loafer89
New member
NOAA will be issuing a winter storm watch for Southern New England at 4pm.
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The Official 3/16 - 3/17 Storm Discussion Thread
- Thread starter kingslug
- Start date
loafer89
New member
NOAA just issued this statement:
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA349 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007...A DEVELOPING NOREASTER WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CTZ002-003-MAZ002>004-008>012-026-NHZ011-015-151000-/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0004.070316T0600Z-070316T2200Z/HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...VERNON...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE349 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN ANDCENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEETACCUMULATION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHESTCONFIDENCE NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTOTHE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN MAY TEMPORARILY COME TO AN END LATETHURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO PART OF THE NIGHT. THE RAIN MAY MIX WITHSLEET BEFORE THIS FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION EXITS THE REGION.THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING POWERFUL NOREASTER THAT ISEXPECTED TO TRACK UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.SNOW WILL DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THEMORNING RUSH HOUR LOOKS TO BE MESSY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTHOF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. THE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTILJUST AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERNNEW HAMPSHIRE. REGARDLESS...SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES FRIDAYMORNING WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH SLEET SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTSTURNPIKE.AT THIS TIME...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY ALLOW THE SNOWTO CHANGE TO SLEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. THIS COULD HAPPENEARLIER SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW EXISTS BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO SLEET ANDPOSSIBLY EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTSTURNPIKE...WHERE A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE THECHANGE OVER TO SLEET.A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATINGSNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD OR 8 OR MORE INCHESIN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURSSHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY TRAVELPLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.$$
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA349 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007...A DEVELOPING NOREASTER WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CTZ002-003-MAZ002>004-008>012-026-NHZ011-015-151000-/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0004.070316T0600Z-070316T2200Z/HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...VERNON...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE349 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN ANDCENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEETACCUMULATION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHESTCONFIDENCE NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES INTOTHE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN MAY TEMPORARILY COME TO AN END LATETHURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO PART OF THE NIGHT. THE RAIN MAY MIX WITHSLEET BEFORE THIS FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION EXITS THE REGION.THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING POWERFUL NOREASTER THAT ISEXPECTED TO TRACK UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.SNOW WILL DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THEMORNING RUSH HOUR LOOKS TO BE MESSY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTHOF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. THE PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFF UNTILJUST AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERNNEW HAMPSHIRE. REGARDLESS...SNOW MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES FRIDAYMORNING WHICH COULD BE MIXED WITH SLEET SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTSTURNPIKE.AT THIS TIME...THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY ALLOW THE SNOWTO CHANGE TO SLEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. THIS COULD HAPPENEARLIER SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW EXISTS BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO SLEET ANDPOSSIBLY EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTSTURNPIKE...WHERE A LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BEFORE THECHANGE OVER TO SLEET.A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATINGSNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD OR 8 OR MORE INCHESIN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURSSHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFY TRAVELPLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.$$
Zand
Well-known member
I love it.
WINTER STORM WATCH
Currently: 71F, partly cloudy.
Looking like 4-8" north of the Mass Pike and outside 495, then 8" plus for northern VT.
WINTER STORM WATCH
Currently: 71F, partly cloudy.
Looking like 4-8" north of the Mass Pike and outside 495, then 8" plus for northern VT.
loafer89
New member
It's 64F here at home and we made it up to 66F, but it seemed alot warmer in Bloomfield earlier today.
Nearly all of our snow is gone, except for north facing areas that still have alot of snowcover.
Nearly all of our snow is gone, except for north facing areas that still have alot of snowcover.
kingslug
Well-known member
Should be there by 5 or 6 pm. Figure on a 7 hour drive, 6 1/2 would be nice though.
PM sent.
from_the_NEK
Active member
This thing better drop more than 1 inch in northern VT. We have lost quite a lot of snow here in the valleys. Mtns are still looking pretty good but Burke closed down several trails today 
This thing better drop more than 1 inch in northern VT. We have lost quite a lot of snow here in the valleys. Mtns are still looking pretty good but Burke closed down several trails today
Wow, they lost enough to close trails? DoH!
Ok, won't complain about crunchies in Southern NH anymore.
Zand
Well-known member
3/16-3/17 Storm Discussion Thread
Storm is imminent now with Winter Storm Watches starting to fly. It's 70 degrees now, but tomorrow the cold front will come through with heavy rain and the cold air will follow. The Nor'Easter will track up the aforementioned cold front which should stall off the coast. There will almost be no transition time between the wet precip from the front and the wintry precip from the Nor'Easter in SNE. The storm will arrive in SNE around daybreak Friday with areas north of the Mass Pike and west of I-495 receiving all snow, areas south of that receiving a mix, and the southern and southeastern coasts getting mainly rain. The storm will continue through Friday night and into Saturday with areas in a BDL/PVD/BOS line getting around 3-6", areas northwest of that line getting around 6-12", and the mountains of western MA, VT, and NH possibly besting a foot. Some southern areas maybe change back to rain early Saturday and central areas may see a change to sleet and freezing rain, but most areas north of Route 2 should stay all snow. Behind the storm, winds wil be gusty and temps very cold for March, with most places seeing temps stay in the mid 20s Saturday and Sunday, possibly teens in the north country.
Another possible event is a clipper for Monday night... still unsure about temps when this storm hits, but will monitor it once this Nor'Easter passes.
Storm is imminent now with Winter Storm Watches starting to fly. It's 70 degrees now, but tomorrow the cold front will come through with heavy rain and the cold air will follow. The Nor'Easter will track up the aforementioned cold front which should stall off the coast. There will almost be no transition time between the wet precip from the front and the wintry precip from the Nor'Easter in SNE. The storm will arrive in SNE around daybreak Friday with areas north of the Mass Pike and west of I-495 receiving all snow, areas south of that receiving a mix, and the southern and southeastern coasts getting mainly rain. The storm will continue through Friday night and into Saturday with areas in a BDL/PVD/BOS line getting around 3-6", areas northwest of that line getting around 6-12", and the mountains of western MA, VT, and NH possibly besting a foot. Some southern areas maybe change back to rain early Saturday and central areas may see a change to sleet and freezing rain, but most areas north of Route 2 should stay all snow. Behind the storm, winds wil be gusty and temps very cold for March, with most places seeing temps stay in the mid 20s Saturday and Sunday, possibly teens in the north country.
Another possible event is a clipper for Monday night... still unsure about temps when this storm hits, but will monitor it once this Nor'Easter passes.
millerm277
Active member
This , is currently predicting about 15 inches on Friday/Friday Night.
Skier75
New member
This weather has certainly been crazy! 74 degrees in Dover, NH today.
loafer89
New member
My son has the day off from school on friday because of teacher development day, so the plan right now is to head up to Mount Snow early friday, do some skiing and then spend the night there. Saturday and sunday are season passholder appreciation days on the mountain and the lifts open at 7:30am for passholders giving this powder piggy plenty of opportunities to trash some fresh powder.:smile:
Killington has lost a good amount of snow in the last few days. Unless they get a good amount of snow from this storm I think the trail count will go down quickly.
What a change from last weekend...Gotta love New England
What a change from last weekend...Gotta love New England
Justin10
New member
Wow, the day I head out west the "potential" storm comes.....figures....
Have a great time guys!
Have a great time guys!
millerm277
Active member
Potential for 15 inches at K-peak according to this....I'm hoping, since I'll be there then.
http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Killington.0to3top.shtml
http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Killington.0to3top.shtml
SnowRider
New member
How may Bromley make out on this one? Ill be there Saturday.
i agree. i was at sunday river today and bare patches were showing up in places i would not have guessed. pray for snow cause when it gets cold we'll need it.
JD
New member
Ski test at J this weekend=me=stoke=high=me=high.
powderfreak
New member
- Joined
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Forecast: Significant Winter Storm for Interior Northeast
Flight gets into Albany at 1045pm tomorrow night so an update will be late...at least midnight and I think we could see some changes tomorrow in the models. I've tried to account for those but this forecast could get outdated quickly. Sorry for the length.
___________________________________________________________
Track: A low pressure system will develop in northern Georgia on Friday morning and track up the coast throughout the day and on Friday night before reaching Cape Cod during the early morning hours on Saturday. The exact track (right now 50 miles either side of Cape Cod) will decide final snowfall amounts (how far inland the juice ends up).
Precipitation Type: All snow in far NW MA, NY State from Poughkeepsie northward, all of NH except coastal sections, all of Vermont, all of ME away from the coastal areas. I-95 region will start as mainly snow but will change to sleet and rain between BOS, PVD, and NYC. The amount of rain will depend on the final track of the surface low. Some significant sleet on top of the snow could occur in the far southern Hudson River Valley, NYC, western L.I., all of CT, and a good chunk of interior MA.
Initial Snowfall Forecast from noon Friday to 4pm Saturday: This is preliminary and an update will not come till late tomorrow night (flight gets into Albany at 10:45pm). I'll do this by general regions where I expect snowfall to exceed 6”...due to time, if your area is not on here I’m not expecting 6” or more. This forecast is listed for points SW (starting with Catskills) to NE (Maine) of the interior.
Catskills: 6-12” with all snow. Some spots may exceed 12” especially along the eastern slopes where orographic enhancement from easterly winds will occur.
Hudson River Valley including Poughkeepsie and Albany: 6-12” with POU seeing the best chance at 12”. My fear here is that easterly winds cause some downsloping off the Berkshires and could reduce snowfall amounts up towards Albany. I am leaning towards 6-9” for the immediate Albany area.
Berkshires: Heavy snowfall here with 10-15”.
Interior MA, NW of I-90/I-495 especially the RT 2 corridor: 5-9” with some accumulation of sleet on top.
Southern VT (South of Killington): Heavy snowfall with 10-15” of accumulation.
Central and Northern VT (Killington and points north): Significant snow with 7-15”. I’m leaving a larger range here due to less confidence in the NW extent of very heavy snowfall but feel, at the worst, this area is still looking at 7-9”.
White Mountains: Heavy snowfall with 10-15”
Sunday River and Sugarloaf in Maine: Heavy snow, 10-15” of snowfall.
DISCUSSION: The latest guidance still shows some minor but large differences for those along the western edge, particularly for an area including Binghamton, Albany, Glens Falls, Rutland, and Burlington. The 00z NAM has below a half inch of liquid in the Albany-Burlington corridor (more like .3") while the GFS has more than twice that at .75" or greater in that area. Bullseye looks to be in the Berkshires, southern VT, interior MA (say NW of an I-90/I-495 zone), most of NH, and ME. Killington northward is a little up in the air but I'm confident these areas are looking at a solid 6"+ along the Green Mtn spine and eastward. I'm not forecasting this but for those who like to dream, I saw the NWS AWIPS snowfall graphic from the 0z GFS and its got a 15"+ zone running from the Berkshires northward up the Green Mtn Spine then northwest across the northern half of NH and into ME including Sunday River and Sugarloaf. Remember, the NAM is about half that.
This storm will be fueled by strong warm air advection and will have a decent surge of Gulf and Atlantic moisture to work with. One interesting aspect is the lack of a strong westward pitch of moisture back into central NY like one would expect with this sort of track. The dynamics with this are not overly impressive (one cause for concern) in their set-up especially at 250mb and at 500mb I'd like to see a cut-off low for a widespread chance at 12" or greater. Also, the two pieces of energy that will form this storm are making me nervous in that this is not a slam dunk by any means. One jet streak will round the base of the trough and start to come up the coast before its hit from behind with more energy dropping out of Manitoba. This second infusion of energy is going to trigger the cyclogensis along the eastern seaboard. Knowing that the second hit of E (energy) is still in a data sparse region of northern Canada, there could be some big surprises during the day tomorrow.
The positives include favorable dendrite snow growth and higher than 10:1 ratios in an area bounded by Albany, Burlington, Rangley (ME), back to Lebanon (NH). This area will be well inside the cold sector and will not see the warming aloft that areas further SE will…all WAA events this winter have produced sleet and mixed precip farther north than progged so I’m going to give myself a buffer zone northwest of the current progs. As I've been writing this, more data has come in and the global models support the GFS, so will lean towards that for now though I hate discounting the NAM.
Flight gets into Albany at 1045pm tomorrow night so an update will be late...at least midnight and I think we could see some changes tomorrow in the models. I've tried to account for those but this forecast could get outdated quickly. Sorry for the length.
___________________________________________________________
Track: A low pressure system will develop in northern Georgia on Friday morning and track up the coast throughout the day and on Friday night before reaching Cape Cod during the early morning hours on Saturday. The exact track (right now 50 miles either side of Cape Cod) will decide final snowfall amounts (how far inland the juice ends up).
Precipitation Type: All snow in far NW MA, NY State from Poughkeepsie northward, all of NH except coastal sections, all of Vermont, all of ME away from the coastal areas. I-95 region will start as mainly snow but will change to sleet and rain between BOS, PVD, and NYC. The amount of rain will depend on the final track of the surface low. Some significant sleet on top of the snow could occur in the far southern Hudson River Valley, NYC, western L.I., all of CT, and a good chunk of interior MA.
Initial Snowfall Forecast from noon Friday to 4pm Saturday: This is preliminary and an update will not come till late tomorrow night (flight gets into Albany at 10:45pm). I'll do this by general regions where I expect snowfall to exceed 6”...due to time, if your area is not on here I’m not expecting 6” or more. This forecast is listed for points SW (starting with Catskills) to NE (Maine) of the interior.
Catskills: 6-12” with all snow. Some spots may exceed 12” especially along the eastern slopes where orographic enhancement from easterly winds will occur.
Hudson River Valley including Poughkeepsie and Albany: 6-12” with POU seeing the best chance at 12”. My fear here is that easterly winds cause some downsloping off the Berkshires and could reduce snowfall amounts up towards Albany. I am leaning towards 6-9” for the immediate Albany area.
Berkshires: Heavy snowfall here with 10-15”.
Interior MA, NW of I-90/I-495 especially the RT 2 corridor: 5-9” with some accumulation of sleet on top.
Southern VT (South of Killington): Heavy snowfall with 10-15” of accumulation.
Central and Northern VT (Killington and points north): Significant snow with 7-15”. I’m leaving a larger range here due to less confidence in the NW extent of very heavy snowfall but feel, at the worst, this area is still looking at 7-9”.
White Mountains: Heavy snowfall with 10-15”
Sunday River and Sugarloaf in Maine: Heavy snow, 10-15” of snowfall.
DISCUSSION: The latest guidance still shows some minor but large differences for those along the western edge, particularly for an area including Binghamton, Albany, Glens Falls, Rutland, and Burlington. The 00z NAM has below a half inch of liquid in the Albany-Burlington corridor (more like .3") while the GFS has more than twice that at .75" or greater in that area. Bullseye looks to be in the Berkshires, southern VT, interior MA (say NW of an I-90/I-495 zone), most of NH, and ME. Killington northward is a little up in the air but I'm confident these areas are looking at a solid 6"+ along the Green Mtn spine and eastward. I'm not forecasting this but for those who like to dream, I saw the NWS AWIPS snowfall graphic from the 0z GFS and its got a 15"+ zone running from the Berkshires northward up the Green Mtn Spine then northwest across the northern half of NH and into ME including Sunday River and Sugarloaf. Remember, the NAM is about half that.
This storm will be fueled by strong warm air advection and will have a decent surge of Gulf and Atlantic moisture to work with. One interesting aspect is the lack of a strong westward pitch of moisture back into central NY like one would expect with this sort of track. The dynamics with this are not overly impressive (one cause for concern) in their set-up especially at 250mb and at 500mb I'd like to see a cut-off low for a widespread chance at 12" or greater. Also, the two pieces of energy that will form this storm are making me nervous in that this is not a slam dunk by any means. One jet streak will round the base of the trough and start to come up the coast before its hit from behind with more energy dropping out of Manitoba. This second infusion of energy is going to trigger the cyclogensis along the eastern seaboard. Knowing that the second hit of E (energy) is still in a data sparse region of northern Canada, there could be some big surprises during the day tomorrow.
The positives include favorable dendrite snow growth and higher than 10:1 ratios in an area bounded by Albany, Burlington, Rangley (ME), back to Lebanon (NH). This area will be well inside the cold sector and will not see the warming aloft that areas further SE will…all WAA events this winter have produced sleet and mixed precip farther north than progged so I’m going to give myself a buffer zone northwest of the current progs. As I've been writing this, more data has come in and the global models support the GFS, so will lean towards that for now though I hate discounting the NAM.
SnowRider
New member
Not to be a broken record but if a lot of snow falls at bromley will it be reall pow snow or dense pack snow?
SKIQUATTRO
New member
6"+ forecasted for here on Long Island, praying the mtns get it....
