The second half

[snoseek]

At this point ill gladly settle for not rain in northern NH. Any accumulating snow would be a bonus.

 

[tnt1234]

Yes, looking forward to some cement skiing on my big sticks. I believe certain NAM models account for the 1:1 with sleet, thus the drastic cut off in southern VT.

100% with the EURO, NYC is still looking for their 50" that was promised on 1/25/2015 and 2013 when Branford and SW CT HAD 4-5' on the ground instead of NYC. It develops systems too quickly. Very interesting to see the RGEM in line with it though. RGEM started off last year great then lost it, it was very good on 12/18, 12/30, the wasted Blue Hill Mauler system last weekend. Hoping it keeps up!

*EDIT* - 12z NAM hi res came in colder like the EURO/RGEM

Um....so, for the idiots like me.....is what you are saying good or bad?

 

[bdfreetuna]

You will find plenty of terrain in Tahoe to challenge your wife, and the coverage will make it much more manageable. Also the lack of trees in many spots makes it a bit "easier". I skied Alpine Meadows back in the day, and there is plenty of stuff there that an aspiring advanced skier can challenge themselves on. IIRC, the 3 sisters off of the Summit chair are some chutes that are pretty manageable. You'll be able to find plenty of stuff though....

My wife and I are both of the opinion that trees make steeps easier. Something about that vertigo, it's nice to have a vertical frame of reference at least in the peripherals.

NAM 3k puts the bullseye on Killington and Pico. Let's see.

 

[Tin]

Um....so, for the idiots like me.....is what you are saying good or bad?

I don't know shit about it either.

Depends on where you are.

 

[Tin]

I'll be shooting first Berkie Wednesday, Magic Thursday. Hoping and thinking, for a widespread 5-9" deal from northern Mass to the ski areas of southern VT, thinking the southern NH areas like Pat's, Crotch, Ragged, etc. jackpot.

GFS, EURO, 3KM, RGEM...

 

[bdfreetuna]

Let's hope this storm hits big and chase the snow where ever it lands-- next week is starting to look like a real shit sandwich. Some potential #$&% next Tuesday.

If next week can turn into a snow surprise like this one that would be beautiful though. Looking pretty warm though..

 

[Tin]

Let's hope this storm hits big and chase the snow where ever it lands-- next week is starting to look like a real shit sandwich. Some potential #$&% next Tuesday.

Thermal profiles and locations of high pressures (just like the one in Atlantic Canada next week) have absolutely sucked this year on the GFS, thus the constant warm rain to mix/snow events within day 5 or so. It wouldn't shock me if that thing ended up trending crazy south and becoming another Cape Cod crusher lol.

Southern NH still wins, Berkshire's might be screwed.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I dont really post in the weather threads anymore, but put me down for thinking this one might possibly over-perform expectations.

 

[bdfreetuna]

I dont really post in the weather threads anymore, but put me down for thinking this one might possibly over-perform expectations.

Not my expectations :lol:

 

[Tin]

12z models are juicier but ratios will be under 10:1.

 

[mccleaks]

NH news stations are calling for wide spread 5"-7". Saying it should finish up right around sun rise tomorrow. Is there any more to this that the weather nuts can weigh in on? Maybe some localized jackpots at elevation?

 

[bdfreetuna]

Elevation is going to make a big difference expect higher amounts than that at elevation and maybe lower amounts in the valleys. I also would put the spine of the Greens including southern Greens and the ADK high peaks in the "good" zone.

Latest GFS run shows a big hit for Mt Snow. NAM has it more evenly spread around depending on elevation with the best for central/south NH and central VT. I'm gonna wait to see who gets what and make my plans for the weekend accordingly.

I think NoVT may do as well at elevation because it will snow there longer Wed into maybe Thurs. The snow might be less dense as well.

 

[mccleaks]

Elevation is going to make a big difference expect higher amounts than that at elevation and maybe lower amounts in the valleys. I also would put the spine of the Greens including southern Greens and the ADK high peaks in the "good" zone.

Latest GFS run shows a big hit for Mt Snow. NAM has it more evenly spread around depending on elevation with the best for central/south NH and central VT. I'm gonna wait to see who gets what and make my plans for the weekend accordingly.

I think NoVT may do as well at elevation because it will snow there longer Wed into maybe Thurs.

Awesome. I think I feel a cold coming on. Probably make a run for Southern NH tomorrow morning.

 

[Tin]

Awesome. I think I feel a cold coming on. Probably make a run for Southern NH tomorrow morning.

It is going to be legit cement and there are going to be some serious screw holes. I'm still thinking Crotched for a jackpot. That 12z GFS is interesting though.

 

[mccleaks]

It is going to be legit cement and there are going to be some serious screw holes. I'm still thinking Crotched for a jackpot. That 12z GFS is interesting though.

Still should be better tomorrow than after warm days Thursday, Friday, Saturday though right? I'll take 30 degree cement over 40 degree slop

 

[Jully]

It is going to be legit cement and there are going to be some serious screw holes. I'm still thinking Crotched for a jackpot. That 12z GFS is interesting though.

Crotched is where I was thinking too. I wonder how it'll be by the night though, or if I need to get sick and miss work. If its not snowing throughout the day, then that makes me feel the latter is the better option.

 

[bdfreetuna]

Between NAM, GFS and Canadian it's like 3 different storms. My hope is that since it's going to be dense snow it won't get skied off and make a nice surface through the weekend.

Could be the kind of snow that makes woods skiable even with a shallow base. We'll see!

 

[Tin]

And now the Euro matches the high liquid totals the 12z GFS had in southern VT. This one is getting fun.

It is a very disorganized deal and is reliant on some inflow/backbuilding to get over those 6" numbers in the Berkshires and southern VT. I still think southern NH areas are safe at 6"+, just a matter of whether southern VT grabs that enhanced, 1"+ per hour stuff in the early hours of the storm and then again between about 6-9 am. That would put them in the 6"+ category for Bromley, Magic, Mountain Snow, Stratton, and maybe even up to K/Pico.

 

[Glenn]

This will be a fun one to watch on the VT webcams tonight.

 

[Tin]

This will be a fun one to watch on the VT webcams tonight.

Yes, the mesos are all over the place for it. Could be 3-4" for that route 2 section of Mass into SVT or a lot more.