The "Sugarbush Thread"

[Hawk]

The long range looks like we might see a shift. But who knows. We have been due for a really crappy year. I just hope it is not all of this year.

 

[WinS]

The long range looks like we might see a shift. But who knows. We have been due for a really crappy year. I just hope it is not all of this year.

I remember the winter that Claneil threw in the towel. Grass was growing under the Bravo lift on MLK weekend. We have always had January thaws but the multiple roller coasters this year are more than I remember. As we all know, forecasts more than some hours out can be very unreliable. That said our proprietary weather forecast is calling for “showers” during the day on Saturday and then rain overnight changing to snow. If there is no inversion the summits could see snow earlier. The forecast is calling for more “normal” temps and weather settling on next week. Stay tuned. At least we know the turns will be soft on Saturday. Stein’s and some others might be a nice as the last time we had a day like what is forecasted for Saturday.

 

[flakeydog]

Could certainly be better, but also worse...

Granted this is Mt Mansfield but you can see we are below average this year. For contrast, last year was great (upper line) but 2015-16 was definitely an off year (lower line).

I added 2006-07 in there because that was the year of the infamous Valentine's day storm followed by the St Patrick's day storm after. That season started out like this one and really ended up being "average" even though it is often cited as a great season. We shall see what happens in Feb-March. The long-range basically has most of the rest of January holding as it has been so far.

 

[Newpylong]

It's New England, been happening as long as I can seriously remember (about '80 and on). All it takes is the Jet to ridge west and there ALWAYS seems to be a strong Low tracking in when it does.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using AlpineZone mobile app

This will be the 4th large scale rain/thaw event since the beginning of December - fairly exceptional I think if you laid it all out.

 

[cdskier]

I added 2006-07 in there because that was the year of the infamous Valentine's day storm followed by the St Patrick's day storm after. That season started out like this one and really ended up being "average" even though it is often cited as a great season. We shall see what happens in Feb-March. The long-range basically has most of the rest of January holding as it has been so far.

I was actually just thinking of that season last night. Back then I was only doing about 1 weekend a year at SB (and it happened to be St Patrick's weekend that year). Even though I was skiing all over the place, I still closely followed SB's conditions and weather. MLK was when the weather really turned around and if I remember correctly, one key to great conditions after that was the fact that temps did not really go above freezing from MLK until shortly before the St Patrick's day storm. So that helped preserve conditions nicely. St Patrick's day weekend that year also happened to be the first time I ever skied Castlerock. I was obviously a bit spoiled by that experience!

 

[MEtoVTSkier]

This will be the 4th large scale rain/thaw event since the beginning of December - fairly exceptional I think if you laid it all out.

...and if the long range models are anywhere near close, it may not be the last either...

 

[HowieT2]

my recollection of '06-'07 is that it started off much worse than this season has. either way, it seems january is almost always up and down before things start to turn around super bowl weekend. Then the snowpack gets going around presidents day vacation week.
I've been hedging my bets by going to bc the last 4 years in early to mid february. While I miss being at sb consistently all season, the snow out there has been dreamy.

 

[slatham]

my recollection of '06-'07 is that it started off much worse than this season has. either way, it seems january is almost always up and down before things start to turn around super bowl weekend. Then the snowpack gets going around presidents day vacation week.
I've been hedging my bets by going to bc the last 4 years in early to mid february. While I miss being at sb consistently all season, the snow out there has been dreamy.

Yes, MLK was more like a well covered thanksgiving or a poor christmas, with many areas having little/no natural snow. Then at the end of the MLK weekend it flipped and pounded. But beforehand it looked it would be the worst season ever.

 

[kingslug]

I remember the St pats storm. Met a bunch of people from Alta and JH on Chinclip at Stowe..why??..they were having having a crappy period..warm
Chinclip was knee deep due to the gondi being out the day before.

 

[HowieT2]

I remember the St pats storm. Met a bunch of people from Alta and JH on Chinclip at Stowe..why??..they were having having a crappy period..warm
Chinclip was knee deep due to the gondi being out the day before.

and easter too.

 

[ktrerotola]

This will be the 4th large scale rain/thaw event since the beginning of December - fairly exceptional I think if you laid it all out.

We haven’t had windchill days yet either... and certainly saw them in December 2018 and 2017 as well as seasons prior. I’d take those over rain any day.


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[tumbler]

If rain holds off until Saturday late afternoon and night I might still consider the trip. I don't need to sit up there drinking and watching it rain the whole time, i can do that at home...

 

[KustyTheKlown]

ugh, fighting my way up to noVT for saturday only, after a warm up and likely freeze friday night into saturday, with sunday as a total washout. not gonna happen.

next weekend (MLK) my only free option is magic, and it will take a major turnaround next week to get them worthwhile. i suppose i could go pay up at smuggs or bolton if the skiing is worth it.

i hate the prospect of missing two consecutive weekends in january.

i usually go out west for mlk but gave my girlfriend and wallet a rest. regret. flights to seattle and denver are now $500 for friday - monday

 

[kingslug]

Yup..Jan is a great time to escape..but it really has been a good early season..both south and north..
Ill ski in the rain localy if i have to sunday at Hunter..a warm afternoon there is ok.
Seems like very few people here consider it an option..but its so close to many areas and is..steep..
I think sunday will be empty and if the sun comes out in the afternoon..it will be a good day

 

[tumbler]

Forecast starting to change, Saturday not looking as bad. Now overnight into Sunday morning

 

[cdskier]

Forecast starting to change, Saturday not looking as bad. Now overnight into Sunday morning

Still having a hard time convincing myself it is worth a 5 hour drive for one day of spring skiing that may or may not involve rain and/or wind.

 

[KustyTheKlown]

^yep, that. my eggs are all in the next weekend basket. i reserved a room near burke and one near magic. i can ski free/pre-paid at magic, but if conditions are seriously better at burke (they will be), i'll pay for a couple days. final decisions this time next week.

 

[kingslug]

I'm seeing rain in all the forecasts for points North. Hunter reports possible early sprinkle then clearing up Sunday. Makes sense since the winds are coming from the South.

 

[cdskier]

Latest on the Infinite Sports fire...may be a few weeks before Mehurons reopens according to the article:

https://www.valleyreporter.com/index.php/news/local-news/13996-four-alarm-fire-closes-businesses

 

[ThinkSnow]

Oh man that sucks.