Big Burke announcement

[fbrissette]

For those of us that are laypersons, what does this mean?

The sudden apparent increase in snow total in the 1970-2013 is likely an artifact due to equipment/methodology/location change.

Having said that, even when correcting for this jump, there is no apparent decrease in snow totals, thus validating your point, at least for this station.

 

[BenedictGomez]

The sudden apparent increase in snow total in the 1970-2013 is likely an artifact due to equipment/methodology/location change.

Glad to hear you agree that that can be a statistically significant factor that should be taken into account.

 

[fbrissette]

Glad to hear you agree that that can be a statistically significant factor that should be taken into account.

No need to do testing to state that there is a statistically significant shift in there. There are instances where sudden shifts like these are linked to climate natural variability, but most of the times they're not.

 

[VTKilarney]

St. Johnsbury weather data has been recorded by the same facility since the mid-1800s. So it most likely not a location issue.

Why do you presume that the increase is the result of a methodology or equipment change rather than an actual increase in snowfall? I'd much prefer that more snow is falling, after all.

 

[VTKilarney]

FYI, there is a time frame for the construction of the hotel that is outlined starting on page 156 of this document:
http://www.globaldetailinginc.com/d...HC Bid Book & Documents Complete - 130523.pdf

The timeline is for a 2013 construction start, but it's easy enough to adjust for the actual start of construction. If I am reading this correctly, construction started about a month earlier than this document contemplates. If that is correct, then the exterior of the hotel is not scheduled to be completed until August, 2015.

A lot of other drawings, etc can be found here:
http://www.globaldetailinginc.com/drawings/Jeffordssteel/Q Burke Mtn Resort/QBHC - To Quote/

 

[Masskier]

Some updated photos of the progress on the Hotel

 

[SkiRaceParent]

If the project was funded, wouldn't someone be on one of the ladders? :wink:

 

[VTKilarney]

Masskier must have told them last night to expect a POW day, so they're probably out skiing. ;-)

 

[thetrailboss]

If the project was funded, wouldn't someone be on one of the ladders? :wink:

Exactly! :lol:

 

[fbrissette]

St. Johnsbury weather data has been recorded by the same facility since the mid-1800s. So it most likely not a location issue.

Why do you presume that the increase is the result of a methodology or equipment change rather than an actual increase in snowfall? I'd much prefer that more snow is falling, after all.

I would much rather prefer it is a real increase in snowfall. However, if it is indeed due to the climate, you would expect similar changes regionally and it is not something I have seen in Southern Quebec. In fact in Southern Quebec, we have statistically valid increasing trends in winter flows and earlier spring floods which are both compatible with a thinner snowpack.

The fact that it is in the same facility does not mean it is not location dependent. Changes in the surroundings (new buildings, tree growth) could have an impact. There was equipment changes for sure throughout the years. Snow is difficult to measure. They likely measure equivalent liquid precipitation (snow is melted within the rain gauge to measure liquid precip) and snow is reconstructed using temperatures. If so, a change in temperature measurement could be to blame. May be a different algorithm was introduced. There could be lots of reason for the shift, including the climate. However, in most cases, sudden shifts like this (stationary on either side) are not climate related.

 

[VTKilarney]

The forecasters at the Fairbanks Museum are predicting that the next storm will be a rain event. Let's hope the forecast changes, or that they can make some serious snow prior to the rain.

 

[VTKilarney]

Despite Masskier's POW alert, it looks like there are 13 fewer trails open after the last storm. I'm really kicking myself for not getting out early in the week, but it just wasn't viable for a workload standpoint.

Right now there is only one man-made snow way down the main mountain. They need to get cranking on the snowmaking for the Christmas holiday. I'd love to hear reports of snow guns blowing if anyone sees that happening.

 

[Masskier]

Yesterday 41 trails were open, today there are 39. Skiing continues to be great for this time of the year. (legs are really sore today) My concern is Wednesday's storm. Haven't heard about a POW alert.

 

[thetrailboss]

The forecasters at the Fairbanks Museum are predicting that the next storm will be a rain event. Let's hope the forecast changes, or that they can make some serious snow prior to the rain.

Well not to be a naysayer, but anecdotally I recall a rain event occurring in VT usually right before the holiday.

 

[VTKilarney]

Well not to be a naysayer, but anecdotally I recall a rain event occurring in VT usually right before the holiday.

What's frustrating is that we haven't had a good stretch of snowmaking temps when they are most needed. The areas that gambled on blowing snow later with a focus on ramping up in mid to late December have got to be regretting that decision.

 

[Smellytele]

What's frustrating is that we haven't had a good stretch of snowmaking temps when they are most needed. The areas that gambled on blowing snow later with a focus on ramping up in mid to late December have got to be regretting that decision.

not the ones that got snow

 

[VTKilarney]

not the ones that got snow

Very true. Central Vermont is in fine shape. Many resorts farther east were not nearly as lucky.

 

[Cannonball]

Do these still qualify as Big Burke announcements? Maybe we can start up a Burke Conditions thread.

 

[VTKilarney]

Do these still qualify as Big Burke announcements? Maybe we can start up a Burke Conditions thread.

I think that this thread has morphed into all things Burke.

 

[from_the_NEK]

I like to think of it as the "Triple B" thread.

Busy Bodies of Burke