Smellytele
Well-known member
Nothing seemed political there just plain facts. Why go back to work until you have to if you will be making less? Nothing left or right about that just smart personal economics.
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Alterra Furloughs Employees and Postpones Some of its Lift Projects Slated for 2020
- Thread starter thetrailboss
- Start date
Nothing seemed political there just plain facts. Why go back to work until you have to if you will be making less? Nothing left or right about that just smart personal economics.
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Edd
Well-known member
Living on the dole, as some would call it, can get political fast. Pretty obvious, really.
Back on topic.
Alterra was in the initial bid process for Jay. I wonder if they pulled out.
Dickc
Active member
My guess is Saddleback needs to move forward on their lift install seeing as they cut and dropped all the Rangely double towers!
fbrissette
Well-known member
I was told they passed. I have no clue what this all means for Jay Peak's sale, but I would assume that the number of potential buyers has gone down very significantly.
machski
Well-known member
They were going to have to do that no matter what if they wanted to open for 20-21. Rangley double after sitting for 5 years without maintenance was never going to spin again. I would say that install and Timberline Mountain WV installs (a six pack anda FGQ) are likely goes since both areas are trying to re-open. Any other lift replacements/new installs are questionable if for no other reason than concern construction may not progress smoothly this year. Snowmass says they are continuing witht the Big Burn Chair replacement, they could manage without that lift if they had to, that terrain is accessible by other lifts and it is an upper mountain lift so not as critical. Time will tell if they follow through, but for the Crown's, doubt $$ is a major factor.
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There were pics online of them starting to prepare to remove Big Burn.
Saw those, too. To machski's point, that terrain can be accessed in the event that Big Burn can't get completed this summer, which de-risks the move from an operational perspective. I'd imagine if things are so bad the lift can't get finished, skier volume/expectations will be way down anyway.
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Just keeping Scotty happy.
ScottySkis
Well-known member
Lol
VTKilarney
Well-known member
jimk
Well-known member
This is an especially dismal prognosis of the future of the real estate market, driven downwards by corona fallout and silver tsunami: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...avirus-fallout-u-s-housing-prices-will-tumble
If the second home market takes a big dive how badly does that hurt the ski world, slowing lift installations and infrastructure improvements? And which companies/resorts take the biggest hits?
Article summary/excerpt:
Another U.S.-Wide Housing Slump Is Coming
The coronavirus pandemic will cause many cash-strapped Americans to sell their homes, flooding the market with excess supply.
By Danielle DiMartino Booth
April 10, 2020, 7:00 AM EDT
The housing market will suffer.
Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former adviser to the president of the Dallas Fed, is the author of "Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve Is Bad for America," and founder of Quill Intelligence.
Read more opinion
Follow @DiMartinoBooth on Twitter
A U.S. housing crisis is coming and although it won't be anything like the last one, that won’t make it any less painful. Even though there has been no rampant speculation or subprime mortgage fraud, housing is still overvalued. And the dearth of inventory that’s plagued the current cycle will reverse in violent fashion once the worst of the virus has passed as financially strapped homeowners seek to raise cash. And as affordability collapses with fewer buyers eligible to buy a home, the only way to rectify the mismatch between supply and demand will be via declining prices.
Home prices dropped about 35% between mid-2006 and early 2009 in the first nationwide decline since the Great Depression as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. They have since recovered, and are now at 117% of their prior peak level in 2006. Home prices historically meandered in a range of three to four times median incomes, jumping to 5.1 times in December 2005 before collapsing. The ratio is now at 4.4 times, a level that was unprecedented prior to June 2004.
Several factors that characterized the last decade will now work against housing. The lowest interest rates in U.S. history spurred a boom in luxury housing. At the start of the last decade, about a fifth of the homes in the U.S. were priced at $300,000 or higher. Ten years on, that's true for more than half of all homes. The National Association of Realtors says the inventory of existing homes for sale has dropped to about three months of supply from more than seven months. Supply has shrunk as millions of Baby Boomers unexpectedly delayed downsizing. One of the reasons for this was the longest bull market in stocks in history, which afforded would-be sellers the wherewithal to continue carrying higher maintenance and larger homes than otherwise possible.
The recent reversal in the stock market has the potential to expedite the long anticipated “Silver Tsunami.” A June 2019 Fannie Mae report tallied the number of homes owned by boomers and the generation that preceded at about 46 million, more than a third of the 140-million-home housing stock. Zillow Group Inc. predicts “upwards of 20 million homes hitting the market through the mid-2030s (which) will provide a substantial and sustained boost to supply, comparable to the fluctuations that new home construction experienced in the 2000s boom-bust cycle.”
But now, the number of homes Zillow projected to hit the market in a disciplined fashion over the next 15 years will become an exodus as retirees’ need to monetize the equity in their homes to supplement their disposable income skyrockets. One can only imagine how swiftly home prices will decline once boomers feel safe enough to open their homes to outsiders as...
If the second home market takes a big dive how badly does that hurt the ski world, slowing lift installations and infrastructure improvements? And which companies/resorts take the biggest hits?
Article summary/excerpt:
Another U.S.-Wide Housing Slump Is Coming
The coronavirus pandemic will cause many cash-strapped Americans to sell their homes, flooding the market with excess supply.
By Danielle DiMartino Booth
April 10, 2020, 7:00 AM EDT
The housing market will suffer.
Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former adviser to the president of the Dallas Fed, is the author of "Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve Is Bad for America," and founder of Quill Intelligence.
Read more opinion
Follow @DiMartinoBooth on Twitter
A U.S. housing crisis is coming and although it won't be anything like the last one, that won’t make it any less painful. Even though there has been no rampant speculation or subprime mortgage fraud, housing is still overvalued. And the dearth of inventory that’s plagued the current cycle will reverse in violent fashion once the worst of the virus has passed as financially strapped homeowners seek to raise cash. And as affordability collapses with fewer buyers eligible to buy a home, the only way to rectify the mismatch between supply and demand will be via declining prices.
Home prices dropped about 35% between mid-2006 and early 2009 in the first nationwide decline since the Great Depression as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. They have since recovered, and are now at 117% of their prior peak level in 2006. Home prices historically meandered in a range of three to four times median incomes, jumping to 5.1 times in December 2005 before collapsing. The ratio is now at 4.4 times, a level that was unprecedented prior to June 2004.
Several factors that characterized the last decade will now work against housing. The lowest interest rates in U.S. history spurred a boom in luxury housing. At the start of the last decade, about a fifth of the homes in the U.S. were priced at $300,000 or higher. Ten years on, that's true for more than half of all homes. The National Association of Realtors says the inventory of existing homes for sale has dropped to about three months of supply from more than seven months. Supply has shrunk as millions of Baby Boomers unexpectedly delayed downsizing. One of the reasons for this was the longest bull market in stocks in history, which afforded would-be sellers the wherewithal to continue carrying higher maintenance and larger homes than otherwise possible.
The recent reversal in the stock market has the potential to expedite the long anticipated “Silver Tsunami.” A June 2019 Fannie Mae report tallied the number of homes owned by boomers and the generation that preceded at about 46 million, more than a third of the 140-million-home housing stock. Zillow Group Inc. predicts “upwards of 20 million homes hitting the market through the mid-2030s (which) will provide a substantial and sustained boost to supply, comparable to the fluctuations that new home construction experienced in the 2000s boom-bust cycle.”
But now, the number of homes Zillow projected to hit the market in a disciplined fashion over the next 15 years will become an exodus as retirees’ need to monetize the equity in their homes to supplement their disposable income skyrockets. One can only imagine how swiftly home prices will decline once boomers feel safe enough to open their homes to outsiders as...
In terms of the real estate market...I think this situation could have a profound impact on commercial office real estate as well. Beyond the simple point of companies downsizing or disappearing potentially, you also have many that will realize they can get by with far less office space and utilize/allow remote workers far more than they do today. Why pay for expensive physical office space when people can work remotely for less cost?
mbedle
Well-known member
Yes, can see this happen to some extent. Although it will take some time, given that the majority of businesses are locked into long term leases.
Yea, it definitely won't happen overnight. But it will change the strategy going forward. And to be honest, that strategy should have been changing anyway as working remotely has become more viable in recent years. This will just be the wake up call some companies needed to realize that remote working CAN work. I know my company was already looking to move to a smaller location within the next 2 years in NJ even before this happened. This will just accelerate that trend.
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
Whenever this subject comes up, I always chime in that I believe US home prices are currently at a level higher than economic fundamentals can logically support in most US markets. Home price increases in excess of real income are simply not sustainable for obvious reasons.
And I do think COVID19 will have a negative effect on home prices, but I couldn't disagree more with her thesis as to why, that thousands of cash-strapped Americans will sell their house to raise cash. History tells us this is not so, people tend to do whatever they can to REMAIN in their home. That said, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that increasing unemployment, declining stock market, deteriorating wealth effect, lower consumption, etc. will have near-term negative economic effects that will bleed-through to the housing market. So I think the author will be correct, but for the wrong reason.
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
I believe there will be a commercial real estate crisis in this country within 20 years. Once the gray-haired people in power are replaced by the millennials, massive downsizing of corporate space will commence. I believe it will get so bad that plenty of corporate skyscrapers will be remodeled into apartment living, with the bottom floor being retail & dining.
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