Big Burke announcement

[Masskier]

Jack, you keep dodging my question. Do you have actual information or are you merely speculating? A high level source told me that the money is not there to begin construction at Burke this year. We know that one date has already fallen by the wayside. There has been no talk of jobs starting up there, no construction trailer... Nothing. I'm rooting for this project, but I'm looking for answers, not just cheerleading.

Dodging your question?? You asked "... want to revise your estimate?" I answered "No" That's pretty direct. Then the next question you asked me was " Do you have actual information or are you merely speculating?" and my answer is Yes, I have actual information and No, I am not speculating. You stated that a high level source told you that the money isn't there to start construction this year. Really??, Cause that's nothing new, that same rumor that's been circulating around Burke all winter. Why don't you just ask your high level source when the hotel is going to start? I'm sure if he's high level I know him and you would get the same answers. The reality is no matter what Burke supporter (cheerleader) says, it will be doubted. So be patient and over the summer go up and watch the construction. FYI the GC has been hired and you won't see any job trailer until the snow melts and ground stabilizing.

 

[VTKilarney]

I assumed that, Really??

Well, you said that you were refusing to revise your belief that construction would be starting this spring despite learning of Stenger's comment that Burke was only 25% funded.

So it can only be one of two things:
1) You assumed that it was 25% of the whole and there are sufficient funds to commence Phase 1; or
2) You believe that Phase 1 is 25% funded but that they will nonetheless start construction this spring.

If it's #2, I seriously question your judgment. Assuming you have a modicum of judgment, it seems fair to believe that you assumed it was 25% of the whole.

We obviously have conflicting information from our sources. I am content to wait and see which one of us is able to produce more reliable information to this forum.

But answer just one question for me: Why would Stenger have passed on an opportunity to say that ground is about to be broken at Burke? Stenger is a very smart man, so if you are correct there must have been a reason.

The one possible answer that I can think of is that it is going forward with private (non EB-5) investment. Do you believe this to be the case?

 

[Masskier]

Was it enough to make up for a 40% loss? I doubt it. Christmas, MLK, and President's were all off from what I heard. They did have a good "second half" I'm sure, but as you well know after President's Week business does fall off significantly.

To date, They are off very Little from last year.

 

[thetrailboss]

Jack, you keep dodging my question. Do you have actual information or are you merely speculating? A high level source told me that the money is not there to begin construction at Burke this year. We know that one date has already fallen by the wayside. There has been no talk of jobs starting up there, no construction trailer... Nothing. I'm rooting for this project, but I'm looking for answers, not just cheerleading.

Dodging your question?? You asked "... want to revise your estimate?" I answered "No" That's pretty direct. Then the next question you asked me was " Do you have actual information or are you merely speculating?" and my answer is Yes, I have actual information and No, I am not speculating. You stated that a high level source told you that the money isn't there to start construction this year. Really??, Cause that's nothing new, that same rumor that's been circulating around Burke all winter. Why don't you just ask your high level source when the hotel is going to start? I'm sure if he's high level I know him and you would get the same answers. The reality is no matter what Burke supporter (cheerleader) says, it will be doubted. So be patient and over the summer go up and watch the construction. FYI the GC has been hired and you won't see any job trailer until the snow melts and ground stabilizing.

OK Masskier, let's relax. This kind of questioning is nothing new . A while back you really got called out for saying some pretty hyperbolic things and some grand claims that were not really true. You came out and admitted that you have a significant business interest at Burke....and folks questioned if your claims were related to promoting that. A few weeks back you were saying some crazy things...like that they will be skiing into June, etc. Folks are really concerned about the mountain and to hear the main man saying that they had only 25% of the funds for Burke and that other projects are on hold seems to be 180 degrees different from what you are saying.

One of the things that is important about AZ is that folks get credible information about what is going on. Folks from the resorts themselves do come in (Burke was one of those resorts for a long time). That's very important. To that effect, folks will question something if it seems off.

And if was at Burke right now I'd be at pond skimming and not online....but that's just me.

 

[VTKilarney]

To date, They are off very Little from last year.

On March 15th, Vermont Business Magazine said that skier visits in Vermont were down 10% from the previous year. This is an industry-wide statistic that may or may not reflect a particular mountain's fate. The 10% figure is not as bad as it sounds, though, since last year was a banner year.

 

[Masskier]

OK Masskier, let's relax. This kind of questioning is nothing new . A while back you really got called out for saying some pretty hyperbolic things and some grand claims that were not really true. You came out and admitted that you have a significant business interest at Burke....and folks questioned if your claims were related to promoting that. A few weeks back you were saying some crazy things...like that they will be skiing into June, etc. Folks are really concerned about the mountain and to hear the main man saying that they had only 25% of the funds for Burke and that other projects are on hold seems to be 180 degrees different from what you are saying.

One of the things that is important about AZ is that folks get credible information about what is going on. Folks from the resorts themselves do come in (Burke was one of those resorts for a long time). That's very important. To that effect, folks will question something if it seems off.

And if was at Burke right now I'd be at pond skimming and not online....but that's just me.

Pond skimming starts at 1 PM. And its a long pond this year. I have always given the best information that was available at the time. That doesn't mean that priorities and time schedules never change. I've been on the Board at BMA for several years, and I have had a close relationship and a development partnership with Burke since 2004. So I do have some insights of what is going on here. I get tired of the bad information that is given out by people who say they have sources that know. Ok one more post and then off to pond skimming and then to open house.

 

[Masskier]

Well, you said that you were refusing to revise your belief that construction would be starting this spring despite learning of Stenger's comment that Burke was only 25% funded.

So it can only be one of two things:
1) You assumed that it was 25% of the whole and there are sufficient funds to commence Phase 1; or
2) You believe that Phase 1 is 25% funded but that they will nonetheless start construction this spring.

If it's #2, I seriously question your judgment. Assuming you have a modicum of judgment, it seems fair to believe that you assumed it was 25% of the whole.

We obviously have conflicting information from our sources. I am content to wait and see which one of us is able to produce more reliable information to this forum.

But answer just one question for me: Why would Stenger have passed on an opportunity to say that ground is about to be broken at Burke? Stenger is a very smart man, so if you are correct there must have been a reason.

The one possible answer that I can think of is that it is going forward with private (non EB-5) investment. Do you believe this to be the case?

Why do you assume what you think I am assuming? its a waste of time.

How about #3. Fund raising for Burke is going very well, They have raised approx 25% of the project total, and they are breaking ground on the hotel soon. Why can't you assume that to be true? Instead of taking the opposite approach of every little thing that comes out about Burke. As I said everyone has heard the same rumor that has been circulating all winter.

We are lucky to have a Bill Stenger. As you known he has an incredible track record. Listen to the video again. There is nothing he says that would indicate Burke is delayed.

 

[VTKilarney]

Why do you assume what you think I am assuming? its a waste of time.

How about #3. Fund raising for Burke is going very well, They have raised approx 25% of the project total, and they are breaking ground on the hotel soon. Why can't you assume that to be true?.

Because, for a project that is already delayed, those statements cannot all be true. It's really that simple. I'm shocked that you can't understand this.

 

[thetrailboss]

Pond skimming starts at 1 PM. And its a long pond this year. I have always given the best information that was available at the time. That doesn't mean that priorities and time schedules never change. I've been on the Board at BMA for several years, and I have had a close relationship and a development partnership with Burke since 2004. So I do have some insights of what is going on here. I get tired of the bad information that is given out by people who say they have sources that know. Ok one more post and then off to pond skimming and then to open house.

So theses sources said this:

Conditions continue to be great. I haven't seen this much snow pack this late, in a long time. I hope they spin the lifts on weekends to May.

Come on. You know that Burke has NEVER been open past the middle of April...and even that is a rare exception.

Why do you assume what you think I am assuming? its a waste of time.

How about #3. Fund raising for Burke is going very well, They have raised approx 25% of the project total, and they are breaking ground on the hotel soon. Why can't you assume that to be true? Instead of taking the opposite approach of every little thing that comes out about Burke. As I said everyone has heard the same rumor that has been circulating all winter.

So you went from saying that "they are definitely starting on the hotel this spring" to "they are breaking ground on the hotel soon". So you agree that there is reason to believe that things are indeed delayed?

 

[VTKilarney]

It gives me no pleasure to say this, but we need to clarify one thing. While Stenger has proven to be a visionary at raising and spending other people's money, it remains to be seen if he has the skills to pay it back. Until he can prove that he can, it stands to reason that investors may look more critically at his projects - for better or for worse.

Also, the best way to attract investors, whether it's selling condos or EB-5 investments, is to have a track record of honesty. Assuring results that don't wind up being delivered does not build faith in management. Cheerleading can ultimately work against the mountain if it distorts reality. Enthusiasm is fine. Fact distortion is not.

 

[Masskier]

Because, for a project that is already delayed, those statements cannot all be true. It's really that simple. I'm shocked that you can't understand this.

Oh, I can understand it all right.. Look, I am saying that Burke is moving forward with their development. You disagree. Thats fine we don't have to agree. I just find it interesting how some look for any info they can find to doubt the realities of what is happening. ie.. aren't you the one that suggested that Burke wasn't going to open next year cause they change the way they were marketing the season passes. Thats quite a stretch. How about this. Burke has never been in a better or stronger position that it is today. Think about that.

 

[thetrailboss]

How about this. Burke has never been in a better or stronger position that it is today. Think about that.

Hmmmm.....you said that when Ginn ran it. And what happened to them?

 

[Masskier]

So theses sources said this:



Come on. You know that Burke has NEVER been open past the middle of April...and even that is a rare exception.



So you went from saying that "they are definitely starting on the hotel this spring" to "they are breaking ground on the hotel soon". So you agree that there is reason to believe that things are indeed delayed?

Come on TTB, I know that you are a skilled Atty and can make an argument for any side. But is this really relative?

 

[Masskier]

Hmmmm.....you said that when Ginn ran it. And what happened to them?

Yea that is true. Look at the $ Ginn (lubert Adler) pored into Burke. Burke wouldn't be where it is today without that investment.

 

[Masskier]

Ginn Lubert Adler was the biggest game changer that Burke had

 

[VTKilarney]

ie.. aren't you the one that suggested that Burke wasn't going to open next year cause they change the way they were marketing the season passes. Thats quite a stretch. How about this.

I never said that. I merely asked if QBurke, a business that has adopted a hotel building strategy, and had missed goals, was going to throw in the towel. I asked this before buying passes and have purchased passes since then. It was a fair question. I never thought that a mere question would be offensive to you.

It is quite simple. I am on record suggesting that the hotel construction will not commence prior to the beginning of summer. You have stated unequivocally that it will. Let's just see who was proven to be correct.

I'd love to place a friendly bet, if you are willing.

 

[thetrailboss]

Come on TTB, I know that you are a skilled Atty and can make an argument for any side. But is this really relative?

I'll be honest and say I have no idea what you are saying. Relative? Sure it is. I merely quoted verbatim to show that you're saying things left and right. You haven't responded.

Yea that is true. Look at the $ Ginn (lubert Adler) pored into Burke. Burke wouldn't be where it is today without that investment.

No doubt that Burke is better off. That's not the point. I remember you CROWING every single little thing they did and making some pretty ridiculous statements that folks really took you to task for. You also were saying that they were the best thing since sliced bread. My overall point is that Ginn is gone...long gone. What they did was simply not sustainable. Do you know how much red they had their first year? Millions. And Lubert Adler was looking for an exit plan and fast. In no way was Burke "strong" per se. It was struggling.

I think again that folks here were cautiously optimistic. We want to see Burke succeed. Not because we're going to make a buck or two, but because we love the place (it's home for me). You obviously do not have enough experience with Burke to understand why folks are skeptical.

As said, we'll see what happens in a few weeks. Folks are skeptical...we've been before. And you've been on the other side and wrong. When that has happened you disappeared for a while.

 

[VTKilarney]

I think again that folks here were cautiously optimistic. We want to see Burke succeed. Not because we're going to make a buck or two, but because we love the place (it's home for me).

You hit the nail right on the head. Masskier, you need to understand that people in the Northeast Kingdom appreciate honesty. You seem to mistake our well-founded concerns as an indication that we do not wish for Burke to succeed. What you don't understand, is that we've been through five owners in about 25 years - four of whom have gone bankrupt. The other sold the resort as their other assets were being placed into bankruptcy.

I remember when Magic Mountain closed and a friend's condo had its value reduced by half literally overnight. Nobody wants that to happen to Burke. But right now that is a distinct possibility. Burke needs to be smart, not just big. I don't know the answers, but I do know that bullshitting the people that care about the mountain isn't an answer.

Burke could wind up like Ascutney. It could also wind up like Mad River Glen - a ski area that was on the verge of being lost forever that is now healthy thanks to creative solutions to a problem. Just because we don't think along the lines of development at all costs, don't assume that we don't love that mountain.

 

[Masskier]

I never said that. I merely asked if QBurke, a business that has adopted a hotel building strategy, and had missed goals, was going to throw in the towel. I asked this before buying passes and have purchased passes since then. It was a fair question. I never thought that a mere question would be offensive to you.

It is quite simple. I am on record suggesting that the hotel construction will not commence prior to the beginning of summer. You have stated unequivocally that it will. Let's just see who was proven to be correct.

I'd love to place a friendly bet, if you are willing.

You got to be kidding me. You are asking me to gamble?? no thanks I don't gamble Seems to me you said that after you bought your passes, but what difference does it make. The point is with all of the tens of millions that has been invested at Burke and all of plans, designs and permits in hand, they are moving forward with their development. You seem content in arguing that if they start June 22 instead of June 15 that it makes a difference. You may be right, as it was said earlier they may not start till July. would that really change anything? So at least Im glad that you do think that they will build a hotel.

 

[VTKilarney]

You got to be kidding me. You are asking me to gamble?? no thanks I don't gamble Seems to me you said that after you bought your passes, but what difference does it make. The point is with all of the tens of millions that has been invested at Burke and all of plans, designs and permits in hand, they are moving forward with their development. You seem content in arguing that if they start June 22 instead of June 15 that it makes a difference. You may be right, as it was said earlier they may not start till July. would that really change anything? So at least Im glad that you do think that they will build a hotel.

It's really hard to have a discussion with someone who keeps moving the goal posts. Your original "insider information" was that construction would begin just as soon as the ground was solid. You now concede that this is not at all a certainty. And by the way, it's not gambling if you know you are going to win.

I didn't say that I believe the hotel will be built. Here is what I currently believe: (a) They do not have sufficient funds in place to begin construction of the hotel; (b) It remains to be seen whether they will ever have sufficient funds in place. That is all I believe - and nothing more.

One again, I will let time determine which of us is more honest and/or more intelligent regarding Burke. We'll chat on June 22nd.