2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

[catsup948]

Nice event for Northern Vermont tomorrow into Wednesday. 3-6 with maybe more with some upslope, bolton up to Jay.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Starting to run out of time for the weekend.

GFS suppresses the snow no further north than the PA/NJ and NY border.

Canuck would at least bring a few inches into southern and central Vermont.

Euro (picture below) is best, but it doesn't look like anything to write home about unless this jogs north quite a bit.

Given the Pocono chain would pick up a good 7" - 8" on this run, I'm not giving up hope that this might come much further north, because as we all know, the Pocono Mountains must get screwed before any modeling solution is correct.

 

[BenedictGomez]

On the bright side,

1) For Nowcasting purposes, a quick check of radar and Sugarbush & Smuggler's Notch webcams seems to confirm it's dumping pretty good at the moment.


2) The 14 day is below-average cold for out through March 31st. Winter surviving until April is a guarantee this year.

 

[St. Bear]

Snowfall does not equal snow accumulation. Especially at this time of year in the Mid-Atlantic.

 

[Jcb890]

Will it stay cold enough for this event to stay all snow in Mid/Southern Vermont?

I'm seeing temps in the mid/high 30's on Friday and mid/low 40's on Saturday.

 

[chuckstah]

It was dumping out at Bolton today. Only a few inches, including a bit of sleet, but it was one of my best days. It skied great. (Until wind hold at 1:30).

 

[billski]

I'm hearing big winds through the day Wednesday. I'm going for broke. The Posse' leaves 02420 at 0545 hours Thursday. Destination Jay. Enough analyzing. Season's too short.

 

[wa-loaf]

Bent a wheel on a pothole so taking the snows off on Friday. Expect a dump.

 

[abc]

I'm hearing big winds through the day Wednesday. I'm going for broke. The Posse' leaves 02420 at 0545 hours Thursday. Destination Jay. Enough analyzing. Season's too short.

Well said!

I'm going for broke also. Taking Friday off. Going to Stowe on club appreciation day for the weekend, leaving flat land Thursday after work.

 

[j law]

Any updates on the timing and location of the snow?

A new baby and a crazy job prevented me from getting out this year and I finally have the green light for a day trip this weekend and I'm trying to figure out the best place to go from NYC and whether Sat or Sun is my best bet.

I am always willing to drive to Vermont... But could it be the case that the Pocono's might get the most from this event?

(Enter a Charlie Brown pic from BG here lining up a field goal)


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone

 

[BenedictGomez]

Any updates on the timing and location of the snow?

Here's the GFS prediction. Snowfall over by Saturday at 1am. These snow maps now might be overdone as they don't take into account the fact some of this might not stick given warm ground. That, and as a daytime storm it might have to fight the March sun angle.

Call it 3 or 4 inches I guess.

 

[Jcb890]

Most importantly - Any rain or all snow?

 

[catsup948]

GFS did come north more from 6z. Almost tries to phase some of the northern energy into the southern stream. It's getting pretty close to go time on this one though so major north shift is unlikely. Poconos could do well and West Virginia.

 

[j law]

Thanks BG! Now the question is where to go and which day?

I'd drive as far as Killington (from NYC) if it seemed worth it.

Anybody have thoughts on who will have the best combination of snow, weather and terrain open this weekend? I'm usually a tree skiing powder hound... but given the realities of the forecast, I'd take soft bumps in the catskills. Is there anywhere in the Pocono's worth hitting? I haven't been to Camleback since I was 8 years old and thought it was kind of boring back then!

Any thoughts?

 

[BenedictGomez]

Long-range 12z GFS shows some potential shots on goal with the models detecting some energy. Late March/early April could produce. GFS and Canuck both have their own versions of a relatively big storm in that timeframe, GFS' is all snow, Canuck's is a super-soaker.

 

[〽❄❅]

Thanks BG! Now the question is where to go and which day?

Is there anywhere in the Pocono's worth hitting? I haven't been to Camleback since I was 8 years old and thought it was kind of boring back then!

Any thoughts?

Friday is the day to hit it.

I'm not a fan of Camelback either but 31ºF high 100% chance of 3"-5", i may have to go. Same for Blue only with a high of 34ºF it doesn't seem like the best pick. NBC10's Glenn Hurricane just predicted 3"-6" in and around the LV.
Will likely decide very early Friday morning.

I much prefer ELK MT but they are only calling for 90% chance of 1"-3", pretty much the same for Hunter.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Wagons have been north so even if a partial phase occurs, the Pokes could cash in pretty well.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I'll be in n.VT, but for those going to the Pocono Mountains, here's some mappage....

 

[Rowsdower]

GFS came north a bit. Catskills might see more than initially predicted.

 

[j law]

I hope you're right... I'm thinking of trying Platekill based on comments from others in this forum that I've seen over the years.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZonemmmmmm