Thunder & Lightning

[Vano]

9pm Wednesday, its January and there is thunder and lightning in the skies of Southern New Jersey. THIS SUCKS!

I am on the fence here - to Jay or not to Jay on Sunday... I am leaning towards going right now because, if we get lucky, 8 to 12" are a possibility on Saturday evening and night. The good thing is, I still have 48 hours to decide before heading up.

 

[Greg]

Likewise on the T&L, and on the sucking part... :angry:

 

[LVNLARG]

Perhaps 6 Flags Great Adventure might be more in order ? :lol:

 

[thetrailboss]

I'm not sure who is feeding you the 8-12" line...maybe Jay marketing? :-?

Pouring right now 80 miles south of there and local and state forecasts are calling for warm temps and nasty R%^& between now and Sunday. :angry:

 

[awf170]

I'm not sure who is feeding you the 8-12" line...maybe Jay marketing? :-?

Pouring right now 80 miles south of there and local and state forecasts are calling for warm temps and nasty R%^& between now and Sunday. :angry:

 

[thetrailboss]

I'm not sure who is feeding you the 8-12" line...maybe Jay marketing? :-?

Pouring right now 80 miles south of there and local and state forecasts are calling for warm temps and nasty R%^& between now and Sunday. :angry:

Oh boy....here we go again with the Accuweather :roll: As much as I hope that is true, it is still accuweather we're talking about.

 

[Vano]

No1 is "feeding" me the 8 to 12 inches. It is a possiblity at this point, it is unlikely, but a possibility. But we won't know for sure until later, say Friday eve. The fact that its raining right now has no bearing on whether it will snow 8 to 12 inches 3 days from now. I am willing to bet (and I am no weather man) that the top of Jay will see considerable snow before Sunday is over. I think the biggest problem is - what is going to be under that snow? If it keeps raining like it has been there could be a few inches of snow on top of pure ice.

 

[Zand]

They are getting 8-12" Saturday night. That's what happens during a Nor'Easter. Sunday, temps will be in the low to mid 10s with howling winds and windchills way below zero. Man, everyone has to be such pessimists just because it is raining right now. It happened in October and look what happened... 3 feet of snow suddenly plopped into northern NE. We need optimists during times like this. :wink:

 

[NYDrew]

At least it was really cool lightening on long island.

 

[BeanoNYC]

At least it was really cool lightening on long island.

Yep, I couldn't believe the thunder and lightening last night. I shut my video game last off last night and still heard it. I thought it was the vicoden the doctor prescribed for my shoulder!

 

[Terry]

No rain here till late last night. Spent 3 hours after work carving the nicest soft snow of the season at Shawnee Peak last night! Just like spring skiing!! Was raining hard by 11 oclock though. :angry: We shall have to wait and see what the conditions are tonight! :beer:

 

[JBHeadParrot]

Wednesday night , 1/11

Thunder and Lightning here in Farmington, CT.

 

[thetrailboss]

They are getting 8-12" Saturday night. That's what happens during a Nor'Easter. Sunday, temps will be in the low to mid 10s with howling winds and windchills way below zero. Man, everyone has to be such pessimists just because it is raining right now. It happened in October and look what happened... 3 feet of snow suddenly plopped into northern NE. We need optimists during times like this. :wink:

No, I'm trying to be realistic. When someone says "x,y,z is going to happen," without any support or sources, then I am skeptical. We went through this in October :wink: It also goes back to someone in another state trying to tell me what the weather is going to be like up here. Um, OK. :roll:

That aside. Local weather guru Roger Hill on WDEV is forecasting rain to a snow event...with maybe, and that's a maybe 1-2 feet in the mountains if the European and Canadian forecast models pan out. I will check Mt Washington and Fairbanks later today...

 

[Vano]

It has got to happen! It would be wrong if we didn't get at least one good ski day this weekend.

I don't have the luxury of waiting until the night before or day of to decide to go since im from NJ. I need to take a chance and commit by Friday afternoon... and so far its looking like a Go to me.

 

[Powdr]

Just curious: In the West when we get a warm system, we just head higher to perenial snow safe places such as Mt. Rose, Kirkwood, Alta/Bird, Arapahoe, Loveland, Targhee, etc. Is there a generally regarded snow safe area in the East? Maybe somethng up in Maine, Quebec, or Nova Scotia? Also how does Mt. Washington fare in these conditions? Does it always snow above a certain elevation there? Can you do back country up there in mid winter?

Just curious,

Powdr

 

[thetrailboss]

It has got to happen! It would be wrong if we didn't get at least one good ski day this weekend.

I agree. We can only wait I guess.

I don't have the luxury of waiting until the night before or day of to decide to go since im from NJ. I need to take a chance and commit by Friday afternoon... and so far its looking like a Go to me.

Well, if you're locked in, go for it. To be honest the skiing has been great until this warm up. New snow last week really, really helped. None of us can control the weather.

My original comment above, the "who is feeding you that line," was meant to protect you. Jay, as of late, has used way too much hype IMO. The last thing I would want is for you to buy into and get up there and have a bad time. Just trying to be realistic.

Snow is in the forecast for Sunday. How much is the question and, regrettably, wind is in the forecast which is bad for Jay. Best case: no wind, place is completely open or they are at least running the Jet. Worst case: lockdown on Sunday with the Metro Quad running :roll: Being a holiday weekend, I imagine that unless it is really windy, at least the Jet will be spinning. Wind is the four-letter word that Jay does not advertise and it's a PITA.

Roger Hill on WDEV this AM noted that there is going to be a large pressure gradient difference between the H and L systems, making a lot of wind for Sunday. I'd Google him or go to Roemer's website. Other weather sources include Fairbanks in the NEK, and Mount Washington Observatory. Good luck :beer:

 

[thetrailboss]

Just curious: In the West when we get a warm system, we just head higher to perenial snow safe places such as Mt. Rose, Kirkwood, Alta/Bird, Arapahoe, Loveland, Targhee, etc. Is there a generally regarded snow safe area in the East? Maybe somethng up in Maine, Quebec, or Nova Scotia? Also how does Mt. Washington fare in these conditions? Does it always snow above a certain elevation there? Can you do back country up there in mid winter?

Just curious,

Powdr

Hmmm...not really. The elevation and geography of the area plays a role. Mount Washington has Tuckerman's Ravine, which is a late season ski mecca. Jay Peak DOES get lots of snow, but lots of wind and ice as well. Bolton, Smuggs, Stowe, and Burke do get lots of snow, but they are all susceptible to rain as well.

When it comes to where do we retreat...well, I can't really think of any :roll: Tremblant? The 'loaf? These two still are vulnerable as well. I guess we wait it out and come to AZ to escape it :lol:

 

[Vano]

My original comment above, the "who is feeding you that line," was meant to protect you. Jay, as of late, has used way too much hype IMO. The last thing I would want is for you to buy into and get up there and have a bad time. Just trying to be realistic.

I understand. Thanks.

Snow is in the forecast for Sunday. How much is the question and, regrettably, wind is in the forecast which is bad for Jay.

My understanding is that Jay is pretty liberal about letting people hike up to trails that have wind closings. I was there last winter and was able to do a few hikes up Montrealer while the Jet was closed for 3 good powder runs. I don't have a problem with doing that again this time as long as the snow is OK. Of course this is all speculation - I need to see forecasts for substantial snow on Sat night and Sunday to make the leap... if I do, I plan on skiing Jay Sunday and Monday. It does seem like Whiteface is going to get the most powder.

 

[awf170]

Maybe somethng up in Maine, Quebec, or Nova Scotia? Also how does Mt. Washington fare in these conditions? Does it always snow above a certain elevation there?

Mt. washington usually gets freezing rain out of storms like this because there almost always is a warm air layer at about 10,000 ft. If your on the eastern side of large storm it doesnt matter how high or north you are, it will rain.

Can you do back country up there in mid winter?

You can but it is really dangerious and there isnt much cover. People do but you have to have a lot of backcountry knowledge.

 

[LVNLARG]

Just curious: In the West when we get a warm system, we just head higher to perenial snow safe places such as Mt. Rose, Kirkwood, Alta/Bird, Arapahoe, Loveland, Targhee, etc. Is there a generally regarded snow safe area in the East? Maybe somethng up in Maine, Quebec, or Nova Scotia? Also how does Mt. Washington fare in these conditions? Does it always snow above a certain elevation there? Can you do back country up there in mid winter?

Just curious,

Powdr

The Quebec City area is usually a pretty safe bet. They're far North enough that they rarely end up on the wrong side of the jetstream and get little rain. Conditions there are currently amazing. They are forcasting some rain for the city on Sat but it may fall as snow in the mountains as the temp is forcast to be close to freezing. We (Nova Scotia) more often than not end up on the wrong side of the jetstream and get winter rain a LOT. The jet stream often pushes off the East coast of the US in winter and cuts thru the Bay of Fundy isolating Nova Scotia on the Warm side of it and pulling southern storms directly at us at a high rate of speed (keeping them from losing their southern storm power). It's this same fact that enables us to get record snowfalls from time to time as the warm and cold sides of the jetstream flip flop back and forth here on a regular basis. It's currently 42 and raining here. Was 50 earlier.