Nov 17 openings not looking so hot already....

snowman · Oct 17, 2007

Today thru the end of the month at the Loaf (the place that should have the best possible temps for snowmaking) there isn't even a night time freezing temperature in the forecast. One can more than safely say October skiing (that they insinuated they might try to do) at the loaf is out. I mentioned 3 to 4 weeks ago that the loaf would have to be making snow in the next couple weeks to try and get a few weekends in before Nov. 17. Hasn't happend. Where it's not even going to freeze at all thru Halloween, that means the ground will still be completely unfrozen come Nov 1. If the ground is unfrozen, that makes snowmaking twice as hard as blowing snow on unfrozen ground causes it to melt out from underneath. At this point, looking at this forecast, come Nov 1, it's going to have to be instantaneously sub 20F at night and not above freezing during the day for a solid 2 weeks for the loaf to even hit the Nov 17 opening. Please don't shoot the messenger, I'm just looking at the forecast here, and things don't look good. :-(

Greg · Oct 17, 2007

What forecast are you looking at?

Vortex · Oct 17, 2007

http://www.accuweather.com/forecast-15day.asp?partner=netweather&traveler=1&zipcode=04947&metric=0

aw oct 27th on is looking good i posted that on the loaf board.

marcski · Oct 17, 2007

I think its too far out to really tell for certain..but its awfully warm down here in Westchester County again. Out riding this morning at 7 in shorts.

GrilledSteezeSandwich · Oct 17, 2007

snowman said:
Today thru the end of the month at the Loaf (the place that should have the best possible temps for snowmaking) there isn't even a night time freezing temperature in the forecast. One can more than safely say October skiing (that they insinuated they might try to do) at the loaf is out. I mentioned 3 to 4 weeks ago that the loaf would have to be making snow in the next couple weeks to try and get a few weekends in before Nov. 17. Hasn't happend. Where it's not even going to freeze at all thru Halloween, that means the ground will still be completely unfrozen come Nov 1. If the ground is unfrozen, that makes snowmaking twice as hard as blowing snow on unfrozen ground causes it to melt out from underneath. At this point, looking at this forecast, come Nov 1, it's going to have to be instantaneously sub 20F at night and not above freezing during the day for a solid 2 weeks for the loaf to even hit the Nov 17 opening. Please don't shoot the messenger, I'm just looking at the forecast here, and things don't look good. :-(

Now on October 17th...we have no idea whether there will be skiing in the northeast by November 17th. Usually my first day of skiing for the season is a week after 75 degree temperatures..A ski area does not need 2 weeks of 20 degree temps..Places like Killington, Hunter, Belleayre, and Okemo can open a trail with just 36 hours of snowmaking temperatures. Frozen ground or not. Snowman not only are you an eternal pessimist but you don't know what you're talking about with regards to snowmaking..

snoseek · Oct 17, 2007

snowman said:
Today thru the end of the month at the Loaf (the place that should have the best possible temps for snowmaking) there isn't even a night time freezing temperature in the forecast. One can more than safely say October skiing (that they insinuated they might try to do) at the loaf is out. I mentioned 3 to 4 weeks ago that the loaf would have to be making snow in the next couple weeks to try and get a few weekends in before Nov. 17. Hasn't happend. Where it's not even going to freeze at all thru Halloween, that means the ground will still be completely unfrozen come Nov 1. If the ground is unfrozen, that makes snowmaking twice as hard as blowing snow on unfrozen ground causes it to melt out from underneath. At this point, looking at this forecast, come Nov 1, it's going to have to be instantaneously sub 20F at night and not above freezing during the day for a solid 2 weeks for the loaf to even hit the Nov 17 opening. Please don't shoot the messenger, I'm just looking at the forecast here, and things don't look good. :-(

sorry dude i'm not trying to argue for the sake of argument but- the lows drop well below freezing several nights...in kingfield. As your probably aware sugarloaf is a bit colder and two week forecast are a joke. Days are getting shorter, so those highs are for breif periods of time-not that i beleive in two week forecast. october opening-looks not so good...I'll agree with that. nov 17 will go off without a doubt in my mind, as will sunday river.

eastcoastpowderhound · Oct 17, 2007

marcski said:
I think its too far out to really tell for certain..but its awfully warm down here in Westchester County again. Out riding this morning at 7 in shorts.

your legs would have been purple this am in western maine...28 degrees this morning, Berlin NH was supposed to get down to 20.

Vortex · Oct 17, 2007

It was 32 in Nashua am today. Those end of the month temps are cold enough for snow making and they are base temps. I would not be surpised if that rain is snow when the cold front comes in.

It really depends on what happens in the short term after that. If we get the cold followed by a warm front they we wait. If We get a decent cold spell... we will get our 1st answers of what will take place this season. A bit of competion between Mt snow and SR and and Sl. We all win.

highpeaksdrifter · Oct 17, 2007

snowman said:
. Please don't shoot the messenger, I'm just looking at the forecast here, and things don't look good. :-(

It doesn't look especially good, but weather patterns can turn on a dime. I tend to believe the long term when cold and snow are in the forcast, when they're not I ignore it. Doesn't matter anyways, it will be what it will be.

KingM · Oct 17, 2007

I'm guessing we'll get some natural snow sometime in the next four weeks, now that the temps are more seasonable. That doesn't mean it will stick around, or that early snowmaking won't just melt and run off the mountain, but there's no way to tell what the weather will be a month from now.

GrilledSteezeSandwich · Oct 17, 2007

It looks like there could even be snowmaking temps in the Poconos and Catskills later this month based on the uber accurate accuweather 15 day forecast..lol...Whether my first day is November 10th, November 17th, or November 24th...I take great relief in knowing that we're so close..I've waited almost 6 months, what's an extra week or two..

Zand · Oct 17, 2007

Don't know what you're looking at... NOAA's forecast calls for below average temps and above average precip in the 8-14 day perod (October 25-31). In Maine, the average temp is already in the 30s... low to mid 30s by then so below average would be 20s. If this pans out, snowmaking could start at Sugarloaf pre-Halloween. Will they open by their projected date? Doubt it, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Sugarloaf and Sunday River were open by Veterans Day and, if it's cold enough, possibly even Mount Snow, Sugarbush, and some of the other colder VT and NH resorts.

GrilledSteezeSandwich · Oct 17, 2007

Zand said:
Don't know what you're looking at... NOAA's forecast calls for below average temps and above average precip in the 8-14 day perod (October 25-31). In Maine, the average temp is already in the 30s... low to mid 30s by then so below average would be 20s. If this pans out, snowmaking could start at Sugarloaf pre-Halloween. Will they open by their projected date? Doubt it, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Sugarloaf and Sunday River were open by Veterans Day and, if it's cold enough, possibly even Mount Snow, Sugarbush, and some of the other colder VT and NH resorts.

That's what I'm talking bout...and Belleayre usually opens early due to a mid mountain elevation of 2500 feet which is the lowest the early season terrain takes place. Holla..

ski_resort_observer · Oct 17, 2007

Around 32F, maybe lower, this morn at the Bush.

snowman · Oct 17, 2007

Bob R said:
http://www.accuweather.com/forecast-15day.asp?partner=netweather&traveler=1&zipcode=04947&metric=0

aw oct 27th on is looking good i posted that on the loaf board.

The Accuweather forecast looks a far sight better than the one I took a quick gander at. Weather.com is sying nothing below 34F as a LOW pretty much right thru the end of the month for the mountain. Needless to say, even if we take the BEST LOOKING forecast there isn't going to be any skiing in October, and if the warm weather continues on 1 more week after that the best we could possibly hope for is Upper mountain or MAYBE 1 trail at the Loaf. It's 29 days until opening day and not even a freezing temperature in sight for 10 days out. The loaf needs 20F or less to make snow of any usefull amount, and if the ground isn't frozen, even 20F won't get them very far. Days are ticking down folks, you do the math :-(

Greg · Oct 17, 2007

An accuweather or weather.com forecast for Kingfield is not at all representative of what the temps will be like at elevation on Sugarloaf. Also, as we approach winter, forecasts beyond 3-5 days (being generous) become more and more unreliable. I'm nowhere near concerned. It's almost silly to even discuss this at this early date. Move along, folks....nothing to see here.

snowman · Oct 17, 2007

Greg said:
An accuweather or weather.com forecast for Kingfield is not at all representative of what the temps will be like at elevation on Sugarloaf. Also, as we approach winter, forecasts beyond 3-5 days (being generous) become more and more unreliable. I'm nowhere near concerned. It's almost silly to even discuss this at this early date. Move along, folks....nothing to see here.

You're a meteorologist now? You know better than the people who are? Neat! The forecast I was looking at was also for the mountain, not Kingfield. I guess you ALSO know what I'm doing better than I do myself? You must be magic. We'll call you the Magic Man. Yes, Greg the Magic Man. Let it be known everyone, Greg is magic.

GrilledSteezeSandwich · Oct 17, 2007

snowman said:
The Accuweather forecast looks a far sight better than the one I took a quick gander at. Weather.com is sying nothing below 34F as a LOW pretty much right thru the end of the month for the mountain. Needless to say, even if we take the BEST LOOKING forecast there isn't going to be any skiing in October, and if the warm weather continues on 1 more week after that the best we could possibly hope for is Upper mountain or MAYBE 1 trail at the Loaf. It's 29 days until opening day and not even a freezing temperature in sight for 10 days out. The loaf needs 20F or less to make snow of any usefull amount, and if the ground isn't frozen, even 20F won't get them very far. Days are ticking down folks, you do the math :-(

Where do you get that 20 degree figure...manmade snow production depends on the wet bulb temperature..I've seen excellent snowmaking production during periods of upper 20s temperatures and low humidity..

Greg · Oct 17, 2007

snowman said:
You're a meteorologist now? You know better than the people who are? Neat! The forecast I was looking at was also for the mountain, not Kingfield. I guess you ALSO know what I'm doing better than I do myself? You must be magic. We'll call you the Magic Man. Yes, Greg the Magic Man. Let it be known everyone, Greg is magic.

Weather.com is providing elevation forecasts now? Ha ha ha. :lol: Newsflash, snowman: a weather.com forecast "for Sugarloaf" IS Kingfield.

GrilledSteezeSandwich · Oct 17, 2007

snowman said:
You're a meteorologist now? You know better than the people who are? Neat! The forecast I was looking at was also for the mountain, not Kingfield. I guess you ALSO know what I'm doing better than I do myself? You must be magic. We'll call you the Magic Man. Yes, Greg the Magic Man. Let it be known everyone, Greg is magic.

Please respect Greg..he knows his stuff...and the wetbulb temperature which is a combination of ambient temperature and humidity is what determines excellent snowmaking conditions. I've seen great snowmaking production with temperatures in the upper 20s with low humidity...Your 20 degree figure is a bunch of Hooey..since it rarely gets into the teens down here in PA but most of the resorts seem to manage getting open with marginal snowmaking temps..

Nov 17 openings not looking so hot already....

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