Strongest El Nino Ever

[Puck it]

Weatherbell just posted an analysis of the sea surface temps. Last year the 5 ocean regions they use all pointed to a cold central/eastern U.S. This year 4 of 5 do. The one that doesn't is El Niño, but to a good extent that's because right now the warmest anamoly in the El Niño region is toward the East, just off the coast of South America. But there are indications this is shifting west, to the 3.4 region (closer to the date line). When this area is the warmest of the El Niño regions it too points to a cold east. So this is not your typical El Niño. Being the optimist, I'm thinking of those cold snaps of last year meeting up the the surges of moisture from the Southwest in an active El Niño year. Can you say Blizzard!

Stop!!! I will be so disappointed.

 

[Not Sure]

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=86341

 

[ScottySkis]

Buy pass for my lots of snow in Roxbry. Thus year.

 

[thetrailboss]

My memory may not be accurate, but I recall 1997-1998 as not being particularly good for us in Vermont. Too warm.

 

[JDMRoma]

Hmm time to get my passport !


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[marcski]

Farmer's Almanac confirms...above normal snow and below normal cold for most of New England: (From the NYPost, the paper of record no less...it must be true!)*

http://nypost.com/2015/08/16/winter-will-be-snowy-and-horrible-says-farmers-almanac/

 

[Harvey]

Holding my breath with regards to how it plays out here in Utah....it is a close call and could be either awesome or completely suck. Most are saying it should be very good. We're due.

Wait... you guys had one bad year in the last how many?

 

[thetrailboss]

Wait... you guys had one bad year in the last how many?

We've actually had four consecutive seasons below average.

 

[cdskier]

We've actually had four consecutive seasons below average.

Sugarbush snowfall totals the past 4 years have also all been below average (technically speaking). :-D

 

[slatham]

Not sure I agree with the last 4 being below average but I will take your word for it. However, I would much rather have last year, where it didn't rain from mid January until like May, than a year with above average snow but the typical thaws and associated washouts.

 

[slatham]

So looking at Mt Mansfield data.
http://www.uvm.edu/skivt-l/?Page=mansel.php3

The peak snow DEPTH in the last 4 years exceeded the average. Now in a couple of those years it did appear that the depth was often below average even though it peaked above (poor starts, good Feb/March). However, a visual inspection of last year showed the depth to be above average throughout most of the season.

 

[VTKilarney]

This doesn't mean that snowfall was greater than average. It could be an artifact of fewer thaw cycles.


.

 

[thetrailboss]

Sugarbush snowfall totals the past 4 years have also all been below average (technically speaking). :-D

I doubt that with Sugarbush. It's certainly true with Alta/Snowbird with last year being 35% below normal. We average 500"--nowhere near that since 2011.


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[Puck it]

I doubt that with Sugarbush. It's certainly true with Alta/Snowbird with last year being 35% below normal. We average 500"--nowhere near that since 2011.


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Snowfall last year at most of the mountain resorts was at or below average.

 

[cdskier]

Not sure I agree with the last 4 being below average but I will take your word for it. However, I would much rather have last year, where it didn't rain from mid January until like May, than a year with above average snow but the typical thaws and associated washouts.

Oops, it seems Sugarbush revised their average snowfall slightly downward since I originally started tracking snowfall totals vs averages about 10 years ago. I originally had 282" as their average. Now they list 269" as average on their official stats (interesting that in 10 years they've dropped their average snowfall over a foot). So now 3 of the last 4 years were below average (3 years ago the snowfall total was in the 270s). 4 years ago it was well under 200 (horrible year - I remember skiing Mt Ellen in late March with just a narrow hand shoveled path at the top of the summit chair). 2 years ago it was in the 230s and last year in the 240s.

So technically speaking, it was below average in terms of snowfall itself. That said, snowfall totals alone don't tell the whole story obviously. Thaws and r**n certainly play a major role in the overall conditions as you pointed out. I too would rather have sustained cold and somewhat below average snowfall.

 

[cdskier]

I doubt that with Sugarbush. It's certainly true with Alta/Snowbird with last year being 35% below normal. We average 500"--nowhere near that since 2011.

So even being 35% below normal means you still had over 300" of snow which is still more than we saw in the East at most resorts. No sympathy here!

 

[thetrailboss]

So even being 35% below normal means you still had over 300" of snow which is still more than we saw in the East at most resorts. No sympathy here!

Well, 300" is not enough to cover up this:

And yeah I'm whining...the first three seasons I was OK, but now I want the real Utah winter!

 

[deadheadskier]

Yeah 300+" and Snowbird skiing well into May doesn't get much sympathy from me. :lol:

Only Jay in the east sees that kind of season with any regularity. (((((Thetrailboss))))).

 

[bigbog]

Snowfall last year at most of the mountain resorts was at or below average.

Agree..
The heavier snowfall took place away from the higher terrain....in pockets towards, not at, but towards the coast..east and northeast of all the ME mountains...however I think everyone did alright.
Spaces outside of towns in eastern north-central got a lot, but we are stuck with big hills/small mountains.. Throughout February I ended up choosing between the Loaf, with 80mi+ 1-way, daily lift prices and a bit over a foot...or small local mountains/large hills, free...with 24"+ of champagne for most of the month. Think quite a few areas throughout the NE had this. Odd that there was no climb of temperatures like the last three decades following each storm and no Spring thaw(up here in higher lattitude but lower elevation)....systems remained West --> East thru Feb.

 

[Puck it]

Agree..
The heavier snowfall took place away from the higher terrain....in pockets towards, not at, but towards the coast..east and northeast of all the NE mountains...however I think everyone did alright.

It was the cold that was the big help. No rain or thaw cycles made it a stellar year. Just not the powder days that everyone thinks.