The "Sugarbush Thread"

[thetrailboss]

I've said this before but as long as NRX is running reasonably well Altera will not spring for a replacement. It's gonna have to fail in an obviously bad-looking way. I call BS on the noises about permitting. I think it's just smokescreen to make ppl think the ball is starting to roll. Paperwork is (relatively) cheap

And permits, once issued, have a shelf life.

 

[slatham]

2025/2026 on the whole is turning into a financial disaster for Vail and presumably Alterra. Not many new toys coming down the pipeline.

 

[fulgoreXC]

Good reminder - does anyone ever know what happened to the Sugarbush Gate House Mountain Bike Trails permitting process?

Green Mountain and Finger Lakes National Forests : NEPA Project - Sugarbush Gate House Mountain Bike Trails

www.fs.usda.gov

I presume it got killed when they shut down Super Bravo but curious if anyone knows if it's still "open".

My understanding is permit conditions would be too onerous. so its on the shelf for now

 

[ducky]

Unfortunately, Margo Wade just passed away way too young. She handled all of the mountain's devolpment applications. They had a run in her honor last Saturday.

 

[HowieT2]

2025/2026 on the whole is turning into a financial disaster for Vail and presumably Alterra. Not many new toys coming down the pipeline.

Obviously out west the situation is bad but with pass sales locked in before the season, is it really a ”financial disaster” for ikon/alterra?

 

[Lotso]

Obviously out west the situation is bad but with pass sales locked in before the season, is it really a ”financial disaster” for ikon/alterra?

They are probably insulated for that reason. Local businesses and instructors, et al not so much

 

[Hawk]

Yet another freezing cold weekend. But there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel!

 

[vtboarder]

This could have been a great start to President's week

 

[Lotso]

Pretty amazing out there today. Love the sun. Sunrise groomed. All good.

 

[machski]

Yet another freezing cold weekend. But there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel!

We all pray it's light at the end of the tunnel. This is New England after all, hate pattern shifts away from the artic ones.

 

[Lotso]

We all pray it's light at the end of the tunnel. This is New England after all, hate pattern shifts away from the artic ones.

Looks OK for next 8-14 days: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

But the big "above normal" temperature blob to the west is concerning if it wanders east as usual and ends up being WAY above normal...

 

[KustyTheKlown]

Yet another freezing cold weekend. But there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel!

Right on time for me too.

Going to banff and revelstoke on Feb 15 and they’ve had the same dire January as everyone else. Fortunately they had a banner December and coverage is great, just needs daily refreshes to keep the skiing fun and soft, which seems on the menu starting around Feb 9.

I’m also glad the cold will break before I leave the missus and cat in our house for two weeks. First year as homeowners and such so I’m glad this cold snap will be over here

 

[vtboarder]

Looks OK for next 8-14 days: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

But the big "above normal" temperature blob to the west is concerning if it wanders east as usual and ends up being WAY above normal...

expect it first week of March, have tribe coming up from down south. Never fails they bring high temps and mud. Wonder if there is some type of sacrifice that can be made to Ullr to prevent it?

 

[fulgoreXC]

Unfortunately, Margo Wade just passed away way too young. She handled all of the mountain's devolpment applications. They had a run in her honor last Saturday.

She will be dearly missed. I hope SB can attract someone half as good. If so, and with the current team they will be fine.

 

[fulgoreXC]

The long-term forecast is looking pretty good. I'm thinking once we get past this coming weekend the next month is going to be goldilocks weather. except for some possible non-frozen precip in early March.

 

[cdskier]

Looks OK for next 8-14 days: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

But the big "above normal" temperature blob to the west is concerning if it wanders east as usual and ends up being WAY above normal...

Keep in mind those colors just represent probability of being a departure from “average”. Dark red could still only be ever so slightly above average for temperatures.

 

[solar]

Obviously out west the situation is bad but with pass sales locked in before the season, is it really a ”financial disaster” for ikon/alterra?

If you dig into Vail's 10-K filings, they mention that lift revenue (including EPIC and non-EPIC) is ~60% of their net revenue. Elsewhere you can find mention of the non-EPIC breakdown and can deduct that around 40% of their $3B net revenue comes from EPIC pass sales.

That's a pretty big potential swing, especially if they suspect that this years snow performance will impact '26/27 EPIC sales.

 

[slatham]

Keep in mind those colors just represent probability of being a departure from “average”. Dark red could still only be ever so slightly above average for temperatures.

Agreed, that is not a FORECAST, just a probability of a binary outcome. Hate those maps.

 

[thetrailboss]

As they say, if you don't like the weather, wait a minute.......

 

[Lotso]

Keep in mind those colors just represent probability of being a departure from “average”. Dark red could still only be ever so slightly above average for temperatures.

I know. Above normal could be 30 or it could be 50. Hoping for the former.