Epic Pass just got more Epic

[BenedictGomez]

More Epic
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My belief is the MTN domestic organic growth is likely drying up, and they need to "search" for growth internationally. The company has not done well recently & shed something like 1/3 of its' stock price.

I also suspect they're feeling the crunch of others getting into their season pass game and starting to put a not insignificant dent in their bread & butter. If the MTN margin starts to drop, it will point to my being correct, but time will tell. Personally I HATE these pass wars & the artificially high single day ticket prices they've created, which I believe is negative for the entire sport of alpine skiing long-term, so I am actively rooting for MTN to fail. I was glad to see Arapahoe Basin bolt, but it will mean nothing if they simply join a different mega-pass in 2019/20.

 

[Zermatt]

Somebody please explain how Jackson gets $80 a day for my Ikon visits? (Note, I think I paid $599 for my Ikon Pass)

In reality I believe they receive next to nothing for a visit so in the view of somebody that paid for a full season pass my Ikon visits are "free". That would bother the crap out of me if I had a full pass as a local. Ironically, their jobs and entire winter economy is based on skier visits so they need to find the right balance.

 

[drjeff]

Somebody please explain how Jackson gets $80 a day for my Ikon visits? (Note, I think I paid $599 for my Ikon Pass)

In reality I believe they receive next to nothing for a visit so in the view of somebody that paid for a full season pass my Ikon visits are "free". That would bother the crap out of me if I had a full pass as a local. Ironically, their jobs and entire winter economy is based on skier visits so they need to find the right balance.

I wonder if it's more like Jackson, as a "premiere name" resort on the Ikon pass, gets $80 per Ikon scanned at their resort regardless of if the passholder uses it 1 time or the max number of times, rather than $80 for each day each Ikon pass is scanned at the resort?

 

[AdironRider]

Somebody please explain how Jackson gets $80 a day for my Ikon visits? (Note, I think I paid $599 for my Ikon Pass)

In reality I believe they receive next to nothing for a visit so in the view of somebody that paid for a full season pass my Ikon visits are "free". That would bother the crap out of me if I had a full pass as a local. Ironically, their jobs and entire winter economy is based on skier visits so they need to find the right balance.

Well Jackson and Aspen are the premier resorts on the pass. It is not unreasonable to think they get a much higher daily rate than say Sunday River, which totally relies purely on volume of skier visits to make their money, both pre and post Ikon.

Ikon is betting on people not spending a full 7 days in Jackson or Aspen and a whole lot more days at Winter Park. I suspect they underestimated the volume of use it would get. Despite this, even if they pay 80 bucks for each 100K additional skier visit that is still only 8 million on 8800 passes or so. That isn't a lot ultimately. We'll see when pricing comes out.

8 million buys you a mid-level ski place in Jackson. It isn't a lot of money to ruin the reputation of a resort worth probably a billion dollars.

 

[AdironRider]

Do you think that is a reliable number? If one person uses all 7 of their JH days, that would nearly eat up the price of the Ikon pass and not leave much for Alterra themselves (or for any other resorts that Ikon days are used at).



I could definitely see the structure changing next year. This was the first year so a lot to learn on how to do it right.

It is a small town ultimately. I trust my source but it could be different, but I doubt by much. I do know that at 154 a day it is barely above wholesale.

 

[thetrailboss]

Ikon is betting on people not spending a full 7 days in Jackson or Aspen and a whole lot more days at Winter Park. I suspect they underestimated the volume of use it would get. Despite this, even if they pay 80 bucks for each 100K additional skier visit that is still only 8 million on 8800 passes or so. That isn't a lot ultimately. We'll see when pricing comes out.

Exactly. I think there will be an adjustment this coming season.

8 million buys you a mid-level ski place in Jackson. It isn't a lot of money to ruin the reputation of a resort worth probably a billion dollars.

I agree.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Somebody please explain how Jackson gets $80 a day for my Ikon visits? (Note, I think I paid $599 for my Ikon Pass)

In reality I believe they receive next to nothing for a visit so in the view of somebody that paid for a full season pass my Ikon visits are "free". That would bother the crap out of me if I had a full pass as a local. Ironically, their jobs and entire winter economy is based on skier visits so they need to find the right balance.

Yeah, there is no chance that that is factually correct, it simply doesnt work. The concept Dr. Jeff laid out is far more reasonable, though I'd suggest it too is likely not reality.

 

[cdskier]

Yeah, there is no chance that that is factually correct, it simply doesnt work. The concept Dr. Jeff laid out is far more reasonable, though I'd suggest it too is likely not reality.

I agree. I find it difficult anyone in the finance department at Alterra would have signed off on giving JH (or anyone) a relatively high fixed amount per day and simply "hoping" that not too many JH days were used in order to make the financial numbers work. There's way too much risk involved with that. I can absolutely see JH getting a significantly larger amount per day than other resorts such as Sunday River, Killington, Sugarbush, etc. But I still think it either needs to have a maximum ceiling built in (i.e. we'll give you $80 a day up to a maximum of 1000 days) or be some sort of weighted percentage sharing. Alterra had to somehow protect themselves from the possibility of a lot of days being used in one place.

Definitely will be interesting to see the pricing and structure for next season. Of course if they want to continue to market themselves as an alternative to Epic however, then I don't think they can substantially change the price. Reducing the number of days at partner resorts (or even just certain partner resorts) seems likely though.

 

[AdironRider]

Yeah, there is no chance that that is factually correct, it simply doesnt work. The concept Dr. Jeff laid out is far more reasonable, though I'd suggest it too is likely not reality.

Come on Bene, do the math. Even if Alterra sells half the amount of passes as the Epic, and all of them were the 599 pass, and Jackson gets 120K Ikon visits, that is still under 4% of overall pass revenue. That is worst case scenario for the Alterra/Jackson relationship. Even if that happened at all the partner resorts, that still leaves over 100 million in Alterras pocket to run the resorts they own, before even touching other revenue streams like f&b, retail and lessons.

The numbers absolutely work for Alterra in the sense there is no way they are losing money. I think they are going to raise the cost primarily because the demand justifies it and they want more profit, which I suspect is not at the level they want.

The real question is do the numbers work for Jackson, which I think given the loud and numerous complaints they are getting here locally, they don't.

 

[Zermatt]

The real question is do the numbers work for Jackson, which I think given the loud and numerous complaints they are getting here locally, they don't.

So it doesn't work for Jackson, it doesn't work for Alta/Snowbird...and who else? Aspen, Deer Valley?

Then who is left? I have a feeling 19/20 will be very different.

 

[machski]

So it doesn't work for Jackson, it doesn't work for Alta/Snowbird...and who else? Aspen, Deer Valley?

Then who is left? I have a feeling 19/20 will be very different.

Aspen and Deer Valley are staying on the Ikon, they are a part of Alterra after all (just considered their Elite or Luxury group, thus the no unlimited days on Ikon).

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[thetrailboss]

Aspen and Deer Valley are staying on the Ikon, they are a part of Alterra after all (just considered their Elite or Luxury group, thus the no unlimited days on Ikon).

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Right. Alterra owns Deer Valley. Aspen is an owner of Alterra. It is a bit confusing. Alterra is a merger of KSL and Crown. Crown owns Aspen IIRC.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Come on Bene, do the math. Even if Alterra sells half the amount of passes as the Epic, and all of them were the 599 pass, and Jackson gets 120K Ikon visits, that is still under 4% of overall pass revenue. That is worst case scenario for the Alterra/Jackson relationship. Even if that happened at all the partner resorts, that still leaves over 100 million in Alterras pocket to run the resorts they own, before even touching other revenue streams like f&b, retail and lessons.

I thought I read somewhere IKON is only running at about 25% of EPIC numbers, but maybe I'm misremembering. At any rate, $80 a pop is too much. I cannot believe JH would be given that much juice and other resorts accept merely "a drop of juice" by comparison. If JH were the 1 premier option on that pass, I could understand it in a plausible loss-leader marketing fashion, but there are plenty of fantastic IKON resorts already that I dont see why passing JH a huge portion of pass sales to those who ski there would be that necessary.

 

[AdironRider]

Dude seriously, do the math. Alterra brought in a couple hundred million dollars from this pass. They can front the cash. It isn't unlimited to Jackson at 80 bucks per visit, they capped it for a reason.

You are basically just stating your opinion, which in this case, you have nothing to base off of other than your gut. I know their wholesale numbers, 80 is right in line with lift tickets being the better part of 160 bucks.

Jackson, and Aspen, have always been in another league compared to any other resort in the country. They are going to get more. These are the premier resorts in the country, if not the world, and you are talking about them like Sugarloaf and Loon are direct competitors. Places like that SHOULD be getting a lot less. The market has already determined this prior to Ikon. You think the ownership of Jackson was like, sure give me the same rate as Loon? Please.

It sure feels like they are slumming it with the Ikon clientele. Maybe they are just trying to fluff overall skier visits to maximize the resorts value prior to selling the joint, which is the other rumor floating around the tram dock.....

 

[BenedictGomez]

Dude seriously, do the math. Alterra brought in a couple hundred million dollars from this pass. They can front the cash. It isn't unlimited to Jackson at 80 bucks per visit, they capped it for a reason.

You are basically just stating your opinion, which in this case, you have nothing to base off of other than your gut. I know their wholesale numbers, 80 is right in line with lift tickets being the better part of 160 bucks.

I never said I'm absolutely correct, I just think your rumor is likely false. Is it possible your $80 figure is right? Sure. The math you lay out is not impossible, I just see it as completely unnecessary for Alterra to pay that much. This coincides with the fact that I dispute your belief that Jackson Hole is the most desirable ski destination in The Milky Way Galaxy. Jackson Hole is high volume, but it sees fewer skier visits than several western resorts that are already on IKON (Mammoth, Steamboat, etc). Again, possible? Sure. But if so I have no idea why Alterra would want JH so bad that it would literally give away most of its' pass revenue every time someone vacations there. Seems neither likely, nor logical.

 

[AdironRider]

Yeah ok, Jackson isn't considered a premier ski area now? We can nit pick the number 1 place in the country but you are probably the first person that wouldn't consider it in the running.

You cannot see why Alterra wouldn't want a couple jewels in their crown? Winter park is great and all but not exactly worth bragging about.

 

[machski]

Look, bottom line is partner resorts on Ikon DO make revenue from each day used at their resorts. I know this because I asked the question at SR that where I am a Gold NE passholder and an Ikon base passholder, is there a financial incentive for the mountain to use my 5 days off the Ikon. The answer was yes.

Now, I don't know what that revenue $ is per day, I didn't ask for specifics as I figured I wouldn't get those. It may not be huge, but there is something for the partner resorts. They are not just getting flooded by Ikon passes and not getting a dime from the visit

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[Smellytele]

Quit bitching and ski somewhere else. If you protest with your wallet then they might see what multi-resort passes are doing. Bitching here will lead to nothing. WAAAAHHHHH!

 

[Jully]

Look, bottom line is partner resorts on Ikon DO make revenue from each day used at their resorts. I know this because I asked the question at SR that where I am a Gold NE passholder and an Ikon base passholder, is there a financial incentive for the mountain to use my 5 days off the Ikon. The answer was yes.

Now, I don't know what that revenue $ is per day, I didn't ask for specifics as I figured I wouldn't get those. It may not be huge, but there is something for the partner resorts. They are not just getting flooded by Ikon passes and not getting a dime from the visit

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Haha so if I wanted to give more money to SR I should use my Ikon days there (also SR passholder and Ikon)?

 

[drjeff]

Sounds like the underlying thing is that if folks like multi resort passes with resort collaboration verses single company ownership, that buying a burger and a beer or 3 at the resort might help convince the collaboration resort GM's/Owners to stay part of the collaboration verses getting out since the revenue gain isn't commensurate with the added skier visits....

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