From Jessica Facebook forecaster
Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
Thank silicon Bob
This winter will be awesome for people
Low sunspots spots and several other reasons
The lake effect is flying and the Arctic front is approaching. Here is a look at current radar, from “Weather Tap”, along with frontal position and temperatures. The air behind the front is cold, very cold. Most of the Northeast, including near and along the coast will most likely deal with some snow-squalls associated with the front. Southern New Jersey with much of Maryland and Delaware might not see the squalls, but everyone else is a risk. With the squalls snow could fall hard for a short time leading to poor visibility and a quick dusting to an inch or two of snow. Winds will also be an issue today, blowing snow around ( for those of y’all that have snow) also making for reduced visibility. Those who like thunder-snow , you could hear some.
As for lake effect snow.
Right now, the lake snow is east of Lake Ontario across the Tug Hill into the western Adirondacks. The area around the Tug Hill into western Adirondacks should see 5 to 12 inches, perhaps a bit more in some localized areas. Once the Arctic front moves through the lake effect band will push south off the Tug Hill. Those southeast of Lake Ontario see 2-5 inches, Rome and Utica 1-5 inches, Syracuse generally 4-5 inches while Rochester sees around 2 inches. As for Lake Erie, those areas south of Buffalo, like the Chautauqua Ridge will see 5-10 inches. The Buffalo Metro 3-5 inches for today with additional snow tonight.
Next week and a little on the longer range.
I’ve been talking about the active pattern, and the potential for a winter storm around Christmas. Over the next few days we’re going to have another clipper to our north, and have a couple of shortwaves move ashore across southern California. The first looks to come ashore the 23rd or 24th, then it looks to move into the Plains. The 2nd and potentially bigger storm looks to move on to the West Coast day after Christmas. The first half of next week will see ridging in the Great Lakes and Northeast, so temperatures will be seasonal to a little above average. But we will have a Clipper to our north dragging in some colder air. This could be enough for a dusting to an inch or two across New York State into Pennsylvania and New England on Christmas. There will be a strong storm in the Southeast around Christmas, but that should stay to our south. A much bigger storm is possible between Christmas and New Year’s, but we will see.
The teleconnection signal going forward is saying the cold is coming. Of course the American and European models are dealing with feedback issues, showing opposite solutions. But based on the pattern I think we’re going to see the pattern flip as we get into January with the cold sticking around. But, from November 1st to now the overall temperature anomalies have been well below average across our region.