2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

[fbrissette]

Can we all just agree to stop feeding this troll?

I'm done arguing climate on this forum. Joe Bastardi just called three decades of cooling. There's nothing left to argue about.

 

[jack97]

I'm done arguing climate on this forum. Joe Bastardi just called three decades of cooling. There's nothing left to argue about.

Lighten up frisbee. JB's prediction will save me from turning into a vegan.

http://www.peta.org/issues/animals-used-for-food/global-warming/

 

[deadheadskier]

These statements come off as conspiracy theory nonsense. You may want to re-phrase them so they sound less delusional. Read them back to yourself objectively. This is the point where the anti-climate change crowd shows their hand. The concern isn't long term global health. It's short term profit.

I tend to agree

Also, Jack, is it necessary to refer to fbrisette as Frisbee? Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to signal you out. I know there's been mud flung back and forth from both sides on this issue. It's been pretty tame and it's fine; typical internet message board arguing. He probably doesn't care much, but it seems somewhat condescending to me and that can make some of your points get lost. The same would be true if every time he addressed you, he called you Joke.

It's quite clear how passionate you are in your stance against AGW. You might win more support, which I assume you want, by leaving the low brow name calling out in your arguments no?

 

[jack97]

Also, Jack, is it necessary to refer to fbrisette as Frisbee? Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to signal you out. I know there's been mud flung back and forth from both sides on this issue. It's been pretty tame and it's fine; typical internet message board arguing. He probably doesn't care much, but it seems somewhat condescending to me and that can make some of your points get lost. The same would be true if every time he addressed you, he called you Joke.

It's quite clear how passionate you are in your stance against AGW. You might win more support, which I assume you want, by leaving the low brow name calling out in your arguments no?

fbrisette used frisbee in his signature most likely as a joke for my typical typos and grammar mistakes. If he thought it was fun then why not.

In terms of winning support, I rather people look at the data and see what is happening around them than focus on the way I present it. Anyways, I may be go out for a while. I just wanted to put it out there, the natural causes to climate and we may see it soon, some established scientists have stated that it dwarfs our contributions.

 

[dlague]

 

[BenedictGomez]

I'm done arguing climate on this forum. Joe Bastardi just called three decades of cooling. There's nothing left to argue about.

Did he call it 15 years ago? If so, he's already halfway there.

If the glove don't fit, you must acquit; and if there is a pause, you have no cause.*

*I need to buy that bumper sticker

 

[MadMadWorld]

What'd I miss?

 

[fbrissette]

What'd I miss?

A thread was hijacked.
Winter 2015 may or may not be a good one.
You can call me frisbee.

 

[dlague]

A thread was hijacked.
Winter 2015 may or may not be a good one.
You can call me frisbee.

Was it ever - hijacked big time! That's par for this forum which makes it so fun.

 

[Puck it]

Was it ever - hijacked big time! That's par for this forum which makes it so fun.

Fanatics are on both sides.

 

[Cannonball]

If the glove don't fit, you must acquit; and if there is a pause, you have no cause.*

*I need to buy that bumper sticker

Nice, the Johnny Cochran approach!! The man sure could twist and confuse the obvious truth, I'll give you that.

 

[jack97]

Did he call it 15 years ago? If so, he's already halfway there.

If the glove don't fit, you must acquit; and if there is a pause, you have no cause.*

*I need to buy that bumper sticker

Nice, the Johnny Cochran approach!! The man sure could twist and confuse the obvious truth, I'll give you that.

Cannon, typical response from you ... thought it was getting dull for you, yet you still want to play?




BenedictGomez, you may know this but I figure I would put it out again. JB and Aleo & William Gray have always believe the ocean has been a better indicator for predicted the weather. Gray has been one of the first to suggest how the ocean drives climate. So it does not surprise me JB made a call that we would get cooling during the temp pause.

And speaking of pause here's another pause, the global ocean heat content may have paused starting 2003. The NODC link below shows this. The plot on the upper right graph is still up for debate among the scientists; the data is based on the new ARGO system, some adjustment had to be made on the results and it has made the alarmist question the overall validity of the data set. If you use the old data set, the 2003 to present is slightly increasing while the new data shows a decreasing trend. Either way you look at it, the ocean heat has been slowing down in recent times. In addition, notice the altimetry plots, it shows a steady rate as one would expect during an interglacial period.

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/SatelliteData/Education/DLESE/2008/lesson_2008_files/Altimetry_and_HC.jpg



here's the OHC for the North Atlantic, its losing heat. Kind of curious, in the US, winds blow from west to east, all that co2 should be accumulating in the Atlantic and heating up the region, still don't see it. The only place OHC is positive is in the Indian ocean. Haha... we definitely have to stop India from emitting their CO2. Or the OHC is another indication of a natural cycle.




IMO, given the OHC is doing this, it's yet another indicator that JB and Aleo is making this call.

 

[fbrissette]

View attachment 13023

Note - I am not arguing. Just providing peer-reviewed papers.

General reference:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2014/07/21/june-was-hottest-on-record/

If you want to brush up on your understanding on heat uptake by ocean, I suggest you read below and not rely on Jack97. Only a 2014 sample are cited below. There are hundreds of papers on the topic in the past 10 years. A small sample from 20 + scientists. Surprisingly, I could not find any papers saying the oceans were cooling off, and not a single paper by Bastardi (on any topic).

Lyman, John M., and Gregory C. Johnson. "Estimating global ocean heat content changes in the upper 1800 m since 1950 and the influence of climatology choice*." Journal of Climate 27.5 (2014): 1945-1957.

Frölicher, Thomas, et al. "Anthropogenic carbon and heat uptake in CMIP5 models: The dominance of the Southern Ocean." EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts. Vol. 16. 2014.

Rose, Brian EJ, et al. "The dependence of transient climate sensitivity and radiative feedbacks on the spatial pattern of ocean heat uptake." Geophysical Research Letters 41.3 (2014): 1071-1078.

Masters, Troy. "Observational estimate of climate sensitivity from changes in the rate of ocean heat uptake and comparison to CMIP5 models." Climate Dynamics 42.7-8 (2014): 2173-2181.

Kosaka, Yu. "Atmospheric science: Increasing wind sinks heat." Nature Climate Change 4.3 (2014): 172-173.

Palter, Jaime B., et al. "The deep ocean buoyancy budget and its temporal variability." Journal of Climate 27.2 (2014): 551-573.

 

[Cannonball]

Cannon, typical response from you ... thought it was getting dull for you, yet you still want to play

Well, like I said predictable = dull. But resurrecting the ghost of Johnny Cochran to argue against AGW was totally unpredictable!! I guess if someone believes that OJ was innocent anything is possible.

 

[dlague]

Squirrel!

 

[MadMadWorld]

Well, like I said predictable = dull. But resurrecting the ghost of Johnny Cochran to argue against AGW was totally unpredictable!! I guess if someone believes that OJ was innocent anything is possible.

At least 12 people did!

 

[Cannonball]

At least 12 people did!

Haha! Fair enough.

 

[jack97]

There are hundreds of papers on the topic in the past 10 years. A small sample from 20 + scientists.

More than half those papers you listed rely on simulations, most likely a model from the GCM5 set which admittedly is known to be inaccurate.

So far ARGO is the best observations we have in measuring ocean temps at various depths. There have been several papers that have analyzed these data sets, results shows the global OHC pause. If true, invalidates the missing heat suggestion. Another paper in the press by two prominent oceanographers which claims the observations do not rationalize the missing heat has gone lower into the deep ocean. There's some more which shows satellite reading; SST and long wave outgoing radiation that does not support CO2 forcing.

Surprisingly, I could not find any papers saying the oceans were cooling off, and not a single paper by Bastardi (on any topic).

Bastardi is a private/commercial meteorologist. His company survives by the accuracy of their predictions. If forecasters had the track record of the alarmist using their GCM models, they would be out of a job in the private sector. US government funding for global warming, climate change or climate disruption up to this date is roughly 136 billion, scholars trying to get their phd & tenure have to focus their studies to this political agenda. It's no wonder all of the scientist who believe in natural cause climate change have secure positions; tenure, chaired, head of department or emeritus title.

 

[fbrissette]

More than half those papers you listed rely on simulations,

No.

most likely a model from the GCM5 set which admittedly is known to be inaccurate.

There is no such thing called a GCM5 set.

So far ARGO is the best observations we have in measuring ocean temps at various depths.

One of the best dataset. Far from perfect like all other datasets of ocean temperatures.

There have been several papers that have analyzed these data sets, results shows the global OHC pause.

False. Can you please provide citations to those 'several' imaginary papers ? (not blogs, not websites - peer-reviewed papers).

Bastardi is a private/commercial meteorologist.

That's precisely my point. His job is to provide weather forecasts a few days ahead to private clients. For the nth time, meteorology and climatology are two very different disciplines.

 

[BenedictGomez]

His job is to provide weather forecasts a few days ahead to private clients. For the nth time, meteorology and climatology are two very different disciplines.

Correct.

With the former, it will be known if you're right or wrong near immediately, and your career will depend on results.

With the latter, it will take decades to know if you're right or wrong, and you'll be dead before you can face accountability.

I'm going to sue my guidance counselor.