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Winter 2019/2020

ScottySkis

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Joined
Jan 16, 2011
Messages
11,901
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Location
Middletown NY
From Jessica Facebook forecaster
Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
https://www.facebook.com/254982781215764/posts/2502908346423185/
I
https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather/?tsid=0.3873143810869992&source=result

Thank silicon Bob
This winter will be awesome for people
Low sunspots spots and several other reasons

The lake effect is flying and the Arctic front is approaching. Here is a look at current radar, from “Weather Tap”, along with frontal position and temperatures. The air behind the front is cold, very cold. Most of the Northeast, including near and along the coast will most likely deal with some snow-squalls associated with the front. Southern New Jersey with much of Maryland and Delaware might not see the squalls, but everyone else is a risk. With the squalls snow could fall hard for a short time leading to poor visibility and a quick dusting to an inch or two of snow. Winds will also be an issue today, blowing snow around ( for those of y’all that have snow) also making for reduced visibility. Those who like thunder-snow , you could hear some.

As for lake effect snow.

Right now, the lake snow is east of Lake Ontario across the Tug Hill into the western Adirondacks. The area around the Tug Hill into western Adirondacks should see 5 to 12 inches, perhaps a bit more in some localized areas. Once the Arctic front moves through the lake effect band will push south off the Tug Hill. Those southeast of Lake Ontario see 2-5 inches, Rome and Utica 1-5 inches, Syracuse generally 4-5 inches while Rochester sees around 2 inches. As for Lake Erie, those areas south of Buffalo, like the Chautauqua Ridge will see 5-10 inches. The Buffalo Metro 3-5 inches for today with additional snow tonight.

Next week and a little on the longer range.

I’ve been talking about the active pattern, and the potential for a winter storm around Christmas. Over the next few days we’re going to have another clipper to our north, and have a couple of shortwaves move ashore across southern California. The first looks to come ashore the 23rd or 24th, then it looks to move into the Plains. The 2nd and potentially bigger storm looks to move on to the West Coast day after Christmas. The first half of next week will see ridging in the Great Lakes and Northeast, so temperatures will be seasonal to a little above average. But we will have a Clipper to our north dragging in some colder air. This could be enough for a dusting to an inch or two across New York State into Pennsylvania and New England on Christmas. There will be a strong storm in the Southeast around Christmas, but that should stay to our south. A much bigger storm is possible between Christmas and New Year’s, but we will see.

The teleconnection signal going forward is saying the cold is coming. Of course the American and European models are dealing with feedback issues, showing opposite solutions. But based on the pattern I think we’re going to see the pattern flip as we get into January with the cold sticking around. But, from November 1st to now the overall temperature anomalies have been well below average across our region.
 

Siliconebobsquarepants

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Lehigh County Pa.
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ScottySkis

Active member
Joined
Jan 16, 2011
Messages
11,901
Points
38
Location
Middletown NY
From Jessica Facebook forecaster
Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
https://www.facebook.com/254982781215764/posts/2502908346423185/
I
https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather/?tsid=0.3873143810869992&source=result

Thank silicon Bob
This winter will be awesome for people
Low sunspots spots and several other reasons

Well it certainly is cold. Looking at my weather station the air temperature is currently 4 degrees, brisk winds are making it feel well into the negative digits. The core of the cold is today into tomorrow morning. later tomorrow it will start to move out of here allowing for some warming. Temperatures look to moderate even more next week heading into Christmas. Temperatures will start to cool later Christmas Day.

The next chance for snow for the Northeast is going to be Christmas late morning/afternoon into Boxing Day; as a clipper system comes in over the Great Lakes dragging a weak cold front. How far the clipper comes south will depend on the strength of the ridge out west. Those with the best shot at seeing actual Christmas Snow will be in New York State and northern into Central New England. The system won't have a lot of moisture, but a couple of inches for some over New York State and New England is possible. It will take a Christmas miracle to get any snow into the Southern Tier of Pennsylvania and the Middle Atlantic.

About the warming for next week

I do think the core of the warmth will be to our west. But we’re going to warm with the dry stretch between now and Christmas. We’re going to lose some snow. At my house, I have more than enough snow on the ground to keep snow on the ground for Christmas. But others don’t have the snowpack parts of Northern New York State and New England have, so their snowpack is in jeopardy. I do think the models are overdoing the amount of warming next week. But upper 30s and 40s are still enough to reduce the snowpack. But any of y’all who haven’t done much Christmas shopping the weather for this weekend into Christmas Eve will be great for picking up all those gifts.
 

ScottySkis

Active member
Joined
Jan 16, 2011
Messages
11,901
Points
38
Location
Middletown NY
From Jessica Facebook forecaster
Who been very reliable since I started following her few years ago
https://www.facebook.com/254982781215764/posts/2502908346423185/
I
https://m.facebook.com/rebeccanortheastweather/?tsid=0.3873143810869992&source=result

Thank silicon Bob
This winter will be awesome for people
Low sunspots spots and several other reasons!.

Looking ahead, there are signs for absolutely a reversal in temperatures to come to the eastern and central CONUS during the first half of January. In about 10 days (January 5 - January 10) cold air looks to move out of Canada into the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. The question is will it be the start of a sustained colder than average temperature extent or just a temporary pause in this milder pattern we’re finding ourselves in.

The oscillations and teleconnections are fielding mixed signals right now. The SOI is very negative, we have that weak El Nino Modoki, and there is what appears to be an easterly QBO pattern trying to take hold. But the Polar Vortex is strong, meaning it will be hard to dislodge much in the way of cold into CONUS pattern. Also, the MJO could move back into a warm phase 4. There isn’t much in the way of cold over North America, but there is a lot of Cold on the other side of the Pole. If we can get higher heights into Alaska, we very well could tap into the colder air in Asia.

In recent years, it seems that the heart of winter runs Jan 15-Mar 15, sometimes even into April. We have seen many winters that saw warm Decembers that ended up being epic winters. I’m sticking to my guns on how winter 2019-2020 ends up, at least for now.
 

ScottySkis

Active member
Joined
Jan 16, 2011
Messages
11,901
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38
Location
Middletown NY
Another really great Forecaster.
Matt Facebook for skier and snowboard
https://www.facebook.com/groups/NortheastSkiology/permalink/454409208555831/

As of Sunday late morning January 26. 2525
Everything changes for better immediately not trying to jinx

"Forecasters get better some good news coming
From reliable forecasters
Its getting better for us ���������������������� soon
,BACK-END SNOW EVENT UPDATE #1
NWS offices have some numbers for us for 7 a.m. today through 7 a.m. on Tuesday, which is probably most of the event if not all of it. I've attached a loop showing the NWS cumulative snow forecasted during this time every 6 hours. I've also attached the NAM3K simulated radar covering this exact same period. Note that this does not include the 4" or so already on the ground at Gore and Whiteface, or the 2"-3" or so already on the ground in VT, and whatever fell in NH and ME last night and so you can add those on top.

The snow should start impacting VT somewhere between open and 11 a.m. in earnest according to the NAM3K, however NWS offices see this happening mostly late Sunday through Tuesday morning in VT. NWS Portland doesn't have totals in for after 7 p.m. on Monday yet, but it appears that things may pick up to some extent late Monday and Tuesday in N-NH and N-ME, though we're not talking about huge totals here.

Taking Sunday's snow into account, a storm total of 10"-15" is being forecasted for the Green Mountain Spine (north of I-89 by the definition I follow). Notable snow is also forecasted between Killington and MRG, but take note that this is going to be over 48 hours and that's why I'm using these loops showing how it falls over a two day period. Monday would be a good day for some soft turns and some refills in these areas, and Tuesday for full depth and more bumps. Sunday will probably be the better day at Whiteface and Gore, and in N-NH and N-ME due to more snow on the front end of this storm.

I've cut out the lake effect areas in the NWS map, but the forecast is for generally 4"-6" at W-NY resorts, and on the western side of the ADK's, resorts there have a 4"-6" range.

I believe the NWS Albany forecast for the Stratton, Mount Snow and Bromley area may be a little heavy, but certainly pos
"
 

ScottySkis

Active member
Joined
Jan 16, 2011
Messages
11,901
Points
38
Location
Middletown NY
Another really great Forecaster.
Matt Facebook for skier and snowboard
https://www.facebook.com/groups/NortheastSkiology/permalink/454409208555831/

BACKEND SNOW EVENT UPDATE #2: Through Tuesday
This is the second day of a 3-day back-end event. The event isn't that intense, but it does make up for it in longevity. The focus of this event is primarily on NY and VT, however snow should be pretty light during the ski day in VT before picking up after close and then snowing light to moderately until around close on Tuesday. A wind shift from west to north will help bring snow down further into VT and probably accumulate all the way down to Killington in small amounts, although the forecast still sees some snow primarily around Bromley in S-VT who actually picked up 6" so far in this storm while nearby Okemo, Magic, Stratton, Mount Snow have come up short due to being tucked in on a separate ridge. Jay Peak has been the winner with a report of 9" so far, but further down in N-VT 5"-7" have been reported by all.

Attached are the NWS storm totals to date, the NAM3K simulated radar from 8 a.m. this morning through 4 p.m. on Tuesday, and then the official NWS snowfall forecast through the end of this storm.

Certainly, N-VT is the place to be in this storm, and I expect mostly 12"-18" totals for this storm by the end of Tuesday in N-VT. The official forecast for these areas is generally 4"-6" with some smaller amounts for Bolton Valley and south. Tuesday should bring back fairly steady snow with accumulations there overnight to start the day. Glades should be pretty good, but still not perfect, though lower-traffic may temporarily help to hide the sharks, and the thicker initial snow/mix was very beneficial and helped open glades in many places. We're one storm cycle from optimal conditions. Note that Burke experiences weather differently from the Green Mountains, and has picked up 4" so far and should get 2"-4" more though the official forecast is for 1".

In NY Holiday Valley is looking pretty good with 4" so far and a forecast for about another 2"-3". Greek Peak however may end up the lake effect winner in this back-end with perfect winds off the lake for them and probably another 3"-4" on top of the 5" reported since Sunday. Snow Ridge, Titus, and McCauley should pick up some measurable snow also through Tuesday.

Unfortunately NH and ME are not going to receive notable benefits from the back-end. The primary storm is still to the north of these areas and moving like a snail, and by the time it is in position, it will be too dry and too far north to add much of anything to their slopes.



As of Sunday late morning January 26. 2525
Everything changes for better immediately not trying to jinx

"Forecasters get better some good news coming
From reliable forecasters
It
AZ people more good here. No jinxing
Guess what I did today
 
Last edited:

ScottySkis

Active member
Joined
Jan 16, 2011
Messages
11,901
Points
38
Location
Middletown NY
Another really great Forecaster.
Matt Facebook for skier and snowboard
https://www.facebook.com/groups/NortheastSkiology/permalink/454409208555831/

As of Sunday late morning January 26. 2525
Everything changes for better immediately not trying to jinx

"Forecasters get better some good news coming
From reliable forecasters
Its getting better for us ���������������������� soon
,another great reliable forecasters
."THU-FRI STORM UPDATE #6: In The Lull. Fine Tuning
I've attached the latest NWS snowfall forecast stitch. This actually misses some of last night's snowfall as that's old news. They haven't trimmed that much, but they should trim a bit more, however we will have a hard time telling from here on out as the first part of the storm disappears from this map. We're in a dry slot now primarily. That doesn't mean the mountains are dry, rather there's certainly some frozen stuff falling all around them, but valleys are emptying out and the precip won't start filling back in heavily until late today in NY and starting around midnight in New England. Not totally dry of course, and certainly not totally unslick. This is an improvement in what the models were seeing during the lull from just 24 hours ago.

NWS Portland and NWS Albany are more bullish on the snow than NWS Burlington. The disagreement is all about the rain/sleet line and where the precip remains mostly persistent along the northern boundary. Models see as much as 2.5" of water content, and to barely be breaking past 18" in snow is still conservative for some places, but pinpointing where that one exact area will set up will be difficult. Somewhere around Whiteface to Jay or some place in the Eastern Townships is where the bonus zone will probably be. This zone could shift NW or SE by 25 miles and absolutely demolish the forecast or break it, but the NWS has given some space here for breaking it. That's not to say that I expect significant amounts of snow south of where it is shown now, rather you just want to look for what actually happens in N-NY and VT as the Friday storm wraps through, and who stays snow somewhere near the Canadian border today.

Almost everyone gets at least 1" of some form of frozen precip out of this, so it will largely be fantastic even if it's not the blower pow of your dreams.
 
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