Emerging signal for storminess for the end of January

[BenedictGomez]

Who think will get the most snow region wise?

North Atlantic commercial fisherman.

 

[Savemeasammy]

North Atlantic commercial fisherman.

Funny as hell! Heartbreaking... but funny!


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[Boston Bulldog]

Patience guys. This pattern is like dynamite, something is going to blow. Looks like this event just wasn't the one.

As long as the atmosphere is bursting at the seams with energy, which it will be for the foreseeable future, there will be legitimate hope.

Hell the pattern doesn't really even arrive until the 23-24th, we're just beginning the transition.

 

[MadMadWorld]

I appreciate your optimism but this forum has some of most impatient folks I have ever met.....I'm probably the worst!

 

[Boston Bulldog]

I appreciate your optimism but this forum has some of most impatient folks I have ever met.....I'm probably the worst!

Trust me, I'm in the same boat as you. I need my snow fix BAD. We're all in this together and patience will be rewarded. (I hope) let's try and keep it together.

 

[twinplanx]

I don't ever understand half the weather related terminology BG says.

Yeah it does challenge the amuture meteorologist in me. I used to be able to watch The Weather Channel for hours on end, but they've dumbed it down so much it's unbearable. John Hope must be turning in his grave :-( RIP Sir.

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[ss20]

n00b question here, but where can I get the Euro, GFS, and other models you guys talk about and post. I wanna get "in the know" on some of this.

 

[reppshred]

n00b question here, but where can I get the Euro, GFS, and other models you guys talk about and post. I wanna get "in the know" on some of this.

I second that!

 

[BenedictGomez]

n00b question here, but where can I get the Euro, GFS, and other models you guys talk about and post. I wanna get "in the know" on some of this.

I second that!

Follow as many professional mets on Twitter and FB as you can. Read a ton of what they post and try to digest it. Probably having a science background does help, but you can learn this stuff if you pay close enough attention and really WANT to learn. Perhaps join a weather forum or two.

As for the models, just look at what's posted and try to pick up on what's said. Then, after a while, start running the models yourself and try to predict what's going on BEFORE you read the FB and Twitter posts. I felt that helped me a lot because chances are 90% you'll be wrong, but by being wrong I learned quicker (I'm not sure that makes any sense, but I learn a lot by failing). Learn each of the models known biases for northeast winter storms. At the end of the day, I still know next to nothing, and will never know much about weather given I didnt study it in school, but I know enough now that I'm pretty comfortable at least seeing the basics, and for my interest (skiing) the basics are good-enough-for-government-work.

 

[4aprice]

One thing that is for sure is the cold is coming. A good period of it too. Snowmaking should be in good shape in a few days. Lots of snow potential even if no huge events.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[MadMadWorld]

One thing that is for sure is the cold is coming. A good period of it too. Snowmaking should be in good shape in a few days. Lots of snow potential even if no huge events.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

After everything that has happened over the last week or so this is definitely a win for the ski industry.

 

[bzrperfspec77]

One thing that is for sure is the cold is coming. A good period of it too. Snowmaking should be in good shape in a few days. Lots of snow potential even if no huge events.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

What do you mean!? Is there a snow potential for the upper west bum-f$%#$ of Canada? What about the northern tip of Maine? Maybe the southwest Pocono's? I need to know where to ski when this "snow potential" hits, regardless of size... Sorry. I'm getting sick of reading on here about people asking about storm(s) a week out and where the snow is going to be best...

Just be happy we have guru's on here that offer insight on the charts/graphs/models and know of blogs where we can get some hope/nope. Thanks guys for the insight! I'm always glued to these threads and pretend to my buddies that I know what I'm talking about when I copy what you are saying! Thanks! :beer:

 

[Tin]

I'm saving my money and sick/vacation time until things get rolling. Crazy to see the Bear Mt Cam at K with bare spots, next to no natural snow left at Smuggs, and the Stowe trail report makes me want to puke. Might just use the season pass at Crotched the next few weekends to keep the legs going. Bring on February already, we are due to see a 61" in 6 days or 36" in 36 hours type event again.

 

[billski]

Yes!

Good news! I have gone to the source of all snow forecasts for a reading.

I called the small engine repair shop yesterday about bringing my lawn mower in for some engine work. He told me not to bother right now, he's not doing any lawn equipment. He has a two-week backlog of snowblowers. He says "we're in between storms" and will have more snowblower work to do. I should call back at the end of March.

Well, we finally have the authoritative word on this winter!

 

[drjeff]

I liked the analogy one of my local TV mets made this morning about why the potential is there, but it won't happen this weekend: (paraphrasing here) this weekend if we were trying to bake a snowstorm cake, we'd have all the proper ingredients out on the counter to do so, but the ingredients won't get mixed together in the bowl!

I thought that summed it up well!

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[4aprice]

What do you mean!? Is there a snow potential for the upper west bum-f$%#$ of Canada? What about the northern tip of Maine? Maybe the southwest Pocono's? I need to know where to ski when this "snow potential" hits, regardless of size... Sorry. I'm getting sick of reading on here about people asking about storm(s) a week out and where the snow is going to be best...

I mean its going to get cold. (for a good 2 to 3 week span from what I've read) As far as the snow potential that can't be seen. (many times till any energy actually makes it on shore, and that's usually 3 days from the east coast) But with this kind of cold its either going to be snow or dry. 10 day ECMWF had a good snow for most of the northeast a couple of days ago and CFS v2 has snow OTG for the Super Bowl. Time will tell if they are correct with that but the models do see the cold coming.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

 

[billski]

n00b question here, but where can I get the Euro, GFS, and other models you guys talk about and post. I wanna get "in the know" on some of this.

Models? You want models?
The mother of all references is the E-wall, but you'll need to go to school!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html
Earl has a lot of good charts, but none of the come with instructions. wxcaster is becoming my go-to site for info.
http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm
NOAA
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/
Unisys - Euro
http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/
COLA - NAM, GFS
http://wxmaps.org/pix/forecasts.html

Few of these charts come with training wheels or instructions. Buyer beware.

 

[bzrperfspec77]

I mean its going to get cold. (for a good 2 to 3 week span from what I've read) As far as the snow potential that can't be seen. (many times till any energy actually makes it on shore, and that's usually 3 days from the east coast) But with this kind of cold its either going to be snow or dry. 10 day ECMWF had a good snow for most of the northeast a couple of days ago and CFS v2 has snow OTG for the Super Bowl. Time will tell if they are correct with that but the models do see the cold coming.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

I was joking with my above response :razz:

 

[ScottySkis]

What do you mean!? Is there a snow potential for the upper west bum-f$%#$ of Canada? What about the northern tip of Maine? Maybe the southwest Pocono's? I need to know where to ski when this "snow potential" hits, regardless of size... Sorry. I'm getting sick of reading on here about people asking about storm(s) a week out and where the snow is going to be best...

Just be happy we have guru's on here that offer insight on the charts/graphs/models and know of blogs where we can get some hope/nope. Thanks guys for the insight! I'm always glued to these threads and pretend to my buddies that I know what I'm talking about when I copy what you are saying! Thanks! :beer:

I miss Winnchill he offered me great forecasting in past years and was correct more then 90% of the time.

 

[moresnow]

I miss Winnchill he offered me great forecasting in past years and was correct more then 90% of the time.

90% of the time??!?!? Do you have a link to back that up? :roll: