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Epic Pass just got more Epic
- Thread starter gmcunni
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dlague
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Good point Ikon pass sales projections 250,000 passed Epic Pass (all versions) 925,000. Last year Vail hit 950,000 passes sold.
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On the flip side, I wonder if the transient skiers (who, for example, use up all their IKON days at partner resorts) tend to spend more additional money per day while there. (Do they need lodging, buy lunch, replace forgotten gloves etc etc at a much higher rate than a pass holder for that particular resort).
To me it might make sense that a "full time" pass holder for a resort is more likely to be established with lodging already, more equipped to pack lunch, less likely to forget gloves or goggles at their home, than the person who has 7 days at a variety of resorts and moves from one to the next.
In other words, who is more profitable for a resort, the season pass holder who skis 40 days, packs a lunch on most of them, never needs lodging, keeps all his gear at his place near the mountain or the IKON skier who comes 7 days a year, always buys lunch, might need lodging, maybe has to buy a piece of gear etc etc?
skitheeast45
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Ikon and Epic have both had similar crowding effects even though Epic sold almost four times as many passes. It honestly depends on the existing market and the previous offerings. I think A-Basin will go to either Mountain Collective or will team up with Loveland and offer a Continental Divide pass. They could theoretically offer a free shuttle between the two resorts to help with the parking issues (it's only a 15-20 min drive) that have plagued A-Basin this year.
A) Smaller ski resorts, including those out of business.
B) Meh... Public companies definitely can't lie about these numbers, and private companies can twist them but straight up lying would be bad PR.
C) In 1990/91, there were 569 ski resorts in the US. 2017/18 had 472. Even in a scenario with zero growth in total visits, that's almost 20% fewer mountains for the same number of skiers.
D) The increase in development of ski-in/ski-out or within walking distance real estate has had a small, but somewhat noticeable impact. Skiers are able to wake up at the same time and be on the mountain earlier and until later. Also, with day pass prices increasing and fewer mountains offering limited hour passes (such as an afternoon or evening only pass), skiers feel inclined to ski more hours to make the day worth the price of admission.
E) High speed lifts are a small contributor. Even though a high speed quad carries the same total number of skiers per hour as a fixed grip quad, riders spend about half as much time on the lift and are then able to ski more laps, which is more time on the trail, which leads to more pileup at the base of lifts, etc. Also, more people want to ride a high speed lift compared to a fixed grip and they will tend to cluster disproportionally (meaning a parable fixed grip may have a lower ride time including lift line). This has sometimes resulted in ski resorts removing secondary lifts and some capacity.
Also the advent of "cut the line" passes at some mountains increase lines. If an average wait time is 5 minutes and there are 10 skiers, there will be 50 minutes of total wait time needed for 10 skiers to load the chair. Now, if just one of those skiers has a wait time of 0 minutes because he cuts the line with his pass, the other nine skiers need to now wait an average 5.5 minutes, which is a 10% increase. There are studies that have been done on the effect FastPass has had on ride wait times at Disney, and this is the same exact concept.
F) This has been an excellent winter out West and there was a good early season in the Northeast (hopefully good March in store as well). This should lead to skier visitation numbers above preseason expectations.
I didn't mean they were lying about numbers. I'm referring more to accuracy due to technology changes. Today we can get an exact skier visit count of each season passholder thanks to scanning of passes. 20 years ago we didn't have that and resorts often had to roughly estimate the number of skier visits per season pass.
Yes, but the number of mountains alone is not the key. Many of those were smaller mountains. You'd need to ideally look at the reduction in uphill capacity or something like that as a result of those ski resort closures which could change it to only a 5% reduction that needed to be redistributed elsewhere. Spread that over 472 resorts and the impact would be minimal.
skitheeast45
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https://www.jhnewsandguide.com/news/town_county/article_74e0e79c-ed83-5a4f-b5b6-408b365126b0.html
Jackson Hole with some hard data regarding Ikon effect.
Jackson Hole with some hard data regarding Ikon effect.
AdironRider
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Living here, all of those Ikon visits have happened in the last six weeks or so. I expect that when all is said and done this season, it will end up being closer to 20-25%.
What was really amazing, is that crowds were lighter this past holiday weekend than the previous 4 or so. I have never seen that happen where holiday crowd numbers actually decrease. All due to Ikon blackouts.
Jully
Active member
Less than a 14% increase, probably actually around 10% due to Ikon really isn't that bad in my book. It seems to me, at Jackson Hole at least, that the complaining about lines and resort crowds has been a thing for years as the resort experiences significant growth (3 record skier visit years in the past 5).
Ikon just gives the crowds a name to yell in frustration. There's no saying that Jackson wouldn't have 8% higher skier visits this year without the Ikon too.
Jully
Active member
If that is true then I take back my other post. 20-25% would be a legit increase due to just one pass product and not offset that much by declining ticket sales.
gladerider
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jackson hole grew so much over the last 2 decades. during my last visit, i checked the real estate listing and i was shocked how expensive the houses were.
reading the comments on the bottom of that article, i noticed that the unhappy locals think that these ikon pass holders have access to their mountain for free. i have an ikon pass. i don't think each day i visit is free. yes, i bought cheap lift tickets, but not free.
this is an industry trend. they can't really do anything about it. with increased skier days, the resort revenues go up. it is a simple economics.
looks like the resort has some work to do if the visitors are saying they won't come back.
reading the comments on the bottom of that article, i noticed that the unhappy locals think that these ikon pass holders have access to their mountain for free. i have an ikon pass. i don't think each day i visit is free. yes, i bought cheap lift tickets, but not free.
this is an industry trend. they can't really do anything about it. with increased skier days, the resort revenues go up. it is a simple economics.
looks like the resort has some work to do if the visitors are saying they won't come back.
Jully
Active member
Hadn't looked at the comments. Some are hilarious. They're talking about "free" days everywhere on the pass... that is what the pass is - a bunch of days at a bunch of places.
At its core it is an interesting concept though - maybe in future years Jackson may demand fewer days on Ikon. Who knows if 4 v. 7 days actually would decrease the number of people there on Ikon. I feel like the average ski vacation does not include more than 4 days of skiing.
Well, not necessarily. I doubt that the "revenue share" is very significant for the partner resorts. A lot of the non-Alterra resorts are banking on increased traffic meaning more food and beverage revenue, lodging revenue, or other services to make up for the fact that Ikon or Epic Passholders aren't paying full window rate. And at least from what I have seen and heard from staff, these pass visitors aren't buying food or lodging to make up for the discount. So revenues are only up slightly while traffic is up. Plus, a lot of these deals are reciprocal deals...so as a Snowbird passholder I get X free days at Solitude or wherever. So Snowbird uses that to market to me and to get me to buy a Snowbird pass. This is another reason why Ikon, for example, doesn't have to pay Snowbird a lot for a passholder to ski for a day.
The bigger issue is that folks like me pay full freight for a resort pass and are now getting less of a quality experience because the place is getting flooded by people skiing their "free days" on a discounted pass at another resort. So what is starting to happen at places like A-Basin, Jackson Hole, and Alta-Bird is that the resort passholders are getting upset at the resort for the wheeling and dealing. The point that the anger is displaced onto the Ikon/Epic Passholders is accurate. The real problem is the resort management for not getting the balance right.
And on another note the sense of entitlement from the "local" Jackson Hole skiers is simply breathtaking.
gladerider
Active member
are you saying that the resort revenues are not up due to increased traffic? i don't buy that. i don't have any facts and it is purely an assumption of mine, but increased traffic has to have a net positive impact on the revenue and i am not talking about revenue sharing.
i don't see how a skier visiting a resort cannot spend any money. i would think that it is the pass holders who do not spend any money on the resort other than their passes.
time will tell. where i come from, it's all about the $. if JHMR comes off of the ikon in the next few years, that would be because they are not seeing the net positive impact on their bottom line. if they stay, they are experiencing the net positive impact. time will tell.
regarding the sense of entitlement you mentioned. yes. there certainly is a vibe of exclusivity. with the real estate so highly priced, i don't know where all the workers live. i bet they come from far away each day or cram into places.
Sure, revenue is up, but not as much as you think. For example, if you have 50 more skiers coming, but they are not buying any food, beverages, or lessons, then you have 50 more bodies on the slopes, but not necessarily the full amount of revenue potential that you planned. Resorts actually use a formula based on their skier days to project how much revenue they will make. So in this case, if I am a manager, I am banking on these folks to enjoy their "free day" but then to buy a couple beers or to grab some souvenirs, or in other words to generate me more money on this skier day to recoup my loss on not getting the rack rate on the skier or rider. And, anectdotally at least to this point, it sounds as if this "other" revenue is not happening. And the question is if the ski area is losing business from someone who either would buy a season pass or pay full freight but now won't because the lines are too long or the parking lot is too full and they drive on to the next place.
So sure, for example if Alterra is paying you $30 for the day, you have $1,500 more in revenue. But honestly you want those 50 people to buy other things to make more money. The issue is if it is worth the crowding, wear and tear, increased demands on infrastructure to bring in that minimal amount of money. Some are now saying it is not. It will be interesting to see if any resorts do change the Ikon/Epic reciprocal deals.
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AdironRider
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Allegedly Jackson gets 80-82 bucks a day. AND Vail offered more to be on Epic but the owners hate Vail so told them to pound sand.
Retail and F&B are down revenue wise despite the increase in visits. Exactly how much my source would not say. The juice is not worth the squeeze when you give up the customer that will spend 5k on a new ski kit when they arrive and then literally leave it in their Four Seasons room when they depart in trade for a couple brown bag 25 year old bros from Colorado that stay in the Motel 6. 80% of the skier visits is better if they spend buku bucks.
Call it entitlement, but when you go from being the premier resort in the country to taking anyone and their mother who shows up is going to change the locals opinion. We had a great thing here, and now it is changing. No one likes it when things change from great to _________. That being said, there are some dudes who do take a bit to far. It is just skiing and Jackson's terrain hasn't changed. It is still rad, just different.
I got yelled at last weekend by a 60 year old lady for skiing fast 50 yards away from her. People ski fast in Jackson? Who'd a thunk that? We had a great system for lift mazes, now its just a bunch of ikoners cutting lines. This never happened before.
We are also in a major housing crunch and there is no staff to handle this increase in people. The product has suffered as a result. No one likes this.
I suspect the Ikon is going to get more expensive for less days to try and even this stuff out.
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Bingo.
Do you think that is a reliable number? If one person uses all 7 of their JH days, that would nearly eat up the price of the Ikon pass and not leave much for Alterra themselves (or for any other resorts that Ikon days are used at).
I could definitely see the structure changing next year. This was the first year so a lot to learn on how to do it right.
gladerider
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time will tell
gmcunni
Active member
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