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2/26 - 2/27 Speculation Thread

hammer

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Now I'm getting concerned...even Jay Peak is forecasting 1/2" of nair on Friday. How will that affect conditions at this point?
 

danny p

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if it stays light it will probably just put a crust on the new snow. Looks like a new storm might be hitting the area Sunday into Monday....hope so.
 

billski

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We just can't keep anything good around here, can we?

First, it was the Elvis decanter that spotty knocked down.
Then the dayglow felt painting of mountains wuz smashed,
Now its the snow.

We just can't keep anything good around here, can we?:angry:
 

billski

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Now I'm getting concerned...even Jay Peak is forecasting 1/2" of nair on Friday. How will that affect conditions at this point?


Gonna depend on the elevations. Keep you eye on the BTV recreation/mt. forecasts and look to see what Scotty says.
My baseline is that the summits are 5-10 degrees cooler than the valley. NWS forecasts are for the valley up to 2000 ft. If the NWS forecast for Jay is telling you 40 and rain (in the valley), well , then ca-ca! Not a promise, but the probs are high for rain at higher els.

Right now, I don't like the forecast for 42 at Morrisville. Morrisville is traditionally colder than some of the valleys.

Sometimes you end up with all pow on top and ice below.
As they say, stay tuned. I've got the same prob. I'm going to be at BV and Stowe.


Unless of course there is a temperature inversion, in which case, we all go drinking...
 
Last edited:

Greg

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Bullshit. But we're heading to Killington anyway, FRGR or not. I will be spending a fair amount of time at Snowshed with the kids anyway, but it would have been nice to head off and hit some of the good stuff for a few hours. And then maybe drive home into a winter storm Sunday afternoon? Greeeat... :roll:
 

billski

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Bullshit. But we're heading to Killington anyway, FRGR or not. I will be spending a fair amount of time at Snowshed with the kids anyway, but it would have been nice to head off and hit some of the good stuff for a few hours. And then maybe drive home into a winter storm Sunday afternoon? Greeeat... :roll:

I'm going too. I'm sure the groomers will make lemonade if necessary.
 

billski

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so let's play with the numbers. We can make them say anything we want.
NWS is calling for (@stowe)

Tonight: 60% chance of snow.
Thursday :40% chance of precip on thursday . So that means 60% chance of no rain.
Thurs nite: 20% chance of rain, OR 80% chance of no rain
Fri: 60% chance of snow

If the weather blows through here quickly, that would make it even better, since we're just getting a "short" burst of warmth.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain
 

SKidds

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Ahhh, billski..........such the wishful thinker that he blinded himself to the 90% Chance Rain (that's only 10% chance no rain) for FriDAY, and only saw the 60% chance of snow for Friday NIGHT. Poor soul......................

I'd love to make the numbers work as well. We were hoping to head to WF this weekend. Fortunately, we don't have any ressies yet, so we aren't committed, but it would have been nice to get away. We may still go. The kids and wife will likely be fine on the groomers, although I was hoping for more for myself. Perhaps at elevation the back end leaves more snow. Now who's the wishful thinker....................
 

billski

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Ahhh, billski..........such the wishful thinker that he blinded himself to the 90% Chance Rain (that's only 10% chance no rain) for FriDAY, and only saw the 60% chance of snow for Friday NIGHT. Poor soul......................

I'd love to make the numbers work as well. We were hoping to head to WF this weekend. Fortunately, we don't have any ressies yet, so we aren't committed, but it would have been nice to get away. We may still go. The kids and wife will likely be fine on the groomers, although I was hoping for more for myself. Perhaps at elevation the back end leaves more snow. Now who's the wishful thinker....................

ewwww. I missed that one. Delusion sets in quickly after a powder day 36 hours ago. ...

maybe I'll go to Minnesota...http://tinyurl.com/2qajks
 

drjeff

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Time to put some positive vibes/spin to this.:spin:

*If* we get a storm full of NCP, it will help set up all the fluff that fell in the last week and make a perfect, and DEEPER base for all of the classic March :snow: storms that will arrive very soon!
 

SKidds

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Nice thinking, although it would have been nice if it set up on Sunday night when March roars in like a Lion with the storm that may come up the coast.
 

yaraj

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take advantage of it when you can! I missed a week of awesome conditions after ruining my ankle playing soccer only for a 2 week!!!!! plus long thaw to set in that's still here, closing down pretty much all resorts from 100% to very little in that short period. Finally snowed up north again to day so things MAY be looking up. Fingers crossed for you guys you dodge it!
 

psyflyer

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At Burke it started to snow about 30 minutes ago and we are supposed to get a couple of inches. Hoping it will stay all snow, even though currently the temp is 29 on the mountain. Looks nice so far!
 

billski

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What will the primary impact of this be, loss of base or ice skiing for a weekend?

Neither Given the recent snowfall, no noticeable loss of base. Ungroomed will be crust on top, wet, drain, then it gets cold and refreezes. The groomers should be OK. I'm a bit bummed cause I wanted to get the kids into the woods, we don't have many opportunities to do that as a family.
Bill
 
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