Week of Jan 15th

[billski]

Now, to get you irrationally worked up, Noyes posted this taunt for next week.
Right or wrong, I'm leaving my skis in the car!

 

[gladerider]

i like?

 

[tarponhead]

i like?

I'm getting all these "pattern breaker" nuggets from here and there about this system moving through tonight and tomorrow.

Lets hope so...

 

[ScottySkis]

Maybe snow for our hills please

 

[watchoutbelow]

Doing the snow dance

 

[steamboat1]

Sounds good. I'll be up next week.

Hope the weekend warriors get a good dump going into this weekend. Sounds like they will.

 

[steamboat1]

Long range is shaping up nicely...:grin:

 

[ALLSKIING]

Long range is shaping up nicely...:grin:

yeah it really is! still need snow but looking very good!

 

[watchoutbelow]

yeah it really is! still need snow but looking very good!

I thought it was supposed to warm up again this week and maybe rain this coming weekend? Am I wrong? Hope so.

 

[steamboat1]

I thought it was supposed to warm up again this week and maybe rain this coming weekend? Am I wrong? Hope so.

unday, January 15, 2012
Wintry upcoming week but the end of the month looks distressing
Snow on the ground and sub-zero temps has finally put Vermont in the spirit of the season and we should continue with this theme through the upcoming week. A brutally cold arctic air mass has begun its descent into western and central Canada and will ultimately grip much of the northern third of the U.S. this week. The southward push of cold however will not occur without a fight and this sets the stage for a sharp temperature gradient that will set up between the 35th and 40th parallel (that's old school for latitude). This temperature gradient will help carve the pathway for what appears to be two pieces of Pacific energy capable of delivering powder to MRG.

The first weather system marks the advance of the large southward advance of aforementioned arctic air and it will arrive later Tuesday. Of course, we already have very cold air gripping the region and it will gradually loosen its hard grip ahead of the arrival of Tuesday's system. By midday Tuesday, temperatures will warm to within a few degrees of the freezing mark and it will be the thickening clouds that slows the warming. Precipitation will then start as a wintry mix before going to all snow Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The low pressure center responsible will track directly over northern Vermont thus placing the best snow accumulations over Quebec. MRG should in the end do OK with a few inches to show for itself by Wednesday when blustery and very cold weather should reemerge across the region.

A second system late Thursday into Friday will have plenty of cold air to work with but will be a bit moisture starved. We should be able to squeeze a few inches of fluff out of this before cold air is re-enforced for the last time before an uninvited pattern change begins to take root. Thankfully these changes will not have an adverse impact on the weekend of the 21st and 22nd which I would expect should still be a winner. Very cold air will still be in place on Friday along with a few inches of fresh snow and the northward push of milder air will be fueled by a weather system capable of delivering additional and potentially significant snows to interior New England Saturday. I will wait for the next update to provide a bit more clarity on that.

Beyond next weekend is when the big trouble begins. The big personality characteristic so far this winter has been a very tight and very powerful jet stream in the mid-latitude Pacific. Unfortunately we will see this reemerge again and in a very bad way as much of the energy will be focused on the Pacific Northwest and Canadian Rockies. This will allow for a strong upper ridge to develop across southeastern Canada and New England. It is the kind of feature that can produce both record warmth and rain both of which are probable between the 23rd and 27th of the month. With these changes still a week away there are still a few outs but its not worth holding our breath right now.
Posted by Joshua Fox at 11:55 AM 0 comments

 

[billski]

Too many words. I don't like the "few inches", "moisture starved" phrases, but I'll take it. I do like the "powder to MRG" sentiment.

I don't take projections 7 days out seriously, though it entertaining.

Brutally cold means uncrowded trails. I met a fellow Friday who prefers to ski in the rain. He says, there's nobody on the mountain. And the dude was 100% serious. :roll:

 

[watchoutbelow]

I really wish it would just stay cold. We really don't need another warm up.

 

[steamboat1]

LOL... I'll take it.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I don't take projections 7 days out seriously, though it entertaining.

Yeah, I'm much happier when the weather folks are happy about days 1-7.

Days 8-14 I dont mind so much when they're negative since the statistical probability of being "correct" seems to drop substantially with each additional day.

 

[Warp Daddy]

Titus today, Tremblant later this week for a couple of days

 

[billski]

Moderate snow in suburban-metropolitan-hemisphere. Action: fear and trembling on Saturday. Sunday - Snow in the backyard affliction implores millions to bog down major interstates to board and ski. Guess I'd better drive through the monster storm today to get a few good hours of skiing in.

 

[abc]

Moderate snow in suburban-metropolitan-hemisphere. Action: fear and trembling on Saturday. Sunday - Snow in the backyard affliction implores millions to bog down major interstates to board and ski. Guess I'd better drive through the monster storm today to get a few good hours of skiing in.

Millions? Only if you have a ski resort you want to sell!

Skiing is still largely a passtime. Powder chaser like on this forum are few.

 

[billski]

Powder chaser like on this forum are few.

What I mean is that old behavior that still rings true - If it ain't snowing in my backyard, there is no skiing! There are plenty of opportunistic day trippers, especially on Ski93 straight up from BOS.

 

[4aprice]

There are plenty of opportunistic day trippers, especially on Ski93 straight up from BOS.

Don't worry. Presidents week is not so far away. Once beyond those opportunistic day trippers will vanish. Bastardi still says we have yet to get to winters main course. March can be a beautiful month.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ