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The Official 2/6 - 2/7 Storm Discussion Thread

powderfreak

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This two day period of Tuesday and Wednesday was looking extremely bleak
even 36 hours ago with 40s and periods of heavy rain for both days. Now,
we've got a general 3-7" along the Green Mountain spine and eastward. New
Hampshire was really the winner here with more widespread 5-8" in central
New Hampshire. The situation for tomorrow is pretty tricky, though.

A cold front will slowly sag southward tonight and appears to set up
somewhere in the vicinity of Glens Falls-Rutland-Lebanon-North Conway...or
slightly north of that line. Snow will fall north of that area with a
possible mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain in and around that line.
South of there, sleet, freezing rain and rain will be the rule for Wednesday.

Precipitation will come in two waves, a heavy burst of snow should drop an
initial 2-5" late Wednesday morning before tapering off during the
afternoon. Snow will then redevelop Wednesday evening with an additional
2-3" on Wednesday night. Total 24hr accumulations by 7am Thursday will be
4-8" at the ski resorts from SB/MRG northward. South of there, it will get
cold enough to snow on Wednesday night with 2-4" from Killington to Mt. Snow
for Thursday morning. Here in the Champlain Valley, I'm expecting 3-6" of
total snowfall by Thursday morning.

This snowfall will bring two-day totals to near a foot in many spots and I
suspect the SB-Jay corridor total is somewhere around 10-14". Of course,
its warmed up a little bit with scattered rain showers this afternoon, but
this denser snow will cover up the ice nicely while building the base.

Another decent snow producer looks pegged for Saturday night and Sunday as a
clipper dives into the Ohio Valley and redevelops off the New England coast.
Models want to stall this in the Maritimes and if the last three runs of
the GFS are near-correct, we could have a decent widespread clipper snow
event transition to a significant upslope snowstorm late Sunday into Monday.
The overall synoptic features are falling into place for snow to fall from
Saturday night into Monday in the mountains with potentially heavy
accumulations. Stay Tuned.

-Scott
 

Greg

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Total 24hr accumulations by 7am Thursday will be
4-8" at the ski resorts from SB/MRG northward. South of there, it will get
cold enough to snow on Wednesday night with 2-4" from Killington to Mt. Snow
for Thursday morning. Here in the Champlain Valley, I'm expecting 3-6" of
total snowfall by Thursday morning.

This snowfall will bring two-day totals to near a foot in many spots and I
suspect the SB-Jay corridor total is somewhere around 10-14". Of course,
its warmed up a little bit with scattered rain showers this afternoon, but
this denser snow will cover up the ice nicely while building the base.

You've made my day.
 

powderfreak

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You've made my day.

My mood regarding the next week has done a 180. I was pretty down about the weekend conditions up here as I have family visiting Thursday night through Sunday; we'll be at Stowe on Friday and Saturday. I was expecting an ugly situation but with a net foot expected by Thursday morning...maybe some snow showers Friday...and then I'm pretty excited about the situation on the GFS and Canadian progs for significant mountain snowfall later in the weekend.

I think we might be turning it around here...

-Scott
 

Greg

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powderfreak

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Sweet! This is probably pretty academic for you Scott, but this is a neat site that charts out the precip and type based on various models:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.php?region=VT&stn=KMPV&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec

That's for the Barre area and the GFS and indicates a liquid equivalent of 1.5"+ of mostly snow between now and Friday. :snow: More for the weekend!

Greg...the coolwx site is great for model data. I've been using it all morning and usually get quite a bit of information off it. Its also got great temperature profiles and analysis that makes it easy to visualize what's going on in the atmosphere. The Temperature (Lower) option is great to see what the mountain will be experiencing as our summit levels are usually near between the 875mb-850mb level. Its easy to gage temps based on that.

Great site and I'd recommend it to anyone interested in this type of stuff.

-Scott
 

lerops

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powderfreak,

what's the source of this report? just asking so I could bookmark it. many weather reports don't specifically mention ski areas, so this look good.
 

Greg

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powderfreak,

what's the source of this report? just asking so I could bookmark it. many weather reports don't specifically mention ski areas, so this look good.

Scott typically posts his own reports based on model data and experience with trends on how things usually develop at and around various NNE ski areas. So I guess I'm saying bookmark this forum... ;)
 

WJenness

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This two day period of Tuesday and Wednesday was looking extremely bleak
even 36 hours ago with 40s and periods of heavy rain for both days. Now,
we've got a general 3-7" along the Green Mountain spine and eastward. New
Hampshire was really the winner here with more widespread 5-8" in central
New Hampshire. The situation for tomorrow is pretty tricky, though.

A cold front will slowly sag southward tonight and appears to set up
somewhere in the vicinity of Glens Falls-Rutland-Lebanon-North Conway...or
slightly north of that line. Snow will fall north of that area with a
possible mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain in and around that line.
South of there, sleet, freezing rain and rain will be the rule for Wednesday.

Precipitation will come in two waves, a heavy burst of snow should drop an
initial 2-5" late Wednesday morning before tapering off during the
afternoon. Snow will then redevelop Wednesday evening with an additional
2-3" on Wednesday night. Total 24hr accumulations by 7am Thursday will be
4-8" at the ski resorts from SB/MRG northward. South of there, it will get
cold enough to snow on Wednesday night with 2-4" from Killington to Mt. Snow
for Thursday morning. Here in the Champlain Valley, I'm expecting 3-6" of
total snowfall by Thursday morning.

This snowfall will bring two-day totals to near a foot in many spots and I
suspect the SB-Jay corridor total is somewhere around 10-14". Of course,
its warmed up a little bit with scattered rain showers this afternoon, but
this denser snow will cover up the ice nicely while building the base.

Another decent snow producer looks pegged for Saturday night and Sunday as a
clipper dives into the Ohio Valley and redevelops off the New England coast.
Models want to stall this in the Maritimes and if the last three runs of
the GFS are near-correct, we could have a decent widespread clipper snow
event transition to a significant upslope snowstorm late Sunday into Monday.
The overall synoptic features are falling into place for snow to fall from
Saturday night into Monday in the mountains with potentially heavy
accumulations. Stay Tuned.

-Scott

If I can bug you... How does the snow / sleet / NCP line look for Lincoln, NH (Loon specifically). Girlfriend and I are going there on Saturday, and I'm wondering if I should make sure my edges are nice and sharp...

-w
 

powderfreak

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If I can bug you... How does the snow / sleet / NCP line look for Lincoln, NH (Loon specifically). Girlfriend and I are going there on Saturday, and I'm wondering if I should make sure my edges are nice and sharp...

-w

I'd imagine Loon was close to the bullseye with this morning's snow in NH. I think they see snow possibly mixed with sleet at times tomorrow before changing to all snow. I'd include them in the 4-8" group. Should be a good weekend in a lot of central/northern areas.
 

WJenness

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I'd imagine Loon was close to the bullseye with this morning's snow in NH. I think they see snow possibly mixed with sleet at times tomorrow before changing to all snow. I'd include them in the 4-8" group. Should be a good weekend in a lot of central/northern areas.

In short...

w00t.

Thank you.

They were reporting 6.5" of fresh this morning...

-w
 

lerops

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Scott typically posts his own reports based on model data and experience with trends on how things usually develop at and around various NNE ski areas. So I guess I'm saying bookmark this forum... ;)
Thanks, much better then!

Scott, thanks for the report.
 

Johnskiismore

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Loon today had a healthy six inches of snow from last night. When I got up this morning I was really expecting 1-3 inches, what a surprise! Now, at about noon it did start to rain lighly, but I mean lightly, for most of the afternoon it was hardly noticable. North Peak was socked in some fog, but today was a lot of fun to be out!

I'll do a few runs before work tomorrow!
 

riverc0il

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I couldn't believe what happened outside when I woke up. A bomb hit the area that no one was expecting. Several inches of snow before the change over, perhaps five inches total here in Ashland, then the mix, with a bit of rain. No one expected it. University closed all day, lots of kids at home from the schools. Streets were a mess this morning. Sweet!!!

Thanks for the update, powderfreak. Keep us posted on the potential for Monday. I got three weeks of vacation time to burn and this Monday might start my mid-week skiing in earnest for this season. Couple of inches probably won't be worth it, but if we are going to get 8"+ of powder going into Monday, work can certainly wait for Tuesday.
 

Greg

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Winter Weather Advisory: Northern Vermont

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
434 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT..

.A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL BRING A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY. THE MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER
AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

VTZ003-004-006>008-016-017-061015-
/O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0004.080206T1000Z-080207T1000Z/
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...
STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...
UNDERHILL
434 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM
EST THURSDAY...


HE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY. A MIX OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SNOW CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6
INCHES IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

:snow:
 

davidhowland14

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:D :D :D :D Ragged opened Ravine trails today. I'd imagine, with the danbury forecast for the next 10 days (snow almost every day), if they get spear open, that mountain will kick ass when I get up there. This winter is setting up to be an excellent one.
 

danny p

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man, weather can change at the drop of a dime. weather forecast for this week comletely sucked 3 days ago and now its snow in the forecast for the next 7 days @ K. totally stoked!
 

KingM

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School was canceled yesterday and several more inches to shovel this morning. Wow, how did they miss this so badly? At one point it looked like a disaster. Here is what the weather forecast is:

# Today: Periods of snow. Some mixed winter precipitation possible. High 31F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected.
# Tonight: Snow likely. Some sleet may mix in. Low 22F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Snow accumulating 4 to 6 inches.
# Tomorrow: Cloudy with snow. High 26F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70%. Snow accumulating 2 to 4 inches.
# Tomorrow night: Intermittent snow showers, especially early. Low 16F. Winds light and variable. Chance of snow 40%.
# Friday: A few snow showers. Highs in the low 30s and lows in the low 20s.
# Saturday: Snow showers possible. Highs in the low 30s and lows in the low 20s.
 
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