Tin
Active member
The local weather stations down here are predicting pm snow on Thursday into Friday and possibly mixing Friday. The term "big weather maker" has been throw around as well. Any ideas?
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12/31 - ??? Storm Discussion Thread
- Thread starter Tin
- Start date
riverc0il
New member
I got an idea!
:beer:
Not necessarily in that order. Me thinks a week away is still too far for specific weather discussion on who is getting what. But all the meteorological prognostication suggests it may be time to start partaking in a little preliminary excitement. We are going to need that storm after tomorrow.
:beer:
Not necessarily in that order.
Me thinks a week away is still too far for specific weather discussion on who is getting what. But all the meteorological prognostication suggests it may be time to start partaking in a little preliminary excitement. We are going to need that storm after tomorrow.
polski
New member
Could start after or at extend beyond New Year's day but the crazy people (and I mean that as a compliment!) at easternuswx.com are getting very excited about potential blockbuster next weekend. Josh Fox also throwing some broad hints out there. From what I understand this storm could stall (exactly where would be key) and it also could produce extremely strong winds.
But yes, still lots of times for things to go wrong. There also could be a decent little clipper Mon/Tue ... I'd like to opt for while waiting for the longer-term picture to clarify ...
But yes, still lots of times for things to go wrong. There also could be a decent little clipper Mon/Tue ... I'd like to opt for
while waiting for the longer-term picture to clarify ...TeleMac
New member
I'll drink to that!
Our igloo has washed away. We need something BIG to inspire us to make the 7-hour journey from Pennsylvania to the great white north.
Our igloo has washed away. We need something BIG to inspire us to make the 7-hour journey from Pennsylvania to the great white north.
Johnskiismore
New member
Snow storm would be nice! Looking out my windows to rain and fog.... on top of that I am really frigin sick! BLAH!!!!
News of snow is nice
News of snow is nice
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From the Albany HWO this morning:
WJenness
Active member
Any chance we could move this a day or two in either direction?
-w (Who is moving Thursday)
-w (Who is moving Thursday)
Roger Hill's report on Weathering Heights. Let's hope it's true
LONGER TERM - Active Storm Pattern kicks in New Years. An increasing probability of "the heaviest snowfall of this winter for New Years Day"
I hate to put the cart ahead of the horse....
We watched the news in VT last night before heading back to the flatlands. I think the station was out of Albany. The weather dude said this could be the biggest one of the seaon so far this year. We shall see.
St. Bear
New member
I hear ya on that. But VT didn't get anything last weekend. We skied at Mt. Snow on Sunday and in the morning, you could see the sun through the clouds. What a difference 100 or so miles makes.
livtoski
New member
Looks like a great start to the new year
here's the latest from NWS at Albany.
"a potentially active long term forecast shaping up...including the
new years Holiday. High pressure moves east of the area Wednesday night
into new years evening day...as southern stream energy lifts
northeastward along the middle Atlantic coast. Models having a
difficult time resolving development and track of potential coastal
low...as additional short wave energy feeds into the upper level
trough. Latest 00z guidance...including GFS/European model (ecmwf) and GFS ensembles
all indicating increasing chances for measurable precipitation starting new
years evening night lasting into at least New Years Day. So will
increase probability of precipitation to likely across much of the area.
The main concern and forecast challenge is how much quantitative precipitation forecast results from
this system. If...when and where phasing of northern stream energy
takes places will be critical for determining the duration of the
storm and quantitative precipitation forecast amounts...which could be significant. As of now the
GFS is most aggressive with tracking the low center just east of the
area...which would put our area in the heavy quantitative precipitation forecast swath on the
northwest side of the storm. Also...the GFS depicts phasing takes
place on New Years Day with the low becoming vertically stacked over
the weekend and sitting in place across central New England. The
European model (ecmwf) shows phasing...but not until Sat and takes place farther east
than the GFS is depicting...in the Gulf of Maine with the heaviest
quantitative precipitation forecast across northern New England. Both models showing significant quantitative precipitation forecast
but large location and timing differences exist. Again...a decent
chance of measurable precipitation although whether we receive significant
amounts is uncertain at this time.
Signals in ensemble data starting to reveal potential for
significant quantitative precipitation forecast...as 850mb u-comp wind anomaly of -3 to -4 South Dakota now
showing up across northern New England. Also...250mb u-comp wind
anomaly of between -2 to -3 South Dakota depicting storm becoming cut-off and
lingering for a while. So...where it snows there could be
significant accumulations. There is enough of a possibility to
mention potential for accumulating snow in the severe weather potential statement.
here's the latest from NWS at Albany.
"a potentially active long term forecast shaping up...including the
new years Holiday. High pressure moves east of the area Wednesday night
into new years evening day...as southern stream energy lifts
northeastward along the middle Atlantic coast. Models having a
difficult time resolving development and track of potential coastal
low...as additional short wave energy feeds into the upper level
trough. Latest 00z guidance...including GFS/European model (ecmwf) and GFS ensembles
all indicating increasing chances for measurable precipitation starting new
years evening night lasting into at least New Years Day. So will
increase probability of precipitation to likely across much of the area.
The main concern and forecast challenge is how much quantitative precipitation forecast results from
this system. If...when and where phasing of northern stream energy
takes places will be critical for determining the duration of the
storm and quantitative precipitation forecast amounts...which could be significant. As of now the
GFS is most aggressive with tracking the low center just east of the
area...which would put our area in the heavy quantitative precipitation forecast swath on the
northwest side of the storm. Also...the GFS depicts phasing takes
place on New Years Day with the low becoming vertically stacked over
the weekend and sitting in place across central New England. The
European model (ecmwf) shows phasing...but not until Sat and takes place farther east
than the GFS is depicting...in the Gulf of Maine with the heaviest
quantitative precipitation forecast across northern New England. Both models showing significant quantitative precipitation forecast
but large location and timing differences exist. Again...a decent
chance of measurable precipitation although whether we receive significant
amounts is uncertain at this time.
Signals in ensemble data starting to reveal potential for
significant quantitative precipitation forecast...as 850mb u-comp wind anomaly of -3 to -4 South Dakota now
showing up across northern New England. Also...250mb u-comp wind
anomaly of between -2 to -3 South Dakota depicting storm becoming cut-off and
lingering for a while. So...where it snows there could be
significant accumulations. There is enough of a possibility to
mention potential for accumulating snow in the severe weather potential statement.
WJenness
Active member
Nevermind.
Changed moving day to Wed.
Additionally, not having to move in the storm makes it more likely that I'll be able to ski this weekend! (More time to get the new place sorted)
LET IT SNOW!
-w
Johnskiismore
New member
Me thinks me like this
jaja111
New member
Buffalo NWS office cracks me up sometimes.... and drives me to drink on other times. Their AFD starts out for the moment with:
"IT IS CERTAINLY AN HONOR AND A CHALLENGE TO WORK IN ONE OF THE
MOST DIFFICULT MESOSCALE WINTER PLACES IN THE WORLD. WE JUST
UPDATED THE FORECAST ..........."
We are getting some good LES now and a New Years storm would be sweet - if it'd just inch a bit further west on those snow totals.....
"IT IS CERTAINLY AN HONOR AND A CHALLENGE TO WORK IN ONE OF THE
MOST DIFFICULT MESOSCALE WINTER PLACES IN THE WORLD. WE JUST
UPDATED THE FORECAST ..........."
We are getting some good LES now and a New Years storm would be sweet - if it'd just inch a bit further west on those snow totals.....
gmcunni
Active member
fingers crossed.. will be in NH for long weekend.. would love some big snow!
TeleMac
New member
Bush report 12/28
The last 90 minutes on the mountain today were as good as it gets, snow-wise, light, fluffy stuff, fresh tracks the whole way down, every time due to the wimpy skiers fleeing and the rate of snowfall…tomorrow, 815am, we’ll be at MRG waiting for the opening bell…I did hear though that it will be two degrees, so we’ll be drinking lots of hot chocolate throughout the day…
The last 90 minutes on the mountain today were as good as it gets, snow-wise, light, fluffy stuff, fresh tracks the whole way down, every time due to the wimpy skiers fleeing and the rate of snowfall…tomorrow, 815am, we’ll be at MRG waiting for the opening bell…I did hear though that it will be two degrees, so we’ll be drinking lots of hot chocolate throughout the day…
