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first real storm?

icecoast1

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The models have been all over the place and changing frequently, but those fortunate enough to actually be able to ski in New England this weekend could get quite lucky
 

drjeff

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My hunch is that in the end, this storm, like many a November/December storm, will look big on the models, but when the reality of all the relatively warm influence from the Atlantic really starts kicking in, that the say 10:1 inches of snow to inch of water modeling that many of the models tend to use, will end up probably being half that, and you'll see snowfall totals varying widely between base and Summit. Just not a lot of really cold air around ahead of time to fight off the warming influences the Ocean will bring into this system right now.

Seems to happen most years until say Early January when the Ocean surface temps get generally down into the 30's near the coast
 

ss20

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Rapidly shifting East on all models. Latest Euro had a NH/Maine special but it's further West than anyone. GFS shifted wayyyyy west to mimic the last running of the Euro but it's been essentially a fish storm so we'll call the last run an outlier for now.

SR has a decent shot at 6"+, everyone else it's still a crapshoot. I'm comfortable predicting the ADKs, Cats, and VT are all out of it with NH as borderline. Doubt anyone in VT gets any substantial snow (6"). Magic has the best chance of getting the most snow with it being south and east of the spine but they're not open lol. Burke is also far east but they're not open either.

Wachusett could get 2" of rain or a foot+ of snow.
 

2Planker

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Slapping the ole ME plates on the Winniebago tonight.

Nothing like parking front row at 10pm Fri :)
 

Zand

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Didn't we learn our lesson last year about posting storm threads? Stop jinxing them dammit.
 

Dickc

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Didn't we learn our lesson last year about posting storm threads? Stop jinxing them dammit.
I cannot ski (yet), and I have NOT started my snowblower to check it yet. I should get all rain

(anti-jinx, anti-jinx)
 

ss20

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Rapidly shifting East on all models. Latest Euro had a NH/Maine special but it's further West than anyone. GFS shifted wayyyyy west to mimic the last running of the Euro but it's been essentially a fish storm so we'll call the last run an outlier for now.

SR has a decent shot at 6"+, everyone else it's still a crapshoot. I'm comfortable predicting the ADKs, Cats, and VT are all out of it with NH as borderline. Doubt anyone in VT gets any substantial snow (6"). Magic has the best chance of getting the most snow with it being south and east of the spine but they're not open lol. Burke is also far east but they're not open either.

Wachusett could get 2" of rain or a foot+ of snow.

NOAA agrees with Chief AZ Meteorologist ss20...jackpot is gonna be Burke.

1607141107149.png
 

chuckstah

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Burke? Nah. Think Wildcat, SR, Sugarloaf, even Cannon for the win. It could be even further south in NH.
 

ss20

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Burke? Nah. Think Wildcat, SR, Sugarloaf, even Cannon for the win. It could be even further south in NH.

Yeah I should've clarified for VT. Wildcat and SR gonna get womped. Makes me think of a Cannon, Wildcat, SR trip I did a couple years ago. The Wildcat-SR-Abram combination is massively underrated. Got your nasty terrain, snowmaking powerhouse, and your Saturday local hill escape.
 

chuckstah

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Yeah I should've clarified for VT. Wildcat and SR gonna get womped. Makes me think of a Cannon, Wildcat, SR trip I did a couple years ago. The Wildcat-SR-Abram combination is massively underrated. Got your nasty terrain, snowmaking powerhouse, and your Saturday local hill escape.
That's a great combo. Throw in either Black.
 
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