2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

[dlague]

This Wednesday looks a little crappy!

 

[BenedictGomez]

This just illustrates where the above and below freezing temps might be. But the location of the low is about perfect for snow in northern NE - as long as it stays just off the coast and doesn't track up the CT valley.

Yes, those are, ummmm..... kindof the two very most important details.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Bastardi just posted the experimental version of the GFS and claims it matches his thoughts on this one. If so it displays a pretty good hit for north Jersey through the Cats.

 

[St. Bear]

Bastardi just posted the experimental version of the GFS and claims it matches his thoughts on this one. If so it displays a pretty good hit for north Jersey through the Cats.

Last storm moved North and West from the models. If that holds for this one, it might get ugly.

 

[catsup948]

Euro moved this storm southeast. We should check back on this one Thursday before we get to excited about it.

 

[mriceyman]

Way too far out to know where it will hit


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone

 

[BenedictGomez]

Last storm moved North and West from the models. If that holds for this one, it might get ugly.

It's still SO early, 5.5 days is an eternity and anything can happen, but at least for now it's shifted south. I havent seen the last EURO, but apparently that shifted a bit south too.

 

[Abubob]

Yes, those are, ummmm..... kindof the two very most important details.

Oh ... uh .. sorry ... I didn't realize I was being Obvious Man!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Wow, no pictures out yet, but hearing the EURO that's currently running in going south again.

Decent snowfall, but mid NJ would be about as far north as it gets........so......... lets hope it's wrong.

 

[BenedictGomez]

On the above, both Bastardi and DT think the current Euro run is flawed, which is good news for the Poconos, Catskills, and Berks.

Definitely starting to look like this is going to be a south of Vermont and New Hampshire storm though, unless the models flip and bring it back north.

 

[BenedictGomez]

JC just put out something trying to show the point of how fruitless it is to try to predict snowfall SIX days out by comparing what the current snowfall output would be on the Euro, GFS, and the Parallel GFS and then by blending them (the GFS says no storm at all). Posting it because I think it's pretty cool.

And it's so true, the main thing to be concerned with when you wake up each day is that the storm is still there from the overnight runs.

 

[mtsixspeed]

On the above, both Bastardi and DT think the current Euro run is flawed, which is good news for the Poconos, Catskills, and Berks.

Definitely starting to look like this is going to be a south of Vermont and New Hampshire storm though, unless the models flip and bring it back north.

Bring on the snow and the cold! As long as it stays cold so they don't lose whatever base is already up there, I'm happy. My first trip is scheduled for New Years in NH.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Bring on the snow and the cold! As long as it stays cold so they don't lose whatever base is already up there, I'm happy. My first trip is scheduled for New Years in NH.

The cold is here to stay. The long-range models calling for a very warm back-end of December have failed (again).

The storm for this weekend though? Falling apart. Needs to correct/come back within the next few model runs or it's done for.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Another 3" to 5" of backside snow possible tonight in VT & NH?

Ugh...momma don't let your babies grow up to work in finance. No n.VT trips and playing in the woods for me until year-end close.

Usually I dont care, but if the upcoming pattern holds, with what's already down.... this December is probably going to be one of the best in several decades.

 

[4aprice]

Another 3" to 5" of backside snow possible tonight in VT & NH?

Ugh...momma don't let your babies grow up to work in finance. No n.VT trips and playing in the woods for me until year-end close.

Usually I dont care, but if the upcoming pattern holds, with what's already down.... this December is probably going to be one of the best in several decades.

While I feel for you, unless we have an epic melt down, the woods should be in play when your busy season is done. The snow from that last storm was perfect for the base in the woods. Would love to see a storm like that every year.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[BenedictGomez]

While I feel for you, unless we have an epic melt down, the woods should be in play when your busy season is done. The snow from that last storm was perfect for the base in the woods. Would love to see a storm like that every year.

No doubt. A deep, heavy, wet, concrete snow to lay a foundation. Nothing can beat it for getting the woods open. Sadly, the Catskills on 01/10 + 01/11 will probably be my first days this season, but after that it's every weekend till' mid-April.

 

[Not Sure]

Another 3" to 5" of backside snow possible tonight in VT & NH?

Ugh...momma don't let your babies grow up to work in finance. No n.VT trips and playing in the woods for me until year-end close.

Usually I dont care, but if the upcoming pattern holds, with what's already down.... this December is probably going to be one of the best in several decades.

Opened my electric bill for December, this years average temp was 38f last year 39f?

 

[catsup948]

Christmas cutter? Seems likely, but this finally ushers in a pattern change that should benefit the whole northeast.

 

[catsup948]

Maybe not likely but possible. Something like last week could be too. That doesn't benefit me but mountains yes!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Opened my electric bill for December, this years average temp was 38f last year 39f?

For our area? Sounds about right, maybe a few degrees bit warmer than I would have guessed.