2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

[St. Bear]

Not buying that one! Warmer than normal north and cooler south? That is a weird pattern.

That's relative to normal, not absolute temp.

 

[dlague]

That's relative to normal, not absolute temp.

Still not buying it!

 

[jack97]

Report on latest NOAA winter prediction and it mentions the contradiction from some of the privates; Accuweather & Weatherbell. Interesting that they also mentioned the Siberian snow cover correlation from Cohen.

http://www.bostonherald.com/news_op...s_dont_expect_winter_to_be_polar_vortex_redux

 

[4aprice]

Report on latest NOAA winter prediction and it mentions the contradiction from some of the privates; Accuweather & Weatherbell. Interesting that they also mentioned the Siberian snow cover correlation from Cohen.

http://www.bostonherald.com/news_op...s_dont_expect_winter_to_be_polar_vortex_redux

I don't trust anything the Fed's say these days.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[jack97]

I don't trust anything the Fed's say these days.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

Just throwing it out there for the record. This way we can judge how accurate they are versus the privates and the Siberian correlation.

If I truly voice how I feel about the Feds, the politically correct police will interject.

 

[skiberg]

Warmer in and of itself does not mean much to me. Precipitation is the biggest factor. It may be slightly warmer but all the precept could fall as snow. In any event if we in fact have a block I think that generally means more precip. It appears we are going to have a block, it appears the NAO is negative, it seems like a good bet that we are going to have more precept. One half of the equation looks positive. We just have to hope it stays cold enough for most of the precept to be snow.

 

[fbrissette]

Just throwing it out there for the record. This way we can judge how accurate they are versus the privates and the Siberian correlation.

If I truly voice how I feel about the Feds, the politically correct police will interject.

Seasonal forecasts have little skill in the east. In other words, it is difficult to have a forecasting record that is better than random. This means that you absolutely cannot pick and choose one or two years to judge who is better. In some odd year the random weather generator will beat all of the forecaster. If you want to get into the 'whose forecast is the best' debate, you need to look objectively at several years of forecasting.

Whether you like the feds or not, without them there are no numerical weather models, no observational network, no weather balloons, no satellite data and, obviously, no forecasting outside of Torricelli's barometer.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Have no fear. This was their outlook last year.

What makes this even worse is NOAA was essentially an outlier / contrarian call.

I don't trust anything the Fed's say these days.

I trust NOAA for most things, and for general weather, but I dont trust them on anything climate related, as it's "all over-the-top warming bias all the time". Regardless of your position on the AGM issue, pro or con, this should be pretty obvious if you pay close attention to NOAA. It's akin to watching a somewhat creepy sports fan rooting for his favorite team, and it's exceedingly political (which it shouldnt be).

 

[BenedictGomez]

Whether you like the feds or not, without them there are no numerical weather models, no observational network, no weather balloons, no satellite data and, obviously, no forecasting outside of Torricelli's barometer.

Well that's certainly not true. In addition to NOAA, there's the Japanese (JMA), the Europeans (EURO), the Canadians (CMC), the UK (UKIE), not to mention several decent private for-profit entities. Frankly the EURO trounces our weather models and with the 2013 upgrade out of Canada, Canada is better than us now too. I honestly barely even look at the America weather package in the winter, and I run all my own winter weather models off the Canadians' suite (very user friendly, more accurate, and fewer biases than NOAA).

 

[fbrissette]

Well that's certainly not true. In addition to NOAA, there's the Japanese (JMA), the Europeans (EURO), the Canadians (CMC), the UK (UKIE), not to mention several decent private for-profit entities. Frankly the EURO trounces our weather models and with the 2013 upgrade out of Canada, Canada is better than us now too. I honestly barely even look at the America weather package in the winter, and I run all my own winter weather models off the Canadians' suite (very user friendly, more accurate, and fewer biases than NOAA).

I was talking 'Feds' in general. All of those models come from government agencies of are funded by their respective governments. All of them. Without Federal governments there is no modern weather science period. I know it will be difficult for you to accept, but a central government can sometimes be useful.

There would be no private entities without the fundamental earth-observation infrastructure provided with governmental money around the world. None. Zero.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I was talking 'Feds' in general.

Gotcha. Do Canadians commonly use the term, "The Feds" to describe Ottawa & Canadian government? The English dont. The Aussies dont. I had thought (perhaps incorrectly) it was a uniquely American term to describe DC and the US government.

I know it will be difficult for you to accept, but a central government can sometimes be useful.

I know it will be difficult for you to accept, but a shovel can sometimes be useful.*

*I can say silly, obvious, and "red herring'ish" off-topic things too

 

[jack97]

Seasonal forecasts have little skill in the east. In other words, it is difficult to have a forecasting record that is better than random. This means that you absolutely cannot pick and choose one or two years to judge who is better. In some odd year the random weather generator will beat all of the forecaster. If you want to get into the 'whose forecast is the best' debate, you need to look objectively at several years of forecasting.

Whether you like the feds or not, without them there are no numerical weather models, no observational network, no weather balloons, no satellite data and, obviously, no forecasting outside of Torricelli's barometer.

hmm... not the political police i thought that would response but close enuf.

I totally agree with the bolded statement so that's why I originally put NOAA's forecast with no comment. However the charts showed NOAA was wrong last year, ircc JB and crew was hinting at a cold spell or saying the the AMO or other indexes was about to flip. For a good data set, you have to make a start at some point.

And BTW, you could dead wrong about how I feel about federally funding in the states..... but that's another political debate.

 

[slatham]

From the Boston Herald article:

"A repeat of last winter is not particularly likely," said Halpert, acting director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.

Last winter was the coldest winter in 20+ years and in some places the coldest ever. My 11 year old knows that a repeat of last winter in not likely!

Further:

Similarly, the high pressure ridge off the Pacific coast that last year kept rain out of California during its crucial winter rainy season is unlikely to return in force, Halpert said.

Sure, if you look at the US model (CSV2). The other models show a strong West Coast ridge due to the warm water anomaly off the west coast, similar to last year. In fact, the CSV2 shows this anomaly as well, but for some reason doesn't build a ridge over it, which seems strange to say the least.

More:

A long-expected El Nino — a warming of the tropical Pacific that changes weather worldwide — makes last year's extremes less likely and the wetter, cooler south more likely, Halpert said.

True statement, EXCEPT the El Nino is weak at best and nowhere near where NOAA forecasted it to be. This guy is 3 months behind.

Final point - I think NOAA is only looking at their own model. The JMA and Euro - as well as some well constructed analogs - are much more bullish on a cold and snowy winter for the East Coast. This is why Accuweather, Weatherbell, etc are colder. As cold as last year? Doubtful. But a much different winter than this government talking head is forecasting.

 

[BenedictGomez]

"A repeat of last winter is not particularly likely," said Halpert, acting director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. Last winter was the coldest winter in 20+ years and in some places the coldest ever. My 11 year old knows that a repeat of last winter in not likely!

This is the wiggle room they're going to spout when NOAA is proved wrong a few months from now.

Instead of focusing on the fact that they're currently calling for "warmer than average", they'll say it's warmer than last year (which was a historically cold winter) and focus on that, statistically obvious part of their prediction. It depends what the definition of is, is.

I think NOAA is only looking at their own model. The JMA and Euro - as well as some well constructed analogs - are much more bullish on a cold and snowy winter for the East Coast.

Absolutely. Arrogantly.

 

[Tin]

One thing is for sure, we will not be having October turns in the east.

 

[slatham]

Don't be so sure Tin. Though I do doubt we'll have lift served turns.

 

[catsup948]

Rain all next week is not going to help.

 

[Savemeasammy]

^ Top off the snowmaking ponds. I'm good with that.


Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone mobile app

 

[catsup948]

Yes!

 

[Abubob]

Snowing at the top of Sunapee today.

...and apparently everywhere else as well.