12/31 - ??? Storm Discussion Thread

[Glenn]

I'm confused....I'll wait for the afternoon discussion on NWS.

AccuWeather went in the opposite direction... Yesterday, they had our place in VT getting 8 or so inches of snow...now they're saying 14.9" of snow.

And here's a map they posted:

 

[JD]

Accuweather is ussally confused too....

 

[drjeff]

I'm confused....I'll wait for the afternoon discussion on NWS.

AccuWeather went in the opposite direction... Yesterday, they had our place in VT getting 8 or so inches of snow...now they're saying 14.9" of snow.

And here's a map they posted:

Right now about the only thing folks are certain about is that they're uncertain about this storm! Seems pretty likely that the mountains of Maine are going to get a good dump of snow. Seems pretty likely that most if not all of the I-95 corridor from say the Maine/NH border on South will see nothing more than some nuissance slop. Beyond that though the models are still all over the place, but trending to a more easterly track which takes VT and likely most of the NH mountains of the the big accumulation ranges.

If this was one of those hurricane forcasting maps with the "cone of uncertainty" that estimates the potential track a few days out, the cone would still be very wide, but it does seem that the Western side of that cone is moving East whereas the eastern side is staying put

 

[jaywbigred]

I'm confused....I'll wait for the afternoon discussion on NWS.

AccuWeather went in the opposite direction... Yesterday, they had our place in VT getting 8 or so inches of snow...now they're saying 14.9" of snow.

And here's a map they posted:

6-12 would be just fine with me. Anything more is just a bonus.

 

[deadheadskier]

I'm confused....I'll wait for the afternoon discussion on NWS.

AccuWeather went in the opposite direction... Yesterday, they had our place in VT getting 8 or so inches of snow...now they're saying 14.9" of snow.

And here's a map they posted:

works for me if it pans out. Puts Ragged just at the edge of the 12-18 range.

 

[WinnChill]

I'm confused....I'll wait for the afternoon discussion on NWS.

AccuWeather went in the opposite direction... Yesterday, they had our place in VT getting 8 or so inches of snow...now they're saying 14.9" of snow.

And here's a map they posted:

Yes, a little confusing, but like DrJeff said, the storm is trending a bit east. I'm trending down a bit on accumulations...just a tad for NH but a bit more for VT. We're still expecting the wraparound northerly winds to keep the northern Greens somewhat in the picture (piling up gradually Sat thru Sunday) but the southern half will be more in the shadow of heavier terrain induces snows. Midday model runs coming out now with still an eastward trend...ugh.

 

[wa-loaf]

Looks like the best estimates for the big winners now are for Maine Lobsters and Powder as a New Years combo

Camden Snowbowl anyone?

 

[Glenn]

I'd honstly be happy with around a foot of snow. I'd be even more happy if I knew what it was going to do. LOL!

Seems like this may start later than orginally thought? We'll get stuff in the flatlands tomorrow...but it looks like this won't ramp up in So/VT until Friday/Saturday?

 

[RootDKJ]

Right now about the only thing folks are certain about is that they're uncertain about this storm!

Same as the last storm (the uncertainty part)

 

[RootDKJ]

Yes, a little confusing, but like DrJeff said, the storm is trending a bit east. I'm trending down a bit on accumulations...just a tad for NH but a bit more for VT. We're still expecting the wraparound northerly winds to keep the northern Greens somewhat in the picture (piling up gradually Sat thru Sunday) but the southern half will be more in the shadow of heavier terrain induces snows. Midday model runs coming out now with still an eastward trend...ugh.

Keep up the great work. Awesome that you're bringing us the skinny! :beer:

 

[pepperdawg]

<<just a tad for NH but a bit more for VT>>

heh heh heh

 

[polski]

Camden Snowbowl anyone?

I just came in here to say that's my jackpot call at this point.

One question I have for the wx experts: Seems all the storms earlier this season (and many last year?) tended to trend west on successive model runs. Does that not apply in this case because it's more complex than a garden-variety coastal low? Or might we see that happen as the southern shortwave gets sampled better, starting with tonight's runs?

 

[WinnChill]

The last setup we had (20th) was a massive closed upper low (slow and stagnant) over the Great Lakes trying to mix up with a Gulf of Mexico low....models were grappling with the phasing and the main influence off to our west. This weekend's storm has the upper trough diving in from the northwest in a slightly more progressive flow and pressing more out to sea. Downstream blocking over the northern Atlantic/Greenland/Canadian Maritimes plays a major role too. So may factors and always different everytime.

 

[drjeff]

So may factors and always different everytime.

Sooooooo true!!!! That's why I really enjoy being a bit of an "armchair amateur meterologist." The number of variables and complexities that arise about 99% of the time, especially with East coast winter storms is massive! It's like the ultimate theoretical problem solving challenge

 

[WinnChill]

It's like a Rubik's cube of weather. We may have one or two sides in place for a storm but the other 4 or 5 all different....make just one turn and it's the difference between historic snowfall or a dusting. Maddening I tell ya, maddening!

 

[Warp Daddy]

SOOOO cuttting to the chase , what's your BEST guess now ?

 

[petergriffen]

SOOOO cuttting to the chase , what's your BEST guess now ?

So I think I just read that the bulk might be pushing east. Someone tell me I'm wrong

 

[drjeff]

So I think I just read that the bulk might be pushing east. Someone tell me I'm wrong

Unfortunately for all of us that DON'T live in Maine, you're correct. If you're making turns at say Sunday River/Sugarloaf/Saddleback, etc this weekend, you'll likely be getting the deepest powder turns from this one

 

[jerseyrob]

Unfortunately for all of us that DON'T live in Maine, you're correct. If you're making turns at say Sunday River/Sugarloaf/Saddleback, etc this weekend, you'll likely be getting the deepest powder turns from this one

pics to follow..............

 

[salsgang]

pics to follow..............

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