-
Welcome to AlpineZone, the largest online community of skiers and snowboarders in the Northeast!
You may have to REGISTER before you can post. Registering is FREE, gets rid of the majority of advertisements, and lets you participate in giveaways and other AlpineZone events!
2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)
- Thread starter dlague
- Start date
dlague
Active member
catsup948
New member
Christmas Eve through the end of the week will be warm. Conditions and bases could be awfully spring like for a few days. Period starting end of next week could bring snow storm chances. 28th 29th have been on the models for a little while now. Think snow! Tomorrow is officially winter!
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
Some talk of a potential pattern switch and an energetic pattern beginning in the 7 - 10 day period. God willing.
Puck it
Well-known member
Boy do I need it too.
catsup948
New member
I'll believe it when I see it. Maybe this pattern can produce a little without -nao like last winter. Nothing huge but some 6 inch plus events region wide.
4aprice
Well-known member
I still think this winter will come through. A cold November (good start) followed by warm December (which still produced a significant storm) followed by a cold dry period in January, now an apparent small January thaw (I sometimes marvel at how people react to something that happens every year), to see a good second half (a rockin February and March) wouldn't surprise me at all. It's a play I've seen acted out many times during my 45 years skiing. Still got 3+ months to go in my season.
Alex
Lake Hopatcong, NJ
Rowsdower
Member
Possible system moving through next week (Tues/Wed).
Tin
Active member
Starts at rain/sleet and ends as. Euro and GFS have it Monday-Tues, looks like VT could miss it all. Strange track. The CMC as it too far off shore to do much. Hopefully it takes a track a littler further out but not too far.
hammer
Active member
I'm guessing the mets could put enough spin to disagree but so far the season isn't exactly living up to forecasts...:roll:
Rowsdower
Member
Temps have been decent for snowmaking but there's just been hardly any natural snowfall. When a system moves in the temps jump twenty degrees and its coming as a mix or rain.
dlague
Active member
Regarding the thaws - it is true people do react but I think the general fear is something like last year might happen. I just think people are looking for the goods in the woods and it is limited right now. With warm temps comes refreeze and hopefully no r--n. The only good thing about refreeze - makes for good spring conditions.
St. Bear
New member
Agreed. This season has been solidly mediocre, however it's trending downward quickly.
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
It's gone almost as poorly as humanly possible from a forecast standpoint.
For starters the season forecast was this was supposed to be a cold winter with above average snow. It's been decidedly average in temperature and the snow has been almost nonexistant.
Then there's the comically poor performance of the outmonth climate models, which have been worse than a monkey throwing darts. They called for a warm November, we got near record cold. They called for a cold December, we got a mild to (I think) slightly warm December. They called for a mid-end January BLOWTORCH, we now know that not only will that not happen, but it should be cold enough for snow.
So forgive me if I dont give a ratz azz about what the models are currently saying for February.
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
All that said, the GFS just received a major multi-million dollar upgrade, which now makes it even more powerful than the Euro and the Canuck (which was upgraded last year), and the 12z just out was its' first ever run.
Guess what?
It's predicting a decent storm next weekend. Cant make this stuff up folks. Here's the low on Friday night, kicks snow into all of ski country. If this upgrade still has the southeast bias of the old GFS, it would be even better. Nine days out though, so ingest your grains of salt with this one.
Guess what?
It's predicting a decent storm next weekend. Cant make this stuff up folks. Here's the low on Friday night, kicks snow into all of ski country. If this upgrade still has the southeast bias of the old GFS, it would be even better. Nine days out though, so ingest your grains of salt with this one.
St. Bear
New member
Sounds about right. I'm flying out to SLC that day.
dlague
Active member
Well the alternative might suck more - not skiing at all! We have not missed a beat and while we have had some days with tough conditions, I had fun with whatever was there. Two of the days had r--n in the early morning but we followed the forecast and skied later in the morning into the afternoon and had a great time.
It must suck to require perfect conditions, or bumps, or trees, or powder, or not skiing early or late season, or not cold, or too warm. Hell, I will take any day out there because I take what the mountain gives me! I am happy with that!
Similar threads
