Snow Sports enthusiasts unemployment...

[riverc0il]

My gut tells me that's not the case though. My amateur observation is that season pass sales were already committed last year. This year it's more discretionary, and it will drop.

I don't hear any resorts squawking about pass sales being up this year. Last year, passes were committed to before the economy tanked. I also know quite a few more laid off people, who have been on the street for a long time, burning up their savings. People that are employed are working longer hours to preserve their worth to the company, to battle for every sale. (It was only businesses like GSS that are near recession-proof). No raises, expenses continuing to rise. Boomers with kids in college are being squeezed, something has to give. Interesting to see a lot more of these pre-purchase tickets, kind of a middle ground between a full season pass and a day ticket.

Plus, going skiing costs more than just buying a ticket or pass. IMHO, I suspect it's not going to be a good financial year this season, but what do I know???

Great analysis, billski. Last year, we saw one of our own (Geoff) take advantage of a not having a job by doing a lot of skiing. That type of thing may not happen as much this year as people continue to not be able to find work and run out of savings and really begin tightening up the belt.

The jobless rate just hit double digits and, as I recall, that number does not count people who have stopped looking, given up, settled into early retirement with a smaller financial package than they wanted, and people that have fallen off unemployment with having found a job. My company just released hours budgets for the rest of our fiscal year to come in at budget and more hours cuts are happening. The businesses are still a ways off from adding jobs and until that happens, ski areas are likely to feel the pinch as well.

That said, I doubt that ski areas are going to be hurting as much as most businesses. The east will continue to see gains from local vacations instead of flying west vacations (especially with add on costs from airlines rising). And skiing is something that even casual and occasional skiers and riders are passionate about doing.

Bring on the deals, is what I say. I think I picked a good year to do without a season pass (not for financial reasons though, lol).

 

[Glenn]

I agree that this year will be a bit more telling than the last. Last year, poop hit the fan in Septmeber. As mentioned, many people had already made winter plans (vaca or season passes). This season, we've had an entire year to experience things. At least my 401k is going up as of late.

 

[SIKSKIER]

One of these years I'm going to have to make an appointment with Dr.Winteroff.

 

[Geoff]

Last year, we saw one of our own (Geoff) take advantage of a not having a job by doing a lot of skiing. That type of thing may not happen as much this year as people continue to not be able to find work and run out of savings and really begin tightening up the belt.

I'm in an atypical circumstance. I'm single. I was renting a waterfront house with a boat dock in Portsmouth, NH. I own my Killington place outright. I had no debt and a pretty good chuck of cash in the bank. I could actually live off my unemployment check for the 14 1/2 months I was out of work. The only time I touched savings was to pay my property taxes and my interest income was bigger than my tax bill. I also completely lucked out on health insurance. I was paid through the end of 2008. When I went on COBRA on Jan 1, 2009, the federal government ended up picking up 2/3 of my health insurance. Life was great until the lifts stopped spinning last May 2nd. It took me 4 or 5 months of very diligent turning over rocks to land something good after most of a year of fairly half-hearted job searching where I was looking but not spending 40 hours per week actively networking as my full time task.

That said, I doubt that ski areas are going to be hurting as much as most businesses. The east will continue to see gains from local vacations instead of flying west vacations (especially with add on costs from airlines rising). And skiing is something that even casual and occasional skiers and riders are passionate about doing.

Bring on the deals, is what I say. I think I picked a good year to do without a season pass (not for financial reasons though, lol).

Killington announced their season pass sales were up 11%. My friends who work answering phones for lodging reservations say it's completely dead. I think skier visits will be as good as the weather and snow conditions allow them to be. If it's a good snow year, it will be flat or slightly up from last year where the skiing was great until the snow gods went on strike on March 1. I love spring skiing but the usual 60" of March snow tends to pull in more people than sunny spring-like days. I think that "other spending" for lodging, retail, and food will continue to be soft after being very soft last year with people booking at the last minute and booking lower end lodging than they usually would. At Killington last year, alcohol sales were actually up slightly. I expect that trend to continue.

 

[billski]

This must be the mean. It would be interested to see the Median and the Mode. As a 31 year old skier, taken my age group as a rough percentage of all general age groups, I usually feel in the minority at almost all ski areas.

Steve, I misstated the median. Let me re-state the 2006 age data for the US:
33 average
36 median
16 mode

However, these stats don't tell the whole story. You should feel in the minority. There are two peaks in the distribution - age 16 and age 44. It sags and is flat from 30 and 36 - don't you realize you are in your peak procreation period (statistically speaking of course!) and in career builder mode. After 36, there is a rebound, mostly of men up to age 44. It then declines for both genders as the bodies begin to disintegrate.

I suspect that the later peak have trended outward due to the baby boom, perhaps as late as 47 maybe. The age 30 peak probably not so much - biological clocks don't move so quickly.

 

[bigbog]

>The average snow sports participant is about 30 years old, has a college degree and household income exceeding $100,000 >annually.

Those statistics aren't particularly meaningful. The unemployment rate doubled last year when the economy tanked. Why should it be surprising that the unemployment rate among skiers & snowboarders also doubled?

You're giving this type of "News" too much legitimacy Geoff....
Anything data/information from Corporate America about its idea of the limits of the right type of family values makes me acknowledge the value of Malox Plus...

 

[riverc0il]

However, these stats don't tell the whole story. You should feel in the minority. There are two peaks in the distribution - age 16 and age 44. It sags and is flat from 30 and 36 - don't you realize you are in your peak procreation period (statistically speaking of course!) and in career builder mode.

Apparently, I must have missed the "go forth and procreate and build your career" memo. :lol: It is not just skiing that I am in the minority. Ever since leaving MA to move north, I have always felt in the middle of a generational sandwich with lots of folks a lot older and a lot of folks a lot younger but not many my age. Folks my age tend to move towards the cities instead of away from them, apparently. Probably due to that whole growing your career thing... whatever that is. :lol:

Interesting stats Bill, thanks for sharing.

 

[billski]

Apparently, I must have missed the "go forth and procreate and build your career" memo. :lol: It is not just skiing that I am in the minority. Ever since leaving MA to move north, I have always felt in the middle of a generational sandwich with lots of folks a lot older and a lot of folks a lot younger but not many my age. Folks my age tend to move towards the cities instead of away from them, apparently. Probably due to that whole growing your career thing... whatever that is. :lol:

Interesting stats Bill, thanks for sharing.

I've been doing ancestral history research as a hobby for a decade now and have concluded that demographics is a complex issue, subject to a multitude of variable and that trying to generalize a region or even certain towns is folly. In the 20th century, given ease of mobility, the most frequent reason for demographic change was economic. Falling far lower on the totem pole of reasons is lifestyle choice. Working in an academic setting, or any enterprise which dominates a region also distorts things quite a bit. Certainly one has more employment opportunities in metro areas and certainly not many singles are found in the countryside. If you want to find a lot of people your age, just go in any school, playground, or any facility that caters to kids. You'll find them - all coupled up and married or single parents, with no time left for themselves! Then again, as a single male, you'll find yourself castigated and shunned with suspicion. Too bad.