The Market's impact on skiing

[Moe Ghoul]

My most local ski shop apparently slipped out of business a couple weeks ago. And I have like $100 credit there from their ski swap last year. Guess they got that cash and I am stupid for not using it sooner.

Might be a good idea to use up gift card, gift certificates and such for smaller independent retailers and restaurants. The bar/restaurant I owned just announced they no longer accept AMEX, DISCOVER and Gift certificates have to be used by the end of the month. My ex-partner did a fine job running the place into the ground and ended up selling for a loss. Asshole deserves everything he gets. His house is up for sale, too. Genius.

 

[hardline]

Might be a good idea to use up gift card, gift certificates and such for smaller independent retailers and restaurants. The bar/restaurant I owned just announced they no longer accept AMEX, DISCOVER and Gift certificates have to be used by the end of the month. My ex-partner did a fine job running the place into the ground and ended up selling for a loss. Asshole deserves everything he gets. His house is up for sale, too. Genius.

ill be the first to say amex vendor fee suck ass everyone complains about them. wow you seem pretty hostile towards the ex partner. did you leave or where you bought out?

 

[Moe Ghoul]

ill be the first to say amex vendor fee suck ass everyone complains about them. wow you seem pretty hostile towards the ex partner. did you leave or where you bought out?

A lot of history. We actually started working together in the 80's in the very bar/restaurant we bought in '98. Bottom line, he got greedy and dishonest, and it ended in litigation where I cleaned his clock and he ended up with 3 mortgages and a loan from a bookie to buy out my share knowing that his ego would let him outbid me for a ridunkulous amount of $$$. Balloon mortgages and a bookie, lol. Part of the reason I haven't had to work since 2001. It ain't hostility, it's sweet justice. Fuck with my stash, and I'll crush ya. Adversaries have always made the mistake of underestimating me whether in court or in biz. Nobody reads Sun Tzu anymore. I went back for the first time in 7 years with my dad when we got back from NYC, the place is a shithole now.

 

[hardline]

A lot of history. We actually started working together in the 80's in the very bar/restaurant we bought in '98. Bottom line, he got greedy and dishonest, and it ended in litigation where I cleaned his clock and he ended up with 3 mortgages and a loan from a bookie to buy out my share knowing that his ego would let him outbid me for a ridunkulous amount of $$$. Balloon mortgages and a bookie, lol. Part of the reason I haven't had to work since 2001. It ain't hostility, it's sweet justice. Fuck with my stash, and I'll crush ya. Adversaries have always made the mistake of underestimating me whether in court or in biz. Nobody reads Sun Tzu anymore. I went back for the first time in 7 years with my dad when we got back from NYC, the place is a shithole now.

crazy didn't realize people where still dumb enought to use bookies. there are enough dumb people with money to bring in as silient partners. that must have been a stupid dumb buyout amount for you to not to have worked since 01.

 

[Moe Ghoul]

crazy didn't realize people where still dumb enought to use bookies. there are enough dumb people with money to bring in as silient partners. that must have been a stupid dumb buyout amount for you to not to have worked since 01.

It helped. Einstein said the difference between genius and stupidity is genius has limits.
I think the difference between genius and stupidity is the end result. Silent partners? Uh, he didn't have a track record to garner much confidence from investors. When I got my settlement checks, I told him he'd be outta business in 5 years. I missed it by 1.

 

[RISkier]

I'd speculate the impact on places that rely mostly on day trippers will be relatively minimal, especially if gas prices stay down. Impacts on destination resorts could be much more substantial, IMO. And places that have a big chunk of their capital in real estate could really be impacted long term. Although the excesses resulting from deregulation (real estate just looked like a market that needed a little pin prick to blow up) I believe the huge drop in the stock market is more a function of panic selling and fear rather than truly bad fundamentals. IMO, the basic fundamentals of the economy are no where near as bad as they were in 1929. There's quite a few things different and during the depression there was lots of deflation. My bills keep getting higher, don't know about yours. Fear and panic can drive the fundamentals down. So my take is we're seeing some big market correction, and lots of folks will feel considerable pain till things sort themselves out, but I don't think we're sliding into a depression. I also wonder (and here I'm just completely engaging in w a speculation) if a little recession once in a while isn't a good thing. We've had so many year of pretty much uninterrupted economic growth that we have long way to fall. Seemed like there always used to be relatively small economic cycles of growth, then small recessions, growth, etc. The economic downturns tended to be relatively small and short lived. Now we've had so many years of growth that there may be a ways to fall to find stasis.

 

[Moe Ghoul]

The stock market is a discounting mechanism looking 6+ months into the future. Some of this selling is "panic", but the majority of it is forced liquidation due to excessive leverage, which is what put a short term bounce in the USD, and which sustained the bubble economy after the tech crash, which Greenspan conflated with artificially low interest rates, which poured zillions into real estate, much of the economy's "growth" revolving around that. Now that the RE bubble has imploded, profits are heading south, tax receipts are gonna drop, and foreigners are already cutting back how much they "lend" us to pay the country's bills. That means, as we are now witnessing, we have to self-finance, print money, which is going to push long rates higher, and the spiral feeds on itself. Any effort to "smooth out" a recession is only going to compound the problem. The brain trust in DC is already talking up a McStimulus package, Part Deux, but now they want to funnel it to cash strapped states. Does anyone wonder where all this money comes from? You know, all that money that we didn't have for schools, education, social programs, etc. Sure is amazing how they can conjure a few trillion when the banks go bust. That's your kids money they're flushing down the toilet and a debt they can never possible repay.

 

[riverc0il]

Moe hits on one of my primary fears these past few years regarding national debt... what happens when other country's decide that we are no longer good for the money. You can't just keep borrowing indefinitely and hope that the economy never tanks and measures need never be taken that might shake foreign creditors.

The entire thing is just getting started. I wouldn't believe many ski areas will go under after this season, but it will take several good snow years in a row to ensure at least a few areas don't slip off the active list in the next half dozen years.

 

[Moe Ghoul]

Moe hits on one of my primary fears these past few years regarding national debt... what happens when other country's decide that we are no longer good for the money. You can't just keep borrowing indefinitely and hope that the economy never tanks and measures need never be taken that might shake foreign creditors.

The entire thing is just getting started. I wouldn't believe many ski areas will go under after this season, but it will take several good snow years in a row to ensure at least a few areas don't slip off the active list in the next half dozen years.

The reality is that these numbers are starting to move geometrically, not arithmetically. The spin in the financial media is surreal and quite clueless. On rare occasion they'll bring in some scary doom n gloomer for entertainment value, but they were ridiculed by the Kudlows, Cavutos and other cheerleaders until recently. Now, they're trying to sound smart and accusatory. Where's Art Laffer? ROFLMAO!!!!!!! Bring on another helping of tax cuts, heck, if tax cuts are such a winner, abolish all taxes. Carry it to a logical conclusion.

 

[Dr Skimeister]

I think that the recent stock market decline has resulted in significant loss of consumer confidence. Most of us have as much disposable income as we did a few months ago, but the loss in the value of our portfolios gives us reason be more sure before we open our wallets right now.

If stock market decline or even stagnation continues, and the resultant loss of consumer confidence continues, we may wind up seeing some nice skiing deals as the season goes on. Ski areas, be they destination resorts or even day-tripper places will do what they have to to get hineys on the lifts.

 

[deadheadskier]

If I were running a resort right now, I'd be putting down right criminally low sport introduction packages together. I'd also consider extending the 'child' lift ticket rates up to the age of 18. My focus would be trying to get as many new skiers on the hill as possible in hopes that a certain percentage catches the bug and will still come back despite poor economic conditions in the coming years.

As I mentioned earlier, I think there will be a significant loss in 'casual' skiers in the coming years. Building up the farm system of potential addicts would be the goal...

 

[hardline]

If I were running a resort right now, I'd be putting down right criminally low sport introduction packages together. I'd also consider extending the 'child' lift ticket rates up to the age of 18. My focus would be trying to get as many new skiers on the hill as possible in hopes that a certain percentage catches the bug and will still come back despite poor economic conditions in the coming years.

As I mentioned earlier, I think there will be a significant loss in 'casual' skiers in the coming years. Building up the farm system of potential addicts would be the goal...

i think a great example of this is mt snow with their parks its brining in the tweens who will later be comming back. its long term but important i think.

 

[eastcoastpowderhound]

financial crisis or not, sunday river was MOBBED this weekend for their harvest fest and wife carrying contest...parking in lots only used on xmas, MLK and Prez week.

 

[deadheadskier]

financial crisis or not, sunday river was MOBBED this weekend for their harvest fest and wife carrying contest...parking in lots only used on xmas, MLK and Prez week.

Did you check out Max Creek?

 

[askstowell]

I just hope that wife doesn't lose job (makes more) because if that happens, skiing is out the window and we're in survival mode to pay mortgage, one car payment, pay utilities, and buy food. Gone would be cable, internet, cell phones, newspapers, and anything else that some might not consider an extra but we do as we're the typical pay check to pay check family.

 

[eastcoastpowderhound]

Did you check out Max Creek?

no, only there for a few hrs on sat then I had to head further north. didn't get to partake in any of the festivities.

 

[deadheadskier]

I just hope that wife doesn't lose job (makes more) because if that happens, skiing is out the window and we're in survival mode to pay mortgage, one car payment, pay utilities, and buy food. Gone would be cable, internet, cell phones, newspapers, and anything else that some might not consider an extra but we do as we're the typical pay check to pay check family.

There's a very 'real' perspective on the subject. For the most part this thread has been 90% macro / big picture thinking, but individual vulnerability has been left out. Guess the initial question was more 'macro' loaded to begin with, but....you bring up an very real reality for a number of people.

Hate to think about loss of income in times like this. It's a scary thought and a real question. One that I would ask as a separate thread, but.....I'm reluctant to bring it up. I feel I should play the Ostrich a tad more on here than I do. I don't know how healthy it is that I participate to the extent I do in the negative threads regarding the economy.

I'm the 'bread winner' in my relationship. With no income changes....

I will hope to ski 30 days, but probably ski 20-25

If my girl lost her job, I'd hope to ski 20 and probably ski 10-15

If I lost my job, I'd hope to ski 10, but would probably ski 5

If we both lost our jobs, I would ski zero and be in real trouble without major family assistance after six months or so

 

[Sky]

If stock market decline or even stagnation continues, and the resultant loss of consumer confidence continues, we may wind up seeing some nice skiing deals as the season goes on. Ski areas, be they destination resorts or even day-tripper places will do what they have to to get hineys on the lifts.

Not that Moe Ghoul isn't correct....or post a more cerebral response than I originaly was expecting....but Skimeister's response is more near-term and on-topic.

I have no idea where this will end. And I don't know who to believe. But I'm not filled with confidence, and if I were not employed and "vested" as I currently am...I'd be a tad nervous. Although if I were in in adifferent scenario (re: work/vested)...maybe I'd be more in tune with WTF is about to happen.

So...How about this weahter eh?

*SMIRK*

 

[Sky]

Deadhead's points are in keeping with my original post...micro vs macro (micro's affect on macro, macro's reaction to micro's reality (real or percieved)).

I won't lose my job. Wife won't lose hers immediately...and could probably retain employment.

There's a balance to be taken by the family as it impacts the economy. Reduced spending slows the economy....but ensures (near term) that $ is on hand. Not spending, will impact the long term, the market, the service industry, the domino affect.

Lack of confidence at the micro level keeps the checkbooks/credit cards etc, in the pocket/pocketbook.

I'm thinking that the hotel industry (and the ski areas/ski biz) will flex a bit to ensure folks come to the mountains. Once they are there...they will eat/sleep.

I'd agree with (sorry, can't remember the poster's name) and drop cable, cell phones, anything that didn't support life's necessities. And that could include skiing for me (since it's low priority for the rest of the fam.

I could "reel it all in" and hunker down. Let's be clear...cable first! Skiing last.

 

[FRITOLAYGUY]

I just wonder if ski areas themselves will have things affected by the economy, less lifties and madness at the bottom of busy lift lines because 1 person is doing the work of 2 , things like that.