Tracking weathermen

[ajl50]

So I'm super bored in class and I'm super ticked off at the weather and the forecasters who keep calling for it to turn colder so I've decided to track their predictions against the actual.
I'm taking the 10 day forecasts from NWS, Weather.com and Accuweather for Wilmington NY ( whiteface) and Hoboken every day this winter and then I'm comparing them to the actual reported weather.
Any guesses on what I'll find?

 

[Greg]

So I'm super bored in class and I'm super ticked off at the weather and the forecasters who keep calling for it to turn colder so I've decided to track their predictions against the actual.
I'm taking the 10 day forecasts from NWS, Weather.com and Accuweather for Wilmington NY ( whiteface) and Hoboken every day this winter and then I'm comparing them to the actual reported weather.
Any guesses on what I'll find?

Sounds like an interesting undertaking. Are you going to publish the results somewhere?

 

[ski_resort_observer]

The 7-10 day forcast will be woefully inaccurate while the 2/3 day forcasts will be pretty right-on. Looking forward to following your project, maybe you can turn it into a class project.

 

[ajl50]

"Sounds like an interesting undertaking. Are you going to publish the results somewhere?"
Of course- right here...in some long post one winter day when the weatherman called for snow and it's pouring outside.

I think the 2-3 day forecasts will be pretty good- and I'll break that down at the end..
I'm also thinking of tracking forecasted precip but that creates a problem for me since I'm not sure I want to start getting angry if the forecast calls for 1 inch of rain and we get .5 or if it calls for 8 inches of snow and we get 5.
I'm thinking that I'll only record Predicted Significant events...and see how that works out.

 

[bvibert]

Interesting project, be sure to keep us updated!