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The second half

Tin

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Getting close to the half way point for many areas. Early on was a bit warm for snowmaking which caused some delays in trail expansion and openings. Late November to mid December had some amazing up slope events. Then things got a bit boring followed by the typical January melt down that started last week.

Now for the second half. Already an interesting deal on Wed-Thurs, does the meltdown continue or does it help recovery? Like everything else thus far this year, already trending colder!

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ss20

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Well...Vermont might get re-loaded in a surprise storm next Tuesday night-Thursday...but I am seriously concerned about places south of the MA/CT border that might have to shutdown after next weekend...zero cold on the horizon for the flatlands. Temps in the 40s and 50s Tuesday onward without freezing at night. Doesn't look like we'll see truly cold air until the 26th or 27th!!!
 

Tin

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You better not be channeling Tuna!

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We all have an "inner Tuna". When we straightline trails or get excited about 1-3" of snow mixing with rain, the Tuna is unleashed. And in that moment, we know what it is like to truly feel alive.


Looking better this morning, ticking south still. Mid levels might be a concern though.
 

Tin

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It will curse it all! I won't buy in until Tuesday, way too many variables and could be a nasty mixed bag. Just fun to watch. Pre-dawn Weds night into Thursday afternoon.
 

bdfreetuna

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I like the way the models are going.

Tin since you were just up at Jay what do you think my chances are of taking my wife on Pump house off the ridge if they get 12" before Saturday? I'm trying to force her out of her comfort zone a little before our Tahoe trip.
 

Tin

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I like the way the models are going.

Tin since you were just up at Jay what do you think my chances are of taking my wife on Pump house off the ridge if they get 12" before Saturday? I'm trying to force her out of her comfort zone a little before our Tahoe trip.

Doesn't sound like a good idea, at all. I would not have skied it last week.

There was minimal coverage that was there is now gone. Shiny ice could be seen on the ridge, Valhalla, and Beret from the Bonny. I mean, Can Am was bordeline in terms of coverage and probably should have been roped, saw no one go down it wall day. It was sharks teeth and ice when we did.

I probably would have taken a look but I would not have tried it given the shine it had to it from afar. Not worth ending a season over, and missing a trip to Tahoe for you guys. I'm no expert on those chutes but given what I've seen, I would imagine in "good" conditions those are difficult than most things in Tahoe. Legit survival skiing and don't fall. I think 12" on it last week and no wind scouring then "yes". After the meltdown, no way.

I don't know how your wife skiing these days but for a comparison (not competition) my partner can get down Poma, Red Line, Paradise and the entire Lifeline at MRG, and I wouldn't even take her down the Face Chutes, nevermind the Saddle and Pumphouse.

MadMadWorld knows a lot more about them than I. He mentioned if Beret and the Face Chutes were sketchy, don't bother with trying to go off the Saddle.
 
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4aprice

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All aboard the JB train, 2nd half will produce.

Just an observation. It seems to want to snow this year. (as opposed to last year where it didn't) We have had a couple of decent little snowfalls this year that weren't really predicted to be anything. Yesterday, a good example as snowfall seemed to catch the local towns off guard where the roads became pretty treacherous for a while. Just an observation.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ
 

bdfreetuna

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I've never skied off the Saddle myself. Conditions and my own level of bravery have yet to coalesce at the right time. Pump house I think isn't actually too "hard"... as long as we're not counting style points.. but it does have a decent pucker factor that's aided by the exposure on the ridge.

Your advice sounds very good though, I'm wondering why I even asked such a foolish question last night (beer). That's not the kind of terrain I want to be dealing with any ice.

I'm sure your partner gets treated to many adventures as does my wife :lol:
 

Tin

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If it doesn't come through I WILL NEVER POST ANOTHER SNOW MAP. The GFS has a north bias and the Euro has been garbage most of the year. Inside 60 hours go elsewhere. If we all sacrifice virgins and farm animals maybe a similar "April Fool's Day Blizzard" to help out the snow starved southern NE ski areas?

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Glenn

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Here's to things trending colder for the upcoming week! I've heard rumblings that we're in for a favorable pattern shift as we get into February.
 

Tin

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All over the place over night. Euro warmer, GFS colder, 4km NAM hates VT, 3km NAM likes from Stratton north, RGEM in line with yesterday's EURO for a more southern solution.

NWS Boston is discussing a serious ice issue for western Mass, NWS Burlington is really low on totals and NWS Grey appears more optimistic for heavier snow. Their maps don't line up well.
 

Puck it

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All over the place over night. Euro warmer, GFS colder, 4km NAM hates VT, 3km NAM likes from Stratton north, RGEM in line with yesterday's EURO for a more southern solution.

NWS Boston is discussing a serious ice issue for western Mass, NWS Burlington is really low on totals and NWS Grey appears more optimistic for heavier snow. Their maps don't line up well.
Calling for 5-7 at cannon.
 

Tin

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There is the GFS vs. NAM vs. EURO/RGEM.

If you toss the EURO/RGEM then yes, the Whites definitely make out best and 5-7" sounds good for most of them, maybe a little more at Wildcat. Paste with not a ton of wind so it shouldn't be blown around too much.

Go with EURO/RGEM which is a very possible solution, then most of the snow (4-8") is confined to the hills of Mass, Gunstock/Ragged south, and SVT with the Whites and K north getting 2-4" and less as you move north.

Just a wait and see situation as models, weather agencies, and news channel meteorologists are all over the place.

Looking like two big chances for next week.
 
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slatham

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Be careful thinking there is a powder day coming this week, except way north and high. This will be a good net gainer but most spots will at least mix with sleet. And those pretty maps usually over predict accumulation when there's a mix involved (they think its all snow). So base builder yes, blower pow day, no. But we need the former and not the later right now.

Tin, on Euro, agree up close it gets weird. But it started turning colder with this storm on Friday way before other models.

Lets hope we get lucky with the following two systems coming through too, before what looks like a pattern change circa 1/25.
 

Tin

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Be careful thinking there is a powder day coming this week, except way north and high. This will be a good net gainer but most spots will at least mix with sleet. And those pretty maps usually over predict accumulation when there's a mix involved (they think its all snow). So base builder yes, blower pow day, no. But we need the former and not the later right now.

Tin, on Euro, agree up close it gets weird. But it started turning colder with this storm on Friday way before other models.

Lets hope we get lucky with the following two systems coming through too, before what looks like a pattern change circa 1/25.


Yes, looking forward to some cement skiing on my big sticks. I believe certain NAM models account for the 1:1 with sleet, thus the drastic cut off in southern VT.

100% with the EURO, NYC is still looking for their 50" that was promised on 1/25/2015 and 2013 when Branford and SW CT HAD 4-5' on the ground instead of NYC. It develops systems too quickly. Very interesting to see the RGEM in line with it though. RGEM started off last year great then lost it, it was very good on 12/18, 12/30, the wasted Blue Hill Mauler system last weekend. Hoping it keeps up!

*EDIT* - 12z NAM hi res came in colder like the EURO/RGEM
 
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Savemeasammy

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I like the way the models are going.

Tin since you were just up at Jay what do you think my chances are of taking my wife on Pump house off the ridge if they get 12" before Saturday? I'm trying to force her out of her comfort zone a little before our Tahoe trip.

You will find plenty of terrain in Tahoe to challenge your wife, and the coverage will make it much more manageable. Also the lack of trees in many spots makes it a bit "easier". I skied Alpine Meadows back in the day, and there is plenty of stuff there that an aspiring advanced skier can challenge themselves on. IIRC, the 3 sisters off of the Summit chair are some chutes that are pretty manageable. You'll be able to find plenty of stuff though....


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