Winter Outlook 2010-2011

[KingM]

You bet I'll take that forecast.

 

[billski]

while I'm not a big fan of *uweather, I'll take any forecast that is optimistic. I printed out the graphics and plan to tout them at the next club meeting!

 

[4aprice]

You bet I'll take that forecast.

KingM:

Hoping to come visit you this year.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[Sky]

Well, according to this link, we are in for a snowier and colder start.

Let's hope the January haw prediction is off.

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2010/10/28/weather-experts-predict-winter-forecast/

 

[billski]

Well, according to this link, we are in for a snowier and colder start.

Let's hope the January haw prediction is off.

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2010/10/28/weather-experts-predict-winter-forecast/

I <heart> provacative headlines like that!
Weather Experts Predict Lots Of Snow This Winter


I'm stockpiling vacation days and keeping my weather page at the ready. Word to the wise: be flexible if you can! If you can't, call in sick.

I need a "Sorry, I'm snowbound and stuck at the resort." day...

 

[4aprice]

Sounds like a bookend winter to me. Good start, mild middle, good end. I'll take it if March pans out. The last 2 March's have been dissappointing so we're due. Remember +1 in January is still not warm.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[billski]

Roger Hill

I'm surprised nobody cited Roger Hill's prognosis for this winter.

Me thinks Rivercoil is perfectly positioned this winter!

 

[billski]

Herb Noyes is also out with his prognostication.

 

[riverc0il]

Me thinks Rivercoil is perfectly positioned this winter!

I am nearly perfectly positioned. I reposition myself where ever it snows the most. As long as it doesn't snow when I can't take a certain day off... I'll be there, where ever there is on any given day.

 

[hammer]

Hope he's wrong

Harvey Leonard is predicting a less severe winter for SNE:

http://www.thebostonchannel.com/weather/25802401/detail.html

He does "qualify" his forecast with the following statement:

However, the big wild card is whether or not frequent "Blocking Weather Patterns" develop in Canada, particularly in Eastern Canada. When this happens, cold High Pressure builds in Eastern Canada, keeping us colder and forcing the storm track farther to the south, often resulting in a colder and snowier winter for us. But, forecasting this well ahead of time has little skill, so this cannot be determined.

 

[billski]

I am nearly perfectly positioned. I reposition myself where ever it snows the most. As long as it doesn't snow when I can't take a certain day off... I'll be there, where ever there is on any given day.

you need to open a store branch in Waterbury, VT. There's this little thing about state boundaries that would have to be worked first.... :razz:

 

[JPTracker]

Jay Forecast - Above, possibly much above normal snowfall around 380 + inches

More complete forecast from Roger Hill over on the Jay site.

Monday, November 15th

Jack pot snows for Jay for the 2010-2011 winter season. In fact we might see much above normal snowfall this season as a whole, depending on the large scale flow of storms and colder air masses circulating in across the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes.

Please see the graphic, below.

This winter's major difference from last year is controlled by sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold phase known La Nina. Last winter, El Niño or the warm phase of sub tropical Pacific brought a tremendously actively storm track to the Mid Atlantic and Gulf coastal region. It was combined by an "off the charts negative phase" of the Arctic Oscillation, dumping dry modified arctic air south. Where the two tracks combined, giant Nor'easter's (Miller A storms) gave that region tremendous snowfalls (Snowmageddon etc.) while up across northern New England, we relied on the more usual smaller Alberta Clipper systems, and generally an unthawed snow pack. Snow preservation last year, was the name of the game.

Big differences this year.*

-The La Nina of this year is very strong (strongest in 20 years) and it will be one of the highest factors of this winter forcing the storm track and jet stream further north with a very active weather pattern. Other factors include Pacific Decadal Oscillation being in its colder phase while the Atlantic is opposite in its warm phase.
-The negative phase North Atlantic Oscillation which buckles the jet stream south of the Great Lakes and turns storm systems churning up along the Northeast coast has been in its optimal position well over a year, and shows no change, thus big storms that juice up with lots of Atlantic moisture may be in the offing now and then. These will undoubtedly be much more favorable for the northern Green Mountains than last year with their shift much more northerly.
-Alberta Clipper Systems will likely be the main engine however for the start of winter. Each system should produce quick moderate snowfalls for Jay, followed by Orographically lifted moisture aided by lake effect streamers off of Lakes Ontario and Huron Georgian Bay region. This is where Jay Peak excels due to geographical location "sitting pretty" downwind of the Great Lakes. I'm expecting numerous Clippers to enhance post storm Lake effect and unload on the slopes of Jay beginning after Thanksgiving and lasting into first part of January.
-Mid Winter Blues - A west to east zonal flow and storm track was likely to develop with milder Pacific air jamming east paralleling the U.S. Canadian border. Frequent warm ups along with icing events and some thawing due to rain were a pretty good likelihood. Jay Peak in its more northerly latitude will be well served as compared to many resorts further to the south in my opinion. Thus snow preservation at Jay will be a big winner.
-La Nina wanes late February into March. March was expected to react with new vigor as sub-tropical moisture entrainment combines with a fierce set of clippers with the odd Miller B Northeaster, thus snow packs will likely undergo an increase again lengthening the season with fresh powder dumps.
-The wild card in much of this winter is how negative the Arctic Oscillation will be. This negative version favors* the lack of a polar vortex and high latitude blocking forcing the jet stream further south than normal. A weakly negative version of the Arctic Oscillation was likely due to a number of different factors, but occasionally becoming stronger than usual. This should be enough keep cold air across Canada to refrigerate the locals of Jay Peak.*

Prediction – most snow east of the Rockies, great conditions early winter through the holidays. Mid winter blahs...some rain/ice, then very active end to the season (March).* Above, possibly much above normal snowfall around 380 + inches.

 

[billski]

Love to see something similar for the Mount Washington Valley.

 

[rocojerry]

More complete forecast from Roger Hill over on the Jay site.

Last night, I dreamt that I called in to Roger Hill's talk-radio weather station, to talk about his predictions for the winter, and his website which gave all the good info about long range forecasts -- over the conversation he realized he had some of his "top secret intel", aka the weather forecasts you pay for or subscribe to out on his public website... He realized the mistake and locked up all the good forecast info, and I ruined it for all of us looking for the best forecast information on the cheap --

luckily, it was just a bad dream, and he still gets paid by Jay. Thanks for posting

 

[riverc0il]

you need to open a store branch in Waterbury, VT. There's this little thing about state boundaries that would have to be worked first.... :razz:

Ironically, a few months after I accepted my current job, a position at Norwich University opened up. Worst decision I ever made in my life was not staying put for just a little while longer. Probably would have ended up living in the Waterbury area had it gone that way.