Big Burke announcement

[burski]

Dave whats your favorite flavor grape or fruit punch? I love your tenacity but your perspective to reality when it comes to Q Burke is laughable - you and the bear path condo guy (or are you one in the same) should get some pom poms... Your adamant defense of all things Q is great - it keeps this thread going.

hopefully Burke works it out, but I am not sure how they increased revenue even if I were to believe skier visits were flat compared to last year (which I doubt). They effectively lowered their ticket price to $45/day starting in early February for the remainder of the season, none of their Q logo'd crap sold in the retail shop, and the restaurant was consistently empty all season. But your right, I believe them, somehow I am sure their revenue grew 10% over last year...

 

[thetrailboss]

Dave whats your favorite flavor grape or fruit punch? I love your tenacity but your perspective to reality when it comes to Q Burke is laughable - you and the bear path condo guy (or are you one in the same) should get some pom poms... Your adamant defense of all things Q is great - it keeps this thread going.

hopefully Burke works it out, but I am not sure how they increased revenue even if I were to believe skier visits were flat compared to last year (which I doubt). They effectively lowered their ticket price to $45/day starting in early February for the remainder of the season, none of their Q logo'd crap sold in the retail shop, and the restaurant was consistently empty all season. But your right, I believe them, somehow I am sure their revenue grew 10% over last year...

I think that the revenue numbers are largely influenced by the weather. Dave pasted the Cal Rec article (thanks, had not seen that) and it said that Burke had a 33% increase in revenue over 2011-2012. Now anyone who skied that season knows that it sucked weather-wise and Burke closed in like mid-March. So yes, I'd HOPE that they did better than that terrible season but I'd attribute the better numbers to more snow than any cost cutting or management efforts. Same could be said for 2012-2013 which I believe got off to a slow start.

 

[Masskier]

I agree that the skiing experience was not really impacted by management with the exception of the snowmaking debacle early on.

Agreed also. And you made a statement earlier about other things that management did that was positive. ie. longer snow making season and extending hours to 5 PM. It really was a great 2nd half of the season.

How about this statement;

" It is now known that Stenger is not coming close to meeting his promise on payback of capital. Phase 1 investors were promised 5 years. They will only get 40% back after 14 years, and are promised a massive balloon payment of 60% of their capital in year 15. Any bets on the likelihood of that balloon payment being made in full?"

Is this something you know as a fact? Earlier I thought you said that you got this info from the internet and you didn't consider it a credible source. If Stenger did indeed default,then why isn't it all over the news?

 

[VTKilarney]

It may not be fact, but it's widely reported and not refuted. Make of that what you will.

 

[Masskier]

Dave whats your favorite flavor grape or fruit punch? I love your tenacity but your perspective to reality when it comes to Q Burke is laughable - you and the bear path condo guy (or are you one in the same) should get some pom poms... Your adamant defense of all things Q is great - it keeps this thread going.

hopefully Burke works it out, but I am not sure how they increased revenue even if I were to believe skier visits were flat compared to last year (which I doubt). They effectively lowered their ticket price to $45/day starting in early February for the remainder of the season, none of their Q logo'd crap sold in the retail shop, and the restaurant was consistently empty all season. But your right, I believe them, somehow I am sure their revenue grew 10% over last year...

Hard to believe but not everyone is doom and gloom. What's the purpose of having a forum if people don't have different perspective on things.

" and the restaurant was consistently empty all season" I'm in the Tamarack at least twice a week. I never saw it empty.

 

[Masskier]

It may not be fact, but it's widely reported and not refuted. Make of that what you will.

Thank you, I didn't think it was a fact. Only because if it was it would be big news

 

[Masskier]

16 Condos sold on Burke in the past year. That is the most condo sales in a long time.

 

[Big Wave Dave]

Dave whats your favorite flavor grape or fruit punch? I love your tenacity but your perspective to reality when it comes to Q Burke is laughable - you and the bear path condo guy (or are you one in the same) should get some pom poms... Your adamant defense of all things Q is great - it keeps this thread going.

hopefully Burke works it out, but I am not sure how they increased revenue even if I were to believe skier visits were flat compared to last year (which I doubt). They effectively lowered their ticket price to $45/day starting in early February for the remainder of the season, none of their Q logo'd crap sold in the retail shop, and the restaurant was consistently empty all season. But your right, I believe them, somehow I am sure their revenue grew 10% over last year...

Burski, idle time and all that!

But I disagree I am blindly defending the Q's. I think their actions on the name change and KT were and are awful. I think EB 5 is deeply flawed, and all the projects are overly ambitious. I think the points I was making about how this is likely marketed to actual investors is being seen as a way to downgrade the Newport new, but it was meant only to reflect what I think is likely occurring, ie segmented pitch's for each element of the NEK plan.

But here is what I also see

I get numbers are fungible but I highly doubt Ari is lying. I am not overly concerned with management snafus or personnel issue like trailboss because, like I said and VT Killarney agreed, the product was mostly good, and I saw nothing to indicate all winter Burke was falling apart at the seams. Just the opposite.

I also don't think it crazy at all they can raise $25mm to build a hotel. I would like a lot more detail on its funding, but this is very do-able. The rest of the Burke project- no chance. Ideally I would love a mad river/magic solution for burke but since we have team Q so be it.

I have zero financial interest in anything related to Burke. But I am skiing their more than Jay S I get older, and also prefer it when skiing with my children and grandchildren.
So I am very much onboard with this discussion.

 

[VTKilarney]

Thank you, I didn't think it was a fact. Only because if it was it would be big news

I did not say that it was not fact. I said that it has not been verified. Do you know if it is incorrect?

Stenger has been tight lipped about it. Don't you think that if the Phase 1 investors got their money back after the promised 5 years Stenger would be letting everyone know?

 

[VTKilarney]

16 Condos sold on Burke in the past year. That is the most condo sales in a long time.

That is meaningless. Price is what matters. I haven't caught wind that there is a fire sale, but only a fool would measure the economic health of the ski area in number of units sold alone.

 

[VTKilarney]

Masskier,

Remember the WCAX story about the British attorney (Korda) who was a Phase I investor in Jay Peak? Remember how he said that, as of November 2013, he still had not gotten his money back? Remember that he now makes money as an EB-5 attorney? Do you think he was lying?

He invested in 2007, and was supposed to get his money back in five years. 2007 + 5 = 2012, right? When was that interview again? Oh, right... late 2013.

Are you still suggesting that the exit strategy went according to what was promised, Masskier?

Seriously. I know that you have economic incentives for Burke to succeed. I don't blame you for wanting to focus on the positive. I would too. But don't treat people here like they are stupid. If Korda figured out how to do business in the EB-5 world and still maintain his integrity by being honest, maybe you can figure it out too.

Maybe this will help refresh your memory: http://www.wcax.com/story/23895536/bu

 

[Masskier]

That is meaningless. Price is what matters. I haven't caught wind that there is a fire sale, but only a fool would measure the economic health of the ski area in number of units sold alone.

Agreed, I only offered that info because it was discussed earlier Sale prices have been going up also.

 

[Big Wave Dave]

So VT Killarney are lots of sales and rising prices....meaningless? And who is measuring anything on solely amount of sales? Awfully combative. Masskier makes an honest point- was their an actual default? The wcax article is silent, but what is being described would indicate investors don't really care if they get paid back! Not sure that's the point your trying to make....

 

[VTKilarney]

The money was promised to be paid back by 2012. As of 2013 it wasn't. That's what they call a default. Not good advertising for future projects. Numerous articles say that investors now care about a return on their investment. You can thank competition for that.

Stenger is now repeating his new mantra: "It's the Feds fault!" http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/...stenger-working-salvage-deal-newport/8780977/

 

[Masskier]

Thanks for the link

Masskier,

"Remember the WCAX story about the British attorney (Korda) who was a Phase I investor in Jay Peak? Remember how he said that, as of November 2013, he still had not gotten his money back? Remember that he now makes money as an EB-5 attorney? Do you think he was lying?"

No of course not. Why would he lie? He never said he expected to be paid back in 5 years. He thinks it is a good program and has help over 250 eb 5 investors.

"He invested in 2007, and was supposed to get his money back in five years. 2007 + 5 = 2012, right? When was that interview again? Oh, right... late 2013."

NO, Where do you get 5 years from??? Watch the video (the copy isn't accurate), at about 2:38 he says " I was willing to trade $500,000 having it tied up for many years with very little return"

"Are you still suggesting that the exit strategy went according to what was promised, Masskier?"

I have no idea because I don't know what the exit strategy is. Do you? If so please elaborate.

"Seriously. I know that you have economic incentives for Burke to succeed. I don't blame you for wanting to focus on the positive. I would too. But don't treat people here like they are stupid. If Korda figured out how to do business in the EB-5 world and still maintain his integrity by being honest, maybe you can figure it out too."

Again thanks for the link. However it doesn't support your statement;

" It is now known that Stenger is not coming close to meeting his promise on payback of capital. Phase 1 investors were promised 5 years."

"

Maybe this will help refresh your memory: http://www.wcax.com/story/23895536/bu

 

[VTKilarney]

Masskier, are you honestly now ignoring the advertisements and promotional materials that promised a 5 year return? Really? Why is it so hard for you to be genuine?

 

[Masskier]

The money was promised to be paid back by 2012. As of 2013 it wasn't. That's what they call a default. Not good advertising for future projects. Numerous articles say that investors now care about a return on their investment. You can thank competition for that.

Stenger is now repeating his new mantra: "It's the Feds fault!" http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/...stenger-working-salvage-deal-newport/8780977/

Would you point us to where you got this info?

"The money was promised to be paid back by 2012"

Because if it is true I would like to know about it.

 

[thetrailboss]

Agreed, I only offered that info because it was discussed earlier Sale prices have been going up also.

So VT Killarney are lots of sales and rising prices....meaningless? And who is measuring anything on solely amount of sales? Awfully combative.

Couple points here. First, the whole "condo sales figure" as an indication of confidence in Burke and Q is attenuated for a number of reasons. First question, are we talking sales up for Calendar Year 2013? If so, remember that most of the recent attention to the problems has come in the last few months. Second, NONE of the condos are owned by Burke or Q--they are all independent operations. Third, there is an assumption made that the main reason for one to buy was because of the way the mountain is being run. I think it's fair to say that may be a factor, but it is not the only one. I have a family member who owns a unit and does the rental pool thing and he told me that his rentals are in fact down. Last, Masskier and Dave are only focusing on the people's motive to buy and don't consider the motivation to sell. True that more people purchased, but more people sold. Why? The market recovering? Not happy with the mountain? Rentals down?

Masskier makes an honest point- was their an actual default? The wcax article is silent, but what is being described would indicate investors don't really care if they get paid back! Not sure that's the point your trying to make....

Come on--investors in the EB-5 program don't want any return on their money or even their investment back? Do you know how dumb that sounds and how that defies business sense? I understand that the point is that folks look to this to get a Green Card, but they would at least like their money back and somewhat of a return. More to the point I think that VT Kilarney's point that the current EB-5 investors ARE expecting a return as well as their Green Card is a very good point. I suppose that some folks only care about the Green Card, but $500k or even $1 million is still a lot of money for the WIDE majority of investors. And the "low hanging fruit" of folks who had $500 k kicking around for a Green Card with no real expectation of anything else have long been harvested.

This is a good discussion, but I laugh at how when folks ask some pretty intuitive questions about what is going on and they are dismissed so out of hand. I think you can't ignore the fact that something seems off and that there is a lot of recent media scrutiny that should not be dismissed as just "doom and gloom." Folks here like a good discussion and the real dirt and that's what makes it great. We are going to question things as we should.

And nobody seems to be questioning Tony Pomerleau's assessment of the situation.

 

[thetrailboss]

Would you point us to where you got this info?

"The money was promised to be paid back by 2012"

Because if it is true I would like to know about it.

Can you comment as to how the EB-5 investors are making out at Jay?

 

[Masskier]

Masskier, are you honestly now ignoring the advertisements and promotional materials that promised a 5 year return? Really? Why is it so hard for you to be genuine?

No, I have no idea what you are talking about. Please give me a link??