The Official 12/16 - 12/17 Storm Discussion Thread

[awf170]

From Joshua Fox at MRG...

The jet stream will form a nice confluence area over the Canadian Maritimes providing interior New England with a chilly day Saturday including high temperatures which struggle to get past 10 on the mountain although the winds will be relatively calm. This confluence area is a key ingredient for what is to follow on Sunday as a major weather system approaches from the southwest. It is rather incredible actually to look at the upper air and surface maps and see so many things which are strikingly similar to Valentines Day 2007, a day which probably should be memorialized at MRG. In truth, it is dangerous for a prognosticator to make such analogies 4 days from the event and some key details are likely to change over the course of the next few days. With that said, there is very good agreement concerning a big noreaster this weekend, one which will provide the coast with a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and ice and one which will deal interior New England and much of northern New York a sizable snow event (and wind) or one that can be measured in feet. I don't want to get carried away here because it is early and hype as a tendency to fizzle. Another update in a day or two can probably zoom in on the details a little closer and we can go to work from there.

Seeing that I'm going to be at MRG Sunday and Monday I'm getting just a little bit excited.

 

[JD]

I purchased some XC / BC Skis last night .. could this be a sign?

What skis did you get?

 

[ajl50]

So I just looked at the newest models and I'm worried were going to get another sleet event.
The latest models I saw has the primary low tracking all the way up in to western pa before the secondary coastal low takes over. This makes me think a great deal of warm air is going to make it all the way up to at least the catskills. Scott- tell me I don't know what I'm talking about.

 

[Zand]

Looks like a midnight start Saturday night with mainly snow except for a few hours of frozen precip around noon Sunday. Looks like plenty of moisture to go around with this one.

 

[nelsapbm]

Just heard an early prediction of 1.5 feet for Burlington. We'll see when it gets closer. The Pats game should be a fun one!

 

[drjeff]

The Pats game should be a fun one!

I have a feeling based on what the forcast is trending to over SE MASS that Gillette Stadium is going to resemble a giant Slurpee! I'm just thinking of wrapping myself ina giant sheet of Gore-tex for sitting in the stands for this one

 

[Vortex]

I don't go the the games once the ski season stats. Fair weather fan. I'll pop into a bar with my ski boots and watch some of the game. Have fun getting in and out of that place in a storm. Leave know and park.

 

[ajl50]

Pats don't want blizzard conditions. They want to play in a dome with no weather. Their pass game is negatively affected by adverse weathe conditions. Didn't you all watch that Baltimore game? Their defense is also negatively affected by weather. The pats defense is designed to shut the run down EARLY while their o builds a lead. Then they play a two deep shell, drop into coverage and give you yards until the red zone where their larger slower linbackers have less ground to cover and become more effective. If there is bad weather and the other team just punds the ball then those slower backers can't drop into coverage and get worn out.
SOOOOOO if you want pats to win 70-3 hope this storm comes later.
IF you want the Pats to win 28-21 then hope for the full bore storm.

 

[drjeff]

I don't go the the games once the ski season stats. Fair weather fan. I'll pop into a bar with my ski boots and watch some of the game. Have fun getting in and out of that place in a storm. Leave know and park.

Normally this time of year I'm really tempted to give up my seat and be on the hill Sunday afternoons. This is year is something different. This Pats team is a special one and I want to savor eavery last minute since I know one day in the not to distant future, they'll be back to a 5 and 11 team or worse as they were when I was going to their games in the early 90's

 

[WJenness]

I don't go the the games once the ski season stats. Fair weather fan. I'll pop into a bar with my ski boots and watch some of the game. Have fun getting in and out of that place in a storm. Leave know and park.

I'm so happy that this week and next week have been moved to 4PM... i can ski in the mornings and early afternoon and then settle in and watch the game... I like.

-w

 

[hammer]

I'm waiting on the latest forecasts...so far it looks like mixed precip through southern and central NE. :-x

Hope that changes...

 

[KingM]

Go north, young man. To quote the Sugarbush web site: "The snow just keeps piling up. Plan your weekend accordingly."

 

[billski]

clearing the calendar

Go north, young man. To quote the Sugarbush web site: "The snow just keeps piling up. Plan your weekend accordingly."

agreed. Thursday was south, Sunday is north. I'm considering waiting to pow day until tuesday if it's wicked windy on monday.

 

[ajl50]

Whose ready for a sleet party?

Every model run brings the warm layers of air further and further north!
BOOOOO!

 

[billski]

All the more reason to get out NOW!

Whose ready for a sleet party?

Every model run brings the warm layers of air further and further north!
BOOOOO!

I was just reading Scott's (powderfreak) missives from Friday, he is resigned to that as well. We can only hope the higher altitudes miss most of it. It's not looking good for mid to southern New England/NY.

On a related note, Scott is prognosticating that we ARE going to have a substantial warm up that will last a significant number of weeks.uke:
All the more reason to get out NOW!

 

[wa-loaf]

Whose ready for a sleet party?

Every model run brings the warm layers of air further and further north!
BOOOOO!

Last I heard around here was 6 inches of snow with an inch + of ice. If that's really the case, it's gonna be a disaster around here. :-( I can handle as much snow they can throw at me, but ice is just not fun for anyone.

 

[hammer]

Now I'm really kicking myself for not getting out yesterday...:-(

Guess we'll have to see how far north the sleet/ice gets.

 

[billski]

here kitty, kitty....

Last I heard around here was 6 inches of snow with an inch + of ice. If that's really the case, it's gonna be a disaster around here. :-( I can handle as much snow they can throw at me, but ice is just not fun for anyone.

If you told me it was ice ontop of hardpack, I'd have issues. However, if it's ice on top of the new snow, different issue, also vice-versa.

If ice cream shops can have mix-ins, so can we. The sno-kittys should be able to make short order of it. Do you wan M&M's or Reeese's pieces?:razz: It may mess up the woods skiing however.

I usually decide where to go after a rain event based on how the resort deals with it slopeside.

 

[billski]

Now I'm really kicking myself for not getting out yesterday...:-(

Guess we'll have to see how far north the sleet/ice gets.

I am issuing you a hall pass. You may be excused. Now git!

 

[ajl50]

I was just reading Scott's (powderfreak) missives from Friday, he is resigned to that as well. We can only hope the higher altitudes miss most of it. It's not looking good for mid to southern New England/NY.

On a related note, Scott is prognosticating that we ARE going to have a substantial warm up that will last a significant number of weeks.uke:
All the more reason to get out NOW!

Where is the powderfreak report from friday?