Big Burke announcement

[SkiRaceParent]

Now that is an interesting observation. The Burke hotel is supposed to be modeled after the Tram Haus Lodge. I was not aware of the pace of construction for the Tram Haus. You would think that, adjusting for seasonal effects, the pace would be similar.

I thought the Tram Haus was modular construction and this is by hand? Maybe I'm confusing it with the new Stateside.

 

[VTKilarney]

I thought the Tram Haus was modular construction and this is by hand? Maybe I'm confusing it with the new Stateside.

Stateside was modular. I don't know about Tram Haus.

 

[from_the_NEK]

Now that is an interesting observation. The Burke hotel is supposed to be modeled after the Tram Haus Lodge. I was not aware of the pace of construction for the Tram Haus. You would think that, adjusting for seasonal effects, the pace would be similar.

Except that the Mid Burke Hotel is TWICE the size of the Tram House Lodge. Add to that the huge amount of site work (dirt moving) that is still occurring on the far side of the hotel out of sight of the webcam.
From the look of things they are also pretty busy inside the "basement" installing utility infrastructure.

From Burke's Facebook:

 

[from_the_NEK]

I thought the Tram Haus was modular construction and this is by hand? Maybe I'm confusing it with the new Stateside.

Tram House was stick built. Stateside was modular (the hotel section anyway).

 

[from_the_NEK]

Correction to above:
Including the Day Lodge/Common area, the Mid Burke Hotel is 2.4 times the size of the Tram House Lodge.

 

[VTKilarney]

Correction to above:
Including the Day Lodge/Common area, the Mid Burke Hotel is 2.4 times the size of the Tram House Lodge.

That definitely accounts for a difference. Thanks for the clarification.

 

[VTKilarney]

Correction to above:
Including the Day Lodge/Common area, the Mid Burke Hotel is 2.4 times the size of the Tram House Lodge.

I just realized that the EB-5 numbers back this up. Tram Haus had 35 investors. Assuming $500,000 each, that's a $17.5 million investment. It was mentioned that Stenger/Quiros contributed ten percent, so figure that it cost just shy of $20 million to build. The Burke hotel is projected to cost $55 million to build.

 

[thetrailboss]

Correction to above:
Including the Day Lodge/Common area, the Mid Burke Hotel is 2.4 times the size of the Tram House Lodge.

Wow. That also explains the $55 mill price tag.

 

[Masskier]

Article in today's Cal Record states that Burke will be open daily next week. Also announces the new GM. And speaking of the Hotel, it states that the construction is ahead of schedule. That is a good thing as they started booking events for the Hotel last month.

 

[from_the_NEK]

It is amazing you guys haven't picked up on this yet. Since the first plans came, out they have been saying it is going to be two Tram House like buildings joined with a day lodge. They even have a picture of what it is going to look like.

This building huge ~550' from corner to corner.

Try to picture it this way at Jay.
Looking the Tram House Lodge from the mountainside.
To the right side attach the building that houses the International Room/Country store to it (roughly where the Tram dock building is).
Then attach a mirror image of the Tram House lodge to the right of that. The building would almost reach the outdoor pool over by Hotel Jay.
Something roughly like this:

Relative building sizes to note:
Hotel Jay is roughly 540' from end to end (including the stairway gap between sections of the building). Edit: f you add up the various wings it's footprint is roughly 800' in total length.

Jay's Stateside Hotel Lodge = 350' long

Sugarbush: Clay Brook Hotel/Condo (place that looks like a barn) = U shaped footprint 460' (not including Timbers Restaurant)

Killington Grand Hotel = 710'

Okemo Jackson Gore Hotel/Lodge = 770' (U-shape)

Mt Snow Grand = 750' (T-shape)

Attitash Grand Summit Hotel = 530'

 

[deadheadskier]

Article in today's Cal Record states that Burke will be open daily next week. Also announces the new GM. And speaking of the Hotel, it states that the construction is ahead of schedule. That is a good thing as they started booking events for the Hotel last month.

That's a subscription site. Who is the GM? What is their background?

 

[VTKilarney]

The manager is Todd Gagnon. The article mentions military experience, and that's it.

This may or may not be him:
http://regimentalryan.tumblr.com/post/80210290174/vermont-national-guard-1st-sgt-todd-gagnon-a

 

[deadheadskier]

So basically one of Ary's guard buddies. Predictable

 

[BenedictGomez]

Stenger stated in April that Burke was 25% funded. The figure that is most commonly used for the Burke project is $108 million. The contractor of the hotel (J. Davis), in September 2014, told a news outlet that the hotel that is now under construction would cost "about $55 million" to build. If we assume that Stenger was referring to fundraising for the whole project, we can infer that as of April approximately $27 million had been raised just to complete the hotel. This was shortly before ground was broken. That left $28 million to be raised for completion of the hotel.

So the real question is what have they raised since April, since we know that they had a LONG way to go. Seeing the various projects that are languishing (AnC Bio, Newport, Stateside), there is reason to believe that EB-5 fundraising has significantly languished.

There's such a simple solution to all this.

Just place a phone call to the Vermont EB-5 Regional Center and ask them.

Surely that gilded government pillar or truth, openness, transparency, and vaunted "accounting watch dog" will have the answer for you in less than 5 minutes.

It is interesting that there has been no formal announcement on funding. But with that said, I don't think anyone (and I hope I'm not wrong) would be crazy enough to start a project of that magnitude up here with the risk of it not being completed. I imagine there is a bank already behind it as a back stop, as a worst case.

I wouldn't be so sure. Put it this way, if the project ISNT fully funded already, they've already taken that risk, however small it may be.

As for your banking assumption, I'm not even sure what you mean. This is funded with "free money".

Correction to above:
Including the Day Lodge/Common area, the Mid Burke Hotel is 2.4 times the size of the Tram House Lodge.

Holy poop on a Popsicle stick! That's HUGE!

There's going to be some awesome lodging deals up there once the intentionally overoptimistic long-term vacancy versus capacity projections required to get shovels in the ground predictably fail. SWEET!

 

[Masskier]

up to 29 trails open for tomorrow

 

[SkiRaceParent]

There's such a simple solution to all this.

Just place a phone call to the Vermont EB-5 Regional Center and ask them.

Surely that gilded government pillar or truth, openness, transparency, and vaunted "accounting watch dog" will have the answer for you in less than 5 minutes.



I wouldn't be so sure. Put it this way, if the project ISNT fully funded already, they've already taken that risk, however small it may be.

As for your banking assumption, I'm not even sure what you mean. This is funded with "free money".



Holy poop on a Popsicle stick! That's HUGE!

There's going to be some awesome lodging deals up there once the intentionally overoptimistic long-term vacancy versus capacity projections required to get shovels in the ground predictably fail. SWEET!

We get it. Your agenda is overly clear in your commentary, you don't like the EB-5 program and those that are running it. Thanks for that update on everything, quite helpful to hear the same thing for the 45th time.

As for my banker comment, as you may or may not banks make money by lending money at a certain interest rate to projects. If I were a banker in the north country, I'd look at the hotel as an easy win. Collateral value which is the hotel will be funded by equity with, as you call it "free money" (not so free but sure, for now we can go with that). So in the event the hotel can't be fully funded, you in affect own the hotel with your principal being the amount you lent (in this case, using VTK's numbers, the difference between 30 and 55 million, so 30 million). Sure, I'll buy a hotel that just cost $55 M to build for $25 M. where do I sign up...I don't quite know the idiosyncrasies of the EB-5 program but I assume that those projects have the same bankruptcy protection laws as every other business out there, in which case their 'equity' would go away, and the bank would own the project/hotel outright. Make sense?

 

[VTKilarney]

Burke just posted a map like the one I had drawn. The good news is that there are a couple of more trails they will be opening, including a better route from the Sherburne Express. It looks like we are off to a good start!

 

[from_the_NEK]

Only the upper 1/3 of Lower Willoughby will be open ;-).

 

[VTKilarney]

Only the upper 1/3 of Lower Willoughby will be open ;-).

And you have to walk from the Sherburne Express to the Mid Burke Express. ;-)

 

[BenedictGomez]

We get it. Your agenda is overly clear in your commentary, you don't like the EB-5 program and those that are running it. Thanks for that update on everything, quite helpful to hear the same thing for the 45th time.

You are correct; I dont like EB-5. That doesn't make my opinion on the particulars of the matter any less valid.

As for, "those that are running it", they are either: (A) incompetent or (B) wholly complicit. There is no choice (C), and both (A) & (B) are unfortunate.

As for my banker comment, as you may or may not banks make money by lending money at a certain interest rate to projects. If I were a banker in the north country, I'd look at the hotel as an easy win. Collateral value which is the hotel will be funded by equity with, as you call it "free money" (not so free but sure, for now we can go with that). So in the event the hotel can't be fully funded, you in affect own the hotel with your principal being the amount you lent (in this case, using VTK's numbers, the difference between 30 and 55 million, so 30 million). Sure, I'll buy a hotel that just cost $55 M to build for $25 M. where do I sign up...I don't quite know the idiosyncrasies of the EB-5 program but I assume that those projects have the same bankruptcy protection laws as every other business out there, in which case their 'equity' would go away, and the bank would own the project/hotel outright.

Make sense?

Assuming you want to quickly lose your job as VP of Commercial Lending? Yes.