2014-2015 Winter Forecast (here we go)

[Puck it]

Or just one good 400" dumping.

. I think I have had one of those.

 

[dlague]

I'll sleep outside if needed, but I'll be first chair for that one.

If you could find it! It would take them days even to become operational! Definitely would be some great parties while waiting though!


.......

 

[BenedictGomez]

Newest Siberian snow data update. This time from DT. It still looks incredibly impressive. Fingers crossed (toes too).

 

[catsup948]

Interesting to see if December is snowy this winter. I feel like it's been awhile since a good December down here. December is traditionally snowy month for a lot of New England. I don't mind January thaw as much if I've had some great days before mlk day.

 

[skiNEwhere]

Newest Siberian snow data update. This time from DT. It still looks incredibly impressive. Fingers crossed (toes too).

Can you explain this rough correlation? Or is it simply, more early season snow in Siberia, more in the north east?

 

[jack97]

Can you explain this rough correlation? Or is it simply, more early season snow in Siberia, more in the north east?

not sure what parameters bg is monitoring. but last years article about cohen' s analysis is the snow cover rate of advance in oct.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...n-produces-amazingly-accurate-winter-outlook/

 

[BenedictGomez]

Can you explain this rough correlation? Or is it simply, more early season snow in Siberia, more in the north east?

Yes.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Another winter prediction. Hopefully his being southern-based is jading his analysis, as while it's similar thinking, his "colder and more snow" area is further south than most predictions.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Looks like the November forecast has complete flipped from the mild to slightly-warm and now looks like it might be fairly cool

 

[jack97]

Here's another forecast, its from weather channel. The forecast was prepared from their sister company, a private forecasting service.

It aligns with some of the stuff mentioned before, in addition it mentions siberian snowcover correlation. NOAA does seem to be the outlier for this season.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-forecast-outlook-theweatherchannel-20141015

 

[BenedictGomez]

NOAA does seem to be the outlier for this season.

What else is new? Cant wait for the Schadenfreude when NOAA's wrong again.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Here's a cool tool when you can day by day see the impressive Eurasian snowcover expansion.

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sample_loop2.php

 

[BenedictGomez]

Bastardi trolling NOAA's Climate Forecasts hard, but he has a great point.

Here are the last 9 daily seasonal climate forecast panels leading into November, all predicting a very warm November (which I was parroting in this thread based on their data).

Now that November's actually here the reality is at least the 1st half is going to be cooler than normal, so if NOAA's to be correct then November 16th to November 30th better be an absolute scorcher of a blowtorch.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Another 2014/15 snow map from a professional met (Allan Huffman).

Cant get enough snow map predictions....

 

[catsup948]

Another 2014/15 snow map from a professional met (Allan Huffman).

Cant get enough snow map predictions....

I'm loving these above average snow predictions!

 

[KevinF]

Of the last two maps posted, one shows "near average" temps/snowfall for New England and one shows "much above normal snowfall" for New England.

I don't know how "advanced" a science meteorology is these days, but given that the various long-range forecasts have very little in common with each other, I'm thinking the field of long-range forecasting is in its infancy and these graphs should be viewed primarily for their humor value.

 

[dlague]

Of the last two maps posted, one shows "near average" temps/snowfall for New England and one shows "much above normal snowfall" for New England.

I don't know how "advanced" a science meteorology is these days, but given that the various long-range forecasts have very little in common with each other, I'm thinking the field of long-range forecasting is in its infancy and these graphs should be viewed primarily for their humor value.

You go with the most favorable map for the stoke factor!

 

[BenedictGomez]

I don't know how "advanced" a science meteorology is these days, but given that the various long-range forecasts have very little in common with each other, I'm thinking the field of long-range forecasting is in its infancy and these graphs should be viewed primarily for their humor value.

The long-range projection stuff often goes horribly wrong, but it's still fun to look at. At the end of the day, yes, it's a field in it's infancy, but much of science is trial and error.

You go with the most favorable map for the stoke factor!

That's a good strategy too!

 

[KevinF]

You go with the most favorable map for the stoke factor!

Yeah, I have no problem with that!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Oh, hai NOAA!

Nice to see you, where have you been? Better late than never I suppose.