awesome or completely suck. Most are saying it should be very good. We're due.
dlague
Active member
I would like to see the Northeast get slamed!
FWIW 1997-1998 was the winter of the "Great Ice Storm".
VTKilarney
Well-known member
I hate to be a downer, but we've had a couple of epic years and everything must average out in the end.
Abubob
Well-known member
This article: http://ski.curbed.com/archives/2015...nce-were-getting-a-strong-el-nino.php?ref=yfp also names 72-73 and 82-83 as strong El Niño years. Those years to my memory also were bad snow years. In fact wasn't 72 the year of a devastating ice storm in southern New England? I hope I'm remembering wrong.
Not Sure
Well-known member
If there is Climate change? ...we'll see if the last few seasons are the new normal?
The warm water off the Gulf of Alaska caused the ridge to form bringing us all the cold air.
I'm curious to see if it persisting , looked for some charts but haven't any luck .
Didn't spend a lot of time on the search .
If it's still there it will be interesting to see how El Niño interacts.
Could be some wild weather.
St. Bear
New member
One way to look at it is that the past few years have been epic due to sustained cold, and not above average snowfall.
steamboat1
New member
Tin
Active member
VTKilarney
Well-known member
As much as I love Tim Minchin, there ought to be a rule against posting a 10 minute video to make a point that can be made in 10 seconds.
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Tin
Active member
slatham
Well-known member
Weatherbell just posted an analysis of the sea surface temps. Last year the 5 ocean regions they use all pointed to a cold central/eastern U.S. This year 4 of 5 do. The one that doesn't is El Niño, but to a good extent that's because right now the warmest anamoly in the El Niño region is toward the East, just off the coast of South America. But there are indications this is shifting west, to the 3.4 region (closer to the date line). When this area is the warmest of the El Niño regions it too points to a cold east. So this is not your typical El Niño. Being the optimist, I'm thinking of those cold snaps of last year meeting up the the surges of moisture from the Southwest in an active El Niño year. Can you say Blizzard!
