Vail Resorts is buying Peak Resorts.

[machski]

Have they purchased anyone yet in the east that was a major early or late season player? Stowe never made a significant push in any recent years prior to Vail to open early or close late so Vail had no major reason to make any changes there.

As for expanding early/late season offerings out west, you'd have to think the primary driver of that was the loss of A-Basin and the fact that they obviously felt they needed some sort of early/late offering in that market. Will they feel the same in the east with Mt Snow and Wildcat? Will they decide to only have one of those early and late instead of both? Only time will tell...

True Stowe did not push for super early or late, but prior to Vail if April conditions warranted, I felt like they'd add a couple extra weeks. Hasn't seemed like Vail would do that at Stowe now. I think Okemo added a week this year under Vail but I know Sunapee closed quite early, more so than they would have previously.

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[BenedictGomez]

I'm also having a hard time understanding how a company like Vail could determine if they make money or loose money in the few early or late season weeks of operation. With the majority of early/late season skiers being on season passes, I can't figure out how a company would determine what percentage of the season pass price be allocated as income during those weeks.

Actually it's now much easier to do that calculus for the very reason you note, the majority are on season passes.

True Stowe did not push for super early or late, but prior to Vail if April conditions warranted, I felt like they'd add a couple extra weeks. Hasn't seemed like Vail would do that at Stowe now.

Early season makes no difference, but Stowe would have likely gone longer another week had it not been bought by Vail in the solid snow year.

 

[thebigo]

Cat season length is not the only reason I choose it over Cannon, but it's certainly part of it.

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Would not consider a cannon pass again but my family will likely migrate to a combination of ragged and Ikon if they contract the season at wildcat. Ikon is a compelling option for those who value a long season in the east, just wish they had something unlimited in nh.

 

[mbedle]

With the data available to us today from scanning pass media and modern software capabilities, it's actually relatively easy to allocate deferred revenue from products like season passes. There's more than one way to go about it... some areas still recognize the revenue completely on the first day of the season, some split the revenue recognition evenly across each day of the operating season, and others get more granular and accurate (and thus more useful for the kind of decisions you're discussing). As an example of the latter, you could calculate average season pass usage in days (we'll call this x), divide the pass price by x giving us y, then recognize y dollars over the first x scans of each pass. Probably easier to look at a hypothetical scenario:

Great Big Ski Area sells season passes. Based on previous seasons' data, Great Big Ski Area knows that its adult passholders ski an average of 12 days per season. Adult passes to Great Big Ski Area cost $899. $899/12 = $74.92. Therefore on each of the first 12 scans of each adult pass, $74.92 of revenue is recognized. As the seasons come and go, the ski area has more and more data about when and how much passholders are skiing, and all of that data helps inform decisions about opening/closing/etc.

That's a bit of a simplified scenario, and obviously there are always outliers. But it should give you the gist that it's not too hard to pin down the profitability of really any day of the season, as this method can be applied to any multi-day, deferred revenue product. The single-day revenue is obviously quite easy to track (e.g. f&b, single lessons, day tickets, etc.). Comparing daily actuals + deferred recognition to actual operating expenses tells you all you need to know about operational profitability on a daily basis, and analyzing trends over multiple years allows ski area operators to make informed decisions about things like opening/closing dates.

Now whether or not profitability is or should be the only consideration is another topic entirely.

The only problem I see with that is that the typical early and late season skier is not your typical season pass holder. I do understand that with the availability of computers, scanners and pass holder data, there must be some way to estimate this.

 

[mbedle]

Actually it's now much easier to do that calculus for the very reason you note, the majority are on season passes.



Early season makes no difference, but Stowe would have likely gone longer another week had it not been bought by Vail in the solid snow year.

I am not sure that is true about Stowe historically pushing for a couple of extra weeks or week if conditions warranted it. I've been skiing there for the past 8 years and have never seen the closing date change because of conditions.

 

[mbedle]

Actually it's now much easier to do that calculus for the very reason you note, the majority are on season passes.



Early season makes no difference, but Stowe would have likely gone longer another week had it not been bought by Vail in the solid snow year.

How could it possibly be easier to calculate that number under a season pass senerio compared to actual daily window ticket purchases? That make not sense to me at all.

 

[mbedle]

How could it possibly be easier to calculate that number under a season pass senerio compared to actual daily window ticket purchases? That make not sense to me at all.

Alright, I take this back. At the end of the season, yes they would know exactly how much money they made (each season pass holder would have a per-visit $ amount available). I was thinking more in terms of the SEC quarterly reported earning and not having a final number of visits each early season skier actual was going to have.

 

[cdskier]

I am not sure that is true about Stowe historically pushing for a couple of extra weeks or week if conditions warranted it. I've been skiing there for the past 8 years and have never seen the closing date change because of conditions.

I ski an hour down the road, but I still always actively watch Stowe's closing date for comparison. In the past 10 years or so that I've been keeping an eye on it, I can't recall it ever really being extended either due to conditions. Latest closing date for Stowe in the past 15 years was April 29 and that was in 2007. Typical date is in the high teens/early 20s of April. Certainly plenty of times they had the snow to go longer before Vail came in.

 

[deadheadskier]

I am not sure that is true about Stowe historically pushing for a couple of extra weeks or week if conditions warranted it. I've been skiing there for the past 8 years and have never seen the closing date change because of conditions.

They did in the 90s and early 2000s. Typical closing date had always been third full weekend in April. Good snow years they'd extend a week. Never beyond that. Even the monster 2000-2001 season that they could have easily made second weekend in May, they still closed last weekend of April.

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[deadheadskier]

Still trying to wrap my head around the idea that Vail owns Wildcat
Haven't been following this thread. How do you and other Cat regulars feel about this? I've read mixed feedback when other similar acquisitions took place - some don't like that their quiet, off-the-beaten-path mtn has been taken over by a corporate giant, others like that their financially shakey mtn has been taken over by a corporate giant.

Plusses and minuses. Only thing I expect this year is a significant increase in F&B prices. You could still get a burger and a beer in the bar for $20 pre-tip last season. That's very reasonable for a ski area. I expect that to go up to $25.

Plusses for me are obviously Epic local. Stowe was home for many years, so I'm psyched to have that back in play affordably. I've already booked our February vacation there this year instead of the Mt Washington Valley. I also like that I'll have Sunapee available when conditions aren't worth the drive up north. It's a more interesting place to ski groomers than Crotched.

Concerns for Cat are the mentioned shortening of season length and eventually more snowmaking and grooming. The thing I love about Cat is they only make snow and groom about 25 of their 48 trails. I expect that number of manicured trails to go way up to around 40 eventually. That will suck. I'll forgive that if they cut some upper mountain glades. They have a massive amount of acreage between several upper mountain trails that could be gladed if they do battle with the USFS. They could double their official Glade acreage from 80 acres to 160. Hopefully this increased investment means a faster trail roll out early season. They are quite conservative of when they'll make snow. Except for opening Lynx up, they basically don't make snow unless there's at least a 24-36 hour window to do so.

The other thing I'm concerned with is a change in ski patrol culture like has happened at Stowe. It used to be at Stowe that they didn't really care when people ducked ropes. I'm told that is no longer the case and they suspend passes for offenders. Wildcat is even more liberal in that regard. They put ropes up mainly to keep the tourists out. Regulars who don't mind trashing their bases they largely leave alone. I hope that doesn't change.

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[abc]

If it changed for Stowe, it WILL change for the Cat!

 

[deadheadskier]

Would not consider a cannon pass again but my family will likely migrate to a combination of ragged and Ikon if they contract the season at wildcat. Ikon is a compelling option for those who value a long season in the east, just wish they had something unlimited in nh.

Curious why you would not consider Cannon again? I'd easily take Cannon over Ragged. I got bored at Ragged after two years being a passholder. Not enough bumps and the glades aren't open frequently enough.

IMO Cannon has the best terrain in New Hampshire and probably top five in New England. My top being Stowe, Smuggs, Sugarbush, Sugarloaf and Cannon. Next five would be MRG, Jay, Cat, Saddleback and Magic.

My preference for Cat over Cannon are

1. They groom far less of their terrain
2. I prefer big vertical off a TTB fast lift. Cannon doesn't really have that
3. Smaller crowds and better snow conditions than Cannon because of that
4. Season length

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[drjeff]

Alright, I take this back. At the end of the season, yes they would know exactly how much money they made (each season pass holder would have a per-visit $ amount available). I was thinking more in terms of the SEC quarterly reported earning and not having a final number of visits each early season skier actual was going to have.

Now here's a stat about passholder use, that was presented at Sunday River this past week at an industry conference/trade show. The President of the National Ski Areas Association, Kelly Pawlak, the former GM of Mount Snow before accepting the offer to become President of the NSAA, presented some regional pass usage data. Across ALL reported passholders nationally, the Northeast had the highest average of days used per season pass sold per year, and that number was 13 days!!!

I was surprised by that as I would of thought it would of been in the low 20's!!

Again, hard industry data like this just goes to show that many of us AZ'ers, who are so passionate about this sport, just aren't indicative of your "average" skier/rider!!

What really had me laughing, was when I asked my almost 16yr old daughter how many days she thought the average passholder in the East used their pass annually, and her answer, which is based on how many days she and many of her age cohort Mount Snow racer friends use their passes annually, was 40 days!! After she heard the actual number was 13, she said "Dad, we're just not normal, are we?" Lol!

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[MEtoVTSkier]

Again, hard industry data like this just goes to show that do many of us AZ'ers, who are so passionate about this sport, just aren't indicative of your "average" skier/rider!!

Not even close. And most here, and every other ski-related forum/board commonly refuse to accept that fact.

 

[MEtoVTSkier]

I also like that I'll have Sunapee available when conditions aren't worth the drive up north. It's a more interesting place to ski groomers than Crotched.

Interesting. I've not been to Sunapee in forever. I'll have to keep that in mind.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Now here's a stat about passholder use, that was presented at Sunday River this past week at an industry conference/trade show. The President of the National Ski Areas Association, Kelly Pawlak, the former GM of Mount Snow before accepting the offer to become President of the NSAA, presented some regional pass usage data. Across ALL reported passholders nationally, the Northeast had the highest average of days used per season pass sold per year, and that number was 13 days!!!

I was surprised by that as I would of thought it would of been in the low 20's!!

Ehhh..... does that include IKON & EPIC? Because if it does, perhaps the "real" number is in the low 20s.

At least in so much as what people typically think of as a skiing season pass. If it does inlude those 2 mega-passes, that figure of 13 is 100% being artificially brought down.

 

[drjeff]

Ehhh..... does that include IKON & EPIC? Because if it does, perhaps the "real" number is in the low 20s.

At least in so much as what people typically think of as a skiing season pass. If it does inlude those 2 mega-passes, that figure of 13 is 100% being artificially brought down.

Yup. That was the Nationwide average of all passes.

The northeast lead the way with 13 days per pass.

Now I'm sure there's a growing number of people who have 2 (or more) passes that play into those numbers.

However I think that there's likely a sizeable number of folks, often from areas of the country where either there's not "local" skiing that are starting to buy a pass (Epic or IKON) for their one and only ski week of the year that factor into it.

When you consider the hundreds of thousands of Epic passes alone that are sold annually now, if you get say 25000 folks who live South of the Mason-Dixon line who take their once a year week to Colorado or Utah and only log 5 or 6 days for the entire season of their Epic pass, that's going to have a tangible effect on that annual average usage number for sure

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[BenedictGomez]

if you get say 25000 folks who live South of the Mason-Dixon line who take their once a year week to Colorado or Utah and only log 5 or 6 days for the entire season of their Epic pass, that's going to have a tangible effect on that annual average usage number for sure

It's going to be way, way, way > 25,000.


Vail sells over 900k "passes" by itself, plus about 100k of those are those military passes, which are probably barely even used. Then you have IKON which is over 250k penetration & ramping. So that "13 average days" thing IMO is pretty much an irrelevant stat now, because the data used to calculate it has essentially been contaminated to the point where the output is no longer representative of what people think it means.

 

[catskillman]

I'm also having a hard time understanding how a company like Vail could determine if they make money or loose money in the few early or late season weeks of operation. With the majority of early/late season skiers being on season passes, I can't figure out how a company would determine what percentage of the season pass price be allocated as income during those weeks.

Passes are scanned - they know everything.
They write a query and voila.
Technoligy is a wondderful thing

 

[BenedictGomez]

Passes are scanned - they know everything.
They write a query and voila.
Technoligy is a wondderful thing

Less than 24 hours after the PEAK Resorts acquisition announcement, I received an email from Vail that said, "new mountains in your area are now EPIC". They can do this because they have the home address & email address of everyone who's skied one of their resorts. I'm surprised you dont have to scan your EPIC pass at lunch so they know if you like Diet Coke or Hawaiian Punch.