The ALTERRA SUCKS Thread

[Tin Woodsman]

Here's what you're missing: new investors want more than a sleepy de-risked season pass printing machine. They want it to grow, and a business that isn't taking share isn't a good growth story. They need to be sold on growing a combination of skiers, rev/skier and ancillary revs from real estate, etc. I suspect further acquisitions was likely part of the story, too (see Basin, A for example).

So your thesis is that locals are the main driver of growth, not the enthusiasts (like here) or affluent Northeasterners (you'd think the ski market were a pure duopoly if you listened to the network compared of 30 something's with disposable income). I certainly agree that's been a force in UT and the front range, but it certainly feels like there's been a huge uptick in destination travel to be laid at the feet of EPKON in the last decade. Day trippers aren't a sexy growth story for the stock/CV either. It's part of the mosaic, but the massive shock to the way people in the wealth/population centers back east are the big tickets.

Good for you - hope you've been well.Good luck and have fun with the storm!

As mentioned, there's massive anecdotal evidence that more than a wave of UT transplants are to blame (Jackson Hole and Aspen as other examples). Prevailing sentiment is that EPKON is to blame. This was a nod to your well executed sleight of hand to demand burden of proof from your interlocutor when you're the one bucking conventional wisdom (while lappearing to knowing full well the data you ask for isn't really available).

I think we are talking past each other here - you have mischaracterized my thesis.

I'm pushing back solely on the confident declarations (from others) that current crowding is all/mostly about EPKON As already mentioned, EPKON is surely a major factor here. Possibly even the biggest. Not sure anyone could know this empirically outside in - the data isn't available.

But a lot of this noise is coming from recent transplants to the very same hot spots people are complaining about most. How convenient for them to blame billion dollar corporations for the very same conditions they themselves are contributing to. You don't get to blame "the corporations" while contributing to the very same crowding issues you deride. Don't like it? Move anew to somewhere else, just like you did when you bailed on the East Coast.

 

[Tin Woodsman]

When the Tech Bros at Summit high-fived each other and bought PowMow about 12 years ago, I foresaw this bullshit coming. The fact that folks got 12 years of not much changes at the place is a hell of a lot longer than I expected. What I did not foresee was that Summit was shown the door and they aren't the ones being complete asshats.

Simply stated, what Summit and now Hastings is trying to do runs against what locals want. I get that they are trying to put things in the black, but the price increases and other BS they are rolling out right now is making those locals pissed off. And implementing dynamic pricing for a place like PowMow is downright hilarious. The only problem is that the prices will not drop at all despite what will now be lower demand. Amazing how dynamic pricing never favors the consumer!

This is obviously non-Alterra, but I'll weigh in. I certainly didn't have a problem with taking some of the newer, low-angle terrain private. Not a loss to anyone who would frequent this message board tbh. Ultimately, the uncrowded PowMow model is exactly why they've gone through a succession of owners - it's never been a viable business.

But jeez man - do these people not have a clue about how to do PR? Why would you then also announce a long list of other changes that aren't friendly to your existing customers without waiting a season or two to build up some equity in the bank with them? The increases for seniors/military seem particularly ill-conceived - not like those are big money spinners, but the PR damage will sure hurt. And then eliminating the daily limits mid-season when the existence of same was likely a factor in driving people to buy their 23-24 passes to begin with.

Just a horrific self-own.

 

[kingslug]

Billionairs...well...they forgot what the rest of the human population is like...

 

[thetrailboss]

We’ll see how this goes down next season. I think parking will run out and folks will still be pissed.

Crystal Mountain reverts to unlimited access on Ikon Pass

Crystal will offer unlimited access for Ikon Pass holders for the 2024-25 season. There won't be a Crystal-only season pass next year.

www.seattletimes.com

 

[EPB]

I think we are talking past each other here - you have mischaracterized my thesis.

I'm pushing back solely on the confident declarations (from others) that current crowding is all/mostly about EPKON As already mentioned, EPKON is surely a major factor here. Possibly even the biggest. Not sure anyone could know this empirically outside in - the data isn't available.

But a lot of this noise is coming from recent transplants to the very same hot spots people are complaining about most. How convenient for them to blame billion dollar corporations for the very same conditions they themselves are contributing to. You don't get to blame "the corporations" while contributing to the very same crowding issues you deride. Don't like it? Move anew to somewhere else, just like you did when you bailed on the East Coast.

I think we're largely on the same page. Our only potential point of misalignment is that I read the fact KSL just convinced the PE market to give them another 5ish years with Alterra as clear empirical evidence that the model is doing more than just riding the wave of better east coast transplants.

 

[Tin Woodsman]

I think we're largely on the same page. Our only potential point of misalignment is that I read the fact KSL just convinced the PE market to give them another 5ish years with Alterra as clear empirical evidence that the model is doing more than just riding the wave of better east coast transplants.

I think it was the combination of risk mitigation and obviously top line growth that convinced the investors to apply a higher multiple (on a bigger base). Don't think I was trying to claim (with respect to valuation specifically) that the growth was all attributable to one source or another.

 

[EPB]

I think it was the combination of risk mitigation and obviously top line growth that convinced the investors to apply a higher multiple (on a bigger base). Don't think I was trying to claim (with respect to valuation specifically) that the growth was all attributable to one source or another.

I'm mostly with you. It's certainly not an either/or.

More inside baseball than anything, but the new investors in these vehicles underwrite to 2-3x their money over ~5 years. They needed to be convinced the mouse trap is more than just a side car to demographic trends. I can all but guarantee a handful or two of twenty somethings got on every state's ski association page to confirm that.

If you think it's reasonable to be upset over crowding (and we're on the same page on that question ) then it would more than reasonable to be upset with the duopoly.

Another related point I haven't seen raised, though I may have missed it, is that both the operators and guests are "right" regarding the increases in traffic. I've seen operators say "hey volumes are only modestly higher than before" while guests decry monumentally worse crowds. After years of procrastinating, I finally read Antifragile by Nassim Taleb. He illustrates how this happens. The example he uses is a highway between Manhattan and JFK if memory serves. The road can handle 100x cars per unit of time. When the road is at 97x, traffic is voluminous, but cars can drive at highway speed. When the road gets to 102x, the exits back up and the highway becomes a parking lot. It's only a ~5% increase in traffic, but it makes all the difference.

I get the sense that at least one of the following: access roads, parking lots, out of base lifts and lodges at peak times were just below peak capacity 5-6 years ago and now the operators have bottlenecks to relieve all over the place.

 

[kingslug]

Well..all I know at the moment its very crowded here. Just spent the day at deer valley and its a zoo. New construction everywhere. Heber city has new construction all over the place to handle the DV expansion.
Traffic is huge.
But hey..the skiing is great...so I'm in.

 

[EPB]

Well..all I know at the moment its very crowded here. Just spent the day at deer valley and its a zoo. New construction everywhere. Heber city has new construction all over the place to handle the DV expansion.
Traffic is huge.
But hey..the skiing is great...so I'm in.

Id caveat and say "likely" right haha

 

[thetrailboss]

Well..all I know at the moment its very crowded here. Just spent the day at deer valley and its a zoo. New construction everywhere. Heber city has new construction all over the place to handle the DV expansion.
Traffic is huge.
But hey..the skiing is great...so I'm in.

Deer Valley was crowded? If so, Edgar Stern is rolling in his grave.

 

[thetrailboss]

I'm mostly with you. It's certainly not an either/or.

More inside baseball than anything, but the new investors in these vehicles underwrite to 2-3x their money over ~5 years. They needed to be convinced the mouse trap is more than just a side car to demographic trends. I can all but guarantee a handful or two of twenty somethings got on every state's ski association page to confirm that.

If you think it's reasonable to be upset over crowding (and we're on the same page on that question ) then it would more than reasonable to be upset with the duopoly.

Another related point I haven't seen raised, though I may have missed it, is that both the operators and guests are "right" regarding the increases in traffic. I've seen operators say "hey volumes are only modestly higher than before" while guests decry monumentally worse crowds. After years of procrastinating, I finally read Antifragile by Nassim Taleb. He illustrates how this happens. The example he uses is a highway between Manhattan and JFK if memory serves. The road can handle 100x cars per unit of time. When the road is at 97x, traffic is voluminous, but cars can drive at highway speed. When the road gets to 102x, the exits back up and the highway becomes a parking lot. It's only a ~5% increase in traffic, but it makes all the difference.

I get the sense that at least one of the following: access roads, parking lots, out of base lifts and lodges at peak times were just below peak capacity 5-6 years ago and now the operators have bottlenecks to relieve all over the place.

Exactly. When the whole IKON thing started and people began to complain, Alterra trotted out taking points including that the crowding wasn’t them because IKON only added “20% more skiers and riders.” The problem was that it added them at peak times when things were already busy.

 

[kingslug]

Super crowded...way more than park city/ canyons. Completely different place and vibe.
Will be interesting to see once it doubles in size..

 

[BenedictGomez]

New construction everywhere. Heber city has new construction all over the place to handle the DV expansion.

The Deer Valley expansion wont be the major problem for Heber City, it'll probably be a lot of rich people who are never even there. The disaster waiting to happen is the Jordanelle Ridge / Coyote Ridge project. How on earth that ever got approved is anyone's guess, but I presume local officials were heavily taken care of.

 

[kingslug]

Haven't heard about this...
I'll check it out.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Haven't heard about this...
I'll check it out.

Absolutely breathtaking views from up there.

 

[kingslug]

Got some good info about areas last night.
Always good to get local info.
Deer valley was a zoo yesterday...had to hide in the trees...

 

[4aprice]

Super crowded...way more than park city/ canyons. Completely different place and vibe.
Will be interesting to see once it doubles in size..

Maybe the expansion will spread things out. I have never liked how multi major lifts at DV terminate in the same area at the top of the 2 main peaks. It makes for a huge cluster you know what. Just too much going on up there.

 

[abc]

Deer valley was a zoo yesterday...had to hide in the trees...

What people say about the “luxury” of DV had always escaped me. Open cattle carts to shuttle skiers from spread out parking lot. What if they take your skis if you drive up?

The groomers were slick, almost east coast slick.

Trees were the only reason I ski there (Back in the days of “free” afternoon ski on the day of landing at the SLC airport).

Since Alterra bought it, the locker rooms resembles the bathroom at Port Authority!

But in conclusion, the trees are worth it. Worth all the slick groomers and jammed packed locker room.

 

[machski]

What people say about the “luxury” of DV had always escaped me. Open cattle carts to shuttle skiers from spread out parking lot. What if they take your skis if you drive up?

The groomers were slick, almost east coast slick.

Trees were the only reason I ski there (Back in the days of “free” afternoon ski on the day of landing at the SLC airport).

Since Alterra bought it, the locker rooms resembles the bathroom at Port Authority!

But in conclusion, the trees are worth it. Worth all the slick groomers and jammed packed locker room.

Ehh, I'm over PC and DV. Every time my wife I and have gone out there the low elevation bases came into play (as in R@!n at the base area levels). DV trees are nice, but have never seen ths great snow there really except up high (above 8000'). The overall terrain both offer is not really what I'm looking for when traveling out west. YMMV

 

[machski]

We’ll see how this goes down next season. I think parking will run out and folks will still be pissed.

Crystal Mountain reverts to unlimited access on Ikon Pass

Crystal will offer unlimited access for Ikon Pass holders for the 2024-25 season. There won't be a Crystal-only season pass next year.

www.seattletimes.com

Perhaps, but not like the full IKON is the cheap pass it was when Crystal first became Alterra owned. And back then, base was unlimited too. You have to make a parking reservation peak days and Fri-Sun. Folks actually traveling a distance will want to do the paid reservation thing further than 5 days out. Bet this will smooth things out. Hell, if I was going, I'd check the parking reservation thing before I left my crib. If I can make one, should be good to go, No?