Global warming done for now?

[ed-drum]

The Earth got warmer due to increased sunspot activity in the '90's. There were no sunspots in August, the first time of this since records were started in the early 1700's. The Arctic ice cap increased 13% in 2008, the size of Germany. Australia had record cold last summer. China was paralyzed by blizzards. Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. The polar ice caps on Mars receded as well. I suppose the Martian SUV's caused this too. The next thing they're going to say is that Osama Bin Missing caused global warming.

 

[danny p]

i look at it more like we are simply TRASHING this planet, which is a beautiful gift that I (and most skiers/riders/nature enthusiasts) truly appreciate. It's puking snow right outside my window right now, the catskills and the river look beautiful and I can't imagine living without them or with them in a decayed state. Thats enough of a reason for me to try living more responsibly as an individual. I don't get into the GW, CC debates. Respect our habitat.

 

[twinplanx]

i look at it more like we are simply TRASHING this planet, which is a beautiful gift that I (and most skiers/riders/nature enthusiasts) truly appreciate. It's puking snow right outside my window right now, the catskills and the river look beautiful and I can't imagine living without them or with them in a decayed state. Thats enough of a reason for me to try living more responsibly as an individual. I don't get into the GW, CC debates. Respect our habitat.

Word! I just wish more people shared this attitude.

So we've had a few cold days around here. Is that a reason to start drilling in the Arctic?:uzi:

If your not recycling your throwing it all away.

 

[loafer89]

Per the NSIDC:

The combined global land and ocean surface average temperature for October 2008 was the second warmest since records began in 1880, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.
Temperature Highlights

• The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for October was 58.23 degrees F — 1.13 degrees F above the 20th century mean of 57.1 degrees F.

• Separately, the global land surface temperature was 50.72 degrees F — 2.02 degrees F above the 20th century mean of 48.7 degrees F, ranking as the warmest October on record. Much of the unusual warmth occurred over Asia, Australia, and Eastern Europe.

• The global ocean surface temperature of 61.41 degrees F tied October 2005 as sixth warmest on record and was 0.81 degree F above the 20th century mean of 60.6 degrees F.

• The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for January-October was 58.25 degrees F – 0.85 degree above the 20th century mean of 57.4 degrees F and ranking as the 9th warmest January-October on record.

Global Highlights for October

• Arctic sea ice coverage during October was at its third lowest extent since satellite records began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Average ice extent during October was 3.24 million square miles, which is 9.5 percent below the 1979-2000 average. The record lowest extent for October, set in 2007, was 2.55 million square miles. Arctic sea ice extent has been declining by an average of 5.4 percent per decade over the past 30 years.

• Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during October 2008 was 6.48 million square miles, which is below the 1967-2008 average and ranks as the ninth lowest October extent.

• In early October, Hurricane Norbert became the most powerful 2008 hurricane in the eastern Pacific when it reached Category 4 strength. The storm weakened when it struck Mexico’s southern Baja California on October 11, but still brought heavy rain, strong winds, and widespread flooding to the islands of Santa Margarita and Magdelena. Norbert tracked across the Gulf of California and made a second landfall on October 12 on the Mexican mainland Sonora Coast.

• Hurricane Omar developed in the Caribbean Sea on October 13. Omar reached Category 3 strength and was the first hurricane to strike the Leeward Islands from the west since Hurricane Lenny in 1999.

• In the western Pacific, slow-moving Tropical Storm 22W brought torrential rains to parts of Southeast Asia. On October 11-14, the South China island province of Hainan suffered flash floods in low-lying areas that forced thousands of people to flee more than 150 villages. The storm’s rains affected northern Vietnam during October 15-20, triggering flash floods that damaged more than 11,000 hectares of crops. Daily rainfall amounts of 12 to18 inches were reported from the storm.

• According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, October 2008 was an exceptionally dry month in central and southeastern Australia, ranking as the driest October on record for South Australia, second driest for Tasmania, and third driest for Victoria. This was the second successive very dry month in these areas. Parts of Australia have been experiencing drought conditions for over a decade.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

November 2008:

NOAA: Global Temperature for November Fourth Warmest on Record

December 16, 2008

The year 2008 is on track to be one of the 10 warmest years on record for the globe, based on the combined average of worldwide land and ocean surface temperatures, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. For November alone, the month is fourth warmest all-time globally, for the combined land and ocean surface temperature. The early assessment is based on records dating back to 1880.
Global Temperature Highlights – 2008

• The combined global land and ocean surface temperature from January – November was 0.86 degree F (0.48 degree C) above the 20th century mean of 57.2 degrees F (14.0 degrees C).

• Separately, the global land surface temperature for 2008 was the fifth warmest, with an average temperature 1.44 degrees F (0.80 degree C) above the 20th century mean of 48.1 degrees F (9.0 degrees C).

• Also separately, the global ocean surface temperature for 2008 was 0.67 degrees F (0.37 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 61.0 degrees F (16.1 degrees C).

Global Temperature Highlights – November 2008

• The November combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.06 degrees F (0.59 degree C) above the 20th century mean of 55.2 degrees F (12.9 degrees C).

• Separately, the November 2008 global land surface temperature was fourth warmest on record and was 2.11 degrees F (1.17 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 42.6 degrees F (5.9 degrees C).

• For November, the global ocean surface temperature was 0.68 degrees F (0.38 degree C) above the 20th century mean of 60.4 degrees F (15.8 degrees C).

Other Global Highlights for 2008

• In the tropical Pacific, 2008 was dominated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions. La Niña conditions that began the year had dissipated by June.

• Arctic sea ice extent in 2008 reached its second lowest melt season extent on record in September. The minimum of 1.74 million square miles (4.52 million square kilometers) reached on September 12 was 0.86 million square miles (2.24 million square kilometers) below the 1979-2000 average minimum extent.

• The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most costly on record in current dollars, after 2005 and 2004, and the fourth most active year since 1944. This was the first season with a major hurricane (Category 3 or above) each month from July through November. With the exception of the South Indian Ocean, all other tropical cyclone regions recorded near to below-average activity during 2008. Globally, there were 89 named tropical cyclones, with 41 reaching the equivalent of hurricane strength (74 mph), and 20 achieving the equivalent of major hurricane status (111 mph or greater) based on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

• The United States recorded a preliminary total of just under 1,700 tornadoes from January - November. This ranks 2008 second behind 2004 for the most tornadoes in a year, since reliable records began in 1953.

• Torrential rains caused widespread flooding in parts of Vietnam, Ethiopia, northern Venezuela, Brazil, Panama, and the northern Philippines during November. Several million people were displaced and nearly 200 fatalities were reported. Monsoonal rainfall was much above average over many regions in 2008. Mumbai, India, recorded its greatest June rainfall in seven years, while Hanoi, Vietnam, observed its greatest October rains since 1984.

• Persistent severe to exceptional drought plagued portions of south central Texas and the Southeast U.S. in 2008. Based on the Palmer Drought Index, the 2008 percent area of the contiguous United States experiencing moderate-extreme drought peaked at 31 percent in June – July. Australia’s worst drought in a century eased early in 2008, but drought conditions continued in parts of the country.

• Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in November was 12.66 million square miles (32.78 million square kilometers). This is 0.50 million square miles (1.29 million square kilometers) below the 1966-2008 November average. Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent has been below average for most of 2008.

The analyses in NCDC’s global reports are based on preliminary data, which are subject to revision. Additional quality control is applied to the data when late reports are received several weeks after the end of the month and as increased scientific methods improve NCDC’s processing algorithms.
NCDC’s ranking of 2008 as ninth warmest if expected trends continue compares to a similar ranking of ninth warmest based on an analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The NASA analysis indicates that the January – November global temperature was 0.76 degree F (0.42 degree C) above the 20th century mean. The NOAA and NASA analyses differ slightly in methodology, but both use data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center — the federal government's official source for climate data.
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

 

[tcharron]

The Earth got warmer due to increased sunspot activity in the '90's. There were no sunspots in August, the first time of this since records were started in the early 1700's. The Arctic ice cap increased 13% in 2008, the size of Germany. Australia had record cold last summer. China was paralyzed by blizzards. Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. The polar ice caps on Mars receded as well. I suppose the Martian SUV's caused this too. The next thing they're going to say is that Osama Bin Missing caused global warming.

Your data is still flawed. Look at it based in comparison to the *entire year* It gains size EVERY year, after melting. Just like the snow, it comes, and goes. The overall trend, however, is still down.

The cycles still exist. The ice still freezes and thaws. But every year, it leaves less ice.

 

[loafer89]

2008 Among the 10 Warmest Years
Marked by Weather Extremes and Lowest Level of Arctic Ice Cover
Published on Dec 19, 2008 - 5:42:20 AM
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By: World Meteorological Organization
Geneva, 16 December 2008 (WMO) – The year 2008 is likely to rank as the 10th warmest year on record since the beginning of the instrumental climate records in 1850, according to data sources compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The global combined sea-surface and land-surface air temperature for 2008 is currently estimated at 0.31 degrees C/0.56 degrees F above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14.00 degrees C/57.2 degrees F. The global average temperature in 2008 was slightly lower than that for the previous years of the 21st century due in particular, to the moderate to strong La Nina that developed in the latter half of 2007.

The Arctic Sea ice extent dropped to its second-lowest level during the melt season since satellite measurements began in 1979. Climate extremes, including devastating floods, severe and persistent droughts, snow storms, heatwaves and cold waves, were recorded in many parts of the world.

This preliminary information for 2008 is based on climate data from networks of land-based weather stations, ships and buoys, as well as satellites. The data are continuously collected and disseminated by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of WMO's 188 Members and several collaborating research institutions. Final updates and figures for 2008 will be published in March 2009 in the annual WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate.

WMO's global temperature analysis is based on two complementary sources. One is the combined dataset maintained by both the Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office, and the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK. The other dataset is maintained by the US Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

REGIONAL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES

2008 again was a year with above-average temperatures all over Europe. A large geographical domain, including north-western Siberia and part of the Scandinavian region, recorded a remarkably mild winter. January and February were very mild over nearly all of Europe. Monthly mean temperature anomalies for these months exceeded +7 degrees C in some places in Scandinavia. In most parts of Finland, Norway and Sweden, winter 2007/08 was the warmest recorded since the beginning of measurements. In contrast, the boreal winter was remarkably cold for a large part of Eurasia extending eastward from Turkey to China. Some places in Turkey had their coldest January nights in nearly 50 years. This extreme cold weather caused hundreds of casualties in Afghanistan and China.

February was a cold month across most of the USA Midwest, with average daily temperatures ranging from 4.0 degrees C to 5.0 degrees C below normal in some areas.

A very cold episode, due to an early Antarctic air mass outbreak, occurred in May in southern South America, particularly in central Argentina, where the minimum temperature dropped below –6 degrees C in some locations, breaking annual absolute minimum temperature records. Conversely, mean July temperatures were more than +3 degrees C above average in large parts of Argentina, Paraguay, southeast Bolivia and southern Brazil, making it the warmest July in the last 50 years for many locations. Also, November broke historical temperature records in association with an unusual heatwave. Central Argentina, including Buenos Aires city, had its warmest November in the last 50 years.

In March, southern Australia experienced a record heatwave that brought scorching temperatures across the region. Adelaide experienced its longest running heatwave on record, with 15 consecutive days of maximum temperatures above 35 degrees C. Also, several heatwaves occurred in south-eastern Europe and the Middle East during April, associated with a very warm spring observed, not only in this region but also in a large part of the rest of Europe and Asia.

PROLONGED DROUGHT

At the end of July, most parts of the Southeast of North America were classified as having moderate to exceptional drought, based on the US Drought Monitor. The continuous dry conditions across northern and central California hindered efforts to contain numerous large wildfires.

Southern British Columbia in Canada experienced its fifth driest period in 61 years. In Europe, Portugal and Spain had their worst drought winter in decades.

In South America, a large part of Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay experienced a prolonged and intense drought during most of 2008, which caused severe damage to agriculture.

Dry conditions in south-eastern Australia reinforced long-term drought over much of that region, with Victoria having its ninth-driest year on record. These conditions exacerbated severe water shortages in the agriculturally important Murray-Darling Basin, resulting in widespread crop failures in the area. September and October, in particular, were exceptionally dry in this region.

FLOODING AND INTENSE STORMS

In January, 1.3 million square kilometres (km2) in 15 provinces in southern China were covered by snow and experienced persistent low temperature and icing. This weather affected the daily life of millions of people who suffered from disruptions of transport, energy supply and power transmission, as well as damage to agriculture.

In Canada, several all-time snowfall records were set during winter reaching more than 550 centimetres (cm) in many locations, including Quebec City. The accumulation of snow was heavy enough to cause numerous roofs to collapse, killing at least four people. In Toronto, the 2007/2008 winter was the third snowiest on record in the 70 year of snow measurement records. At the end of January, Prince Edward Island was struck by one of the worst ice storms in decades. Nearly 95 per cent of the province lost power for a time.

In the United States of America, heavy April rainfall combined with previously saturated ground and snowmelt resulted in widespread major flooding that affected Missouri and southern Indiana. During the month of June, daily precipitation records were broken in many parts of Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Missouri. Also, this year was one of the top 10 years for tornado-related fatalities (123 total) since reliable records began in 1953. According to statistics, from January to August, 1 489 tornadoes were recorded, marking a record since 1953.

In Germany, between May and September, a large number of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain, tornadoes and hail storms were observed, causing some casualties and significant damages.

Sub-Saharan Africa, including West and East Africa, was affected by heavy rains, which caused the worst-ever recorded flooding in Zimbabwe and affected more than 300,000 people in West Africa during the monsoon season.

In northern Africa, heavy and extended rainfall during the period of September to November affected Algeria and Morocco, causing important infrastructure damage and several casualties in many cities and villages. Extreme rainfall intensities were recorded in northern provinces of Morocco with up to 200 millimetres (mm) of rainfall in less than six hours. Within the same climate anomaly context and period, intense rainfall was also recorded in south-western Europe. In Valencia, Spain, a total rainfall of 390 mm was recorded in 24 hours, of which 144 mm were recorded in less than one hour. In France, heavy and intense rains affected several locations from 31 October to 2 November. In three days, total rainfall reached 500 mm in some locations, which caused severe flooding and flash floods particularly in central and east-central parts of the country.

Several major rain events affected eastern Australia in January and February, causing significant flooding, particularly in Queensland. In November, widespread heavy rains occurred across most of the continent, ending an extremely dry period in central Australia. Associated severe thunderstorms caused damage from winds, hail and flash floods in many places.

In southern Asia, including India, Pakistan and Vietnam, heavy monsoon rains and torrential downpours produced flash floods, killing more than 2 600 people, and displacing 10 million people in India.

In western Colombia, continuous above-normal rainfall resulted in severe flooding that affected at least half a million people and caused extensive damage and landslides during the second half of the year.

In Southern Brazil, heavy rainfall affected Santa Catarina State from 22 to 24 November causing severe flooding and deadly mudslides, which affected 1.5 million people and resulted in 120 casualties and left 69,000 people homeless.

WEAKENING OF LA NINA

The first quarter of 2008 was characterized by a La Nina event of moderate to strong intensity, which began in the third quarter of 2007 and prevailed through May 2008. The large area of cool surface waters over the bulk of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, combined with warmer-than-normal conditions in the equatorial western Pacific, represented typical La Nina forcing on the global atmosphere; many climate patterns reflected those normally observed during a La Niña event, both in the vicinity of, and remote from, the tropical Pacific. La Nina conditions have gradually weakened from their peak strength in February, and near-neutral conditions prevailed during the later half of 2008.

TROPICAL CYCLONES SEASON

The most deadly tropical cyclone recorded in 2008 was Cyclone Nargis, which developed in the North Indian Ocean and hit Myanmar in early May, killing nearly 78,000 people and destroying thousands of homes. Nargis was the most devastating cyclone to hit Asia since 1991 and resulted in the worst natural disaster on record for Myanmar.

A total of 16 named tropical storms formed in the Atlantic including eight hurricanes, five of which were major hurricanes at Category 3 or higher (averages are eleven, six and two, respectively). The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was devastating, with many casualties and widespread destruction in the Caribbean, Central America and the United States of America. For the first time on record, six consecutive tropical cyclones (Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike) made landfall on the United States of America, and a record three major hurricanes (Gustav, Ike and Paloma) hit Cuba. Hanna, Ike and Gustav were the deadliest hurricanes during the season, causing several hundred of casualties in the Caribbean, including 500 deaths in Haiti.

In the East Pacific, 17 named tropical storms were recorded, of which seven evolved into hurricanes and 2 of them into major hurricanes (averages are sixteen, nine and four, respectively).

In the western North Pacific, 22 named tropical storms were recorded, and 10 of them were classified as typhoons compared to the long-term average of 27 and 14, respectively. Philippines, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and south-eastern China were the most affected by these events. For the first time since 2001, no named tropical cyclones made landfall in Japan this year.

ANTARCTIC OZONE HOLE LARGER

The ozone hole area reached a maximum of 27 million km2 on 12 September. This is less than in the record year 2006 (more than 29 million km2) but larger than in 2007 (25 million km2). The variation in the size of the ozone hole from one year to another can be, to a large extent, explained by the meteorological conditions in the stratosphere.

ARCTIC SEA ICE DOWN TO SECOND-LOWEST EXTENT

Arctic sea ice extent during the 2008 melt season dropped to its second-lowest level since satellite measurements began in 1979, reaching the lowest point in its annual cycle of melt and growth on 14 September 2008. Average sea ice extent over the month of September, a standard measure in the scientific study of Arctic sea ice, was 4.67 million km2. The record monthly low, set in 2007, was 4.3 million km2.

Because ice was thinner in 2008, overall ice volume was less than that in any other year.

A remarkable occurrence in 2008 was the dramatic disappearance of nearly one-quarter of the massive ancient ice shelves on Ellesmere Island. Ice 70 metres thick, which a century ago covered 9 000 km2, has been chiselled down to just 1 000 km2 today, underscoring the rapidity of changes taking place in the Arctic. The season strongly reinforces the 30-year downward trend in Artic sea ice extent.

INFORMATION SOURCES

This press release was issued in collaboration with the Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office, the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK, and the National Climatic Data Centre, National Environmental Satellite and Data Information Service and National Weather Service of NOAA and the National Snow and Ice Data Centre in the United States of America. Other contributors are the NMHSs of Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Finland, France, Germany, India, Japan, Morocco, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and Uruguay. The African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD, Niamey), the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), the Centro Internacional para la Investigacion del Fenomeno El Nino (CIIFEN, Guayaquil, Ecuador), the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC, Nairobi, Kenya), the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre (SADC DMC, Gabarone, Botswana) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) also contributed.

 

[bobbutts]

The more about this topic I learn the more I realize that basically all conclusions are premature. The general theory of CO2 increase = warming seems fairly solid. But all of the tipping points and what affect these will have are unpredictable. Further, there are so many variables such as ocean currents, space weather, events such as volcanoes, etc etc that have large shorter term effects.
1998 was an extreme anomaly.. At the time to AGW people it seemed that by 2009 global temps would be continuing to increase.. That did not happen. Now every denier uses 1998 as a starting point to claim that temps have been falling.
Question all sources including "good" ones like National Geographic, IPCC, NY Times. There is a ton of bad info

 

[loafer89]

Murdock: Global cooling is here


Submitted by SHNS on Thu, 12/18/2008 - 13:45.

• <LI class="first taxonomy_term_479">By DEROY MURDOCK, Scripps Howard News Service
• editorials and opinion

Winter officially arrives with Sunday&apos;s solstice. But for many Americans, autumn 2008&apos;s final days already feel like deepest, coldest January.
New Englanders still lack electricity after a December 11 ice storm snapped power lines. Up to eight inches of snow struck New Orleans and southern Louisiana that day and didn&apos;t melt for 48 hours in some neighborhoods.
In southern California Wednesday, a half-inch of snow brightened Malibu&apos;s hills while a half-foot barricaded highways and marooned commuters in desert towns east of Los Angeles. Three inches of the white stuff shuttered Las Vegas&apos; McCarren Airport that day and dusted the Strip&apos;s hotels and casinos.
What are the odds of that?
Actually, the odds are rising that snow, ice, and cold will grow increasingly common. As serious scientists repeatedly explain, global cooling is here. It is chilling temperatures and so-called "global-warming."
According to the National Climatic Data Center, 2008 will be America&apos;s coldest year since 1997, thanks to La Nina and precipitation in the central and eastern states. Solar quietude also may underlie global cooling. This year&apos;s sunspots and solar radiation approach the minimum in the Sun&apos;s cycle, corresponding with lower Earth temperatures. This echoes Harvard-Smithsonian astrophysicist Dr. Sallie Baliunas&apos; belief that solar variability, much more than CO2, sways global temperatures.
Meanwhile, the National Weather Service reports that last summer was Anchorage&apos;s third coldest on record. "Not since 1980 has there been a summer less reflective of global warming," Craig Medred wrote in the Anchorage Daily News. Consequently, Alaska&apos;s glaciers are thickening in the middle. "It&apos;s been a long time on most glaciers where they&apos;ve actually had positive mass balance," U.S. Geological Survey glaciologist Bruce Molnia told Medred October 13. Similarly, the National Snow and Ice Data Center found that Arctic sea ice expanded 13.2 percent this year, or a Texas-sized 270,000 square miles.
Across the equator, Brazil endured an especially cold September. Snow graced its southern provinces that month.
"Global Warming is over, and Global Warming Theory has failed. There is no evidence that CO2 drives world temperatures or any consequent climate change," Imperial College London astrophysicist and long-range forecaster Piers Corbyn wrote British Members of Parliament on October 28. "According to official data in every year since 1998, world temperatures have been colder than that year, yet CO2 has been rising rapidly." That evening, as the House of Commons debated legislation on so-called "global-warming," October snow fell in London for the first time since 1922.
These observations parallel those of five German researchers led by Professor Noel Keenlyside of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences. "Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade," they concluded in last May&apos;s "Nature," "as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic (man-made) warming."
This "lull" should doom the 0.54 degree Fahrenheit average global temperature rise predicted by the UN&apos;s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Vatican of so-called "global warming." Incidentally, the IPCC&apos;s computer models factor in neither El Nino nor the Gulf Stream. Excluding such major climate variables would be like ESPN ignoring baseball and basketball.
So, is this all just propaganda concocted by Chevron-funded, right-wing, flat-Earthers? Ask Dr. Martin Hertzberg, a physical chemist and retired Navy meteorologist.
"As a scientist and life-long liberal Democrat, I find the constant regurgitation of the anecdotal, fear mongering clap-trap about human-caused global warming to be a disservice to science," Hertzberg wrote in September 26&apos;s USA Today. "From the El Nino year of 1998 until Jan., 2007, the average temperature of the Earth&apos;s atmosphere near its surface decreased some 0.25 C (0.45 F). From Jan., 2007 until the spring of 2008, it dropped a whopping 0.75 C (1.35 F)."
As global cooling becomes more widely recognized, Americans from Maine to Malibu should feel comfortable dreaming of a white Christmas.

(Deroy Murdock is a columnist with Scripps Howard News Service and a media fellow with the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace at Stanford University. E-mail him at deroy.Murdock(at)gmail.com)

 

[loafer89]

Warming Climate Signals Big Changes for Ski Areas, Says New Colorado Study
December 15, 2008

Video: A future of warmer temperatures, less snow and higher snow lines are in store for ski areas across the United States, according to a new study published by CU-Boulder geography professor and global warming expert Mark Williams.

Rocky Mountain ski areas face dramatic changes this century as the climate warms, including best-case scenarios of shortened ski seasons and higher snowlines and worst-case scenarios of bare base areas and winter rains, says a new Colorado study.
The study indicates snowlines -- elevations below which seasonal snowpack will not develop -- will continue to rise through this century, moving up more than 2,400 feet from the base areas of Colorado's Aspen Mountain and Utah's Park City Mountain by 2100, said University of Colorado at Boulder geography Professor Mark Williams. Williams and Brian Lazar of Stratus Consulting Inc. of Boulder combined temperature and precipitation data for Aspen Mountain and Park City Mountain with general climate circulation models for the study.
The pair came up with three scenarios for each of the two ski havens for the years 2030, 2075 and 2100. The low-emissions scenario is based on the presumption that the world begins reducing CO2 emissions, said Williams. The "business-as-usual" scenario assumes the future rate of CO2 increase will be similar to the current rate, while the high-emissions scenario assumes future CO2 emissions will increase over the present rate.
Their forecasts indicate the "business as usual" scenario will cause average temperatures to rise by nearly 4 degrees Fahrenheit at Aspen and Park City by 2030 and 8.6 degrees F in Aspen and 10.4 degrees F for Park City by 2100, said Williams. A paper by Williams and Lazar was presented at the Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union held Dec. 15-19 in San Francisco.
"Ski industry officials know that warming is real, and that small changes in climate have substantial effects on ski areas," said Williams, also a fellow at CU-Boulder's Institute of Arctic and Alpine research. "The bad news is that the past five years of global CO2 emissions have exceeded our high-emissions scenario."
Under each of the emissions scenarios, the length of the ski seasons in Aspen and Park City by 2030 "will be squeezed on each shoulder," with delayed snowpack and earlier melting seasons, he said. Under the high-emissions scenario, Park City will have no snowpack at its base by 2100 and winter precipitation will come in the form of rain.
While the modeling by Williams and Lazar targeted Aspen Mountain and Park City, other ski areas in the Rockies and beyond are likely to be similarly or more drastically affected, said Williams. Many ski areas in California's Sierra Nevada, the Cascade Mountains in Oregon and Washington, and smaller ski areas in the mid-eastern portion of America like Pennsylvania and West Virginia, for example, could be forced out of business in the coming decades as air temperatures continue to warm, he said.
The key to the survival of the larger ski areas in the Rockies is adaptation, said Williams. Ski resorts must expand operations to higher elevations and more northerly parcels of land. They also must beef up gondola transportation systems to shuttle large loads of skiers efficiently from base areas with scant or no snow to snow-packed facilities located at higher elevations, he said.
At most Rocky Mountain ski areas, snowmaking will have to be stepped up considerably in the coming decades, said Williams. Increases in man-made snow will require the diversion and storage of large amounts of water, a challenging and expensive proposition since water rights are already over-appropriated throughout much of the West, he said.
Aspen Mountain, for example, may have to triple its snowmaking efforts in the coming decades because of warming temperatures, meaning an additional 50 cubic feet per second of water must be obtained per month, said Williams. But since appropriating significant amounts of winter water from streams adjacent to most ski areas would leave insufficient flows to maintain healthy aquatic ecosystems, resort operators are looking further and further afield for available water, he said.
"The bottom line is that in order to survive, these ski areas will need to find the necessary water wherever they can and hold it in storage to satisfy future snowmaking needs," Williams said. "Ski resort operators are really scrambling."
The new study was sponsored by Aspen Mountain and the Park City Mountain Resort said Lazar, who noted that two nonprofits -- the Aspen Global Change Institute and the Park City Foundation -- are working with the ski areas to better understand environmental climate change. "The results from studies like ours allow ski areas to try and better plan for the future, including how to be proactive on climate change in the community and region," said Lazar.
Williams and Lazar said many U.S. ski areas will likely follow the lead of ski areas in the European Alps by moving water from basin to basin over long distances and storing it at high elevations to satisfy future snowmaking needs. Ski areas could
generate their own hydropower by pumping water into and out of narrow, deep artificial lakes and small dams lined with plastic to minimize evaporation in the summers.
"It would be a win-win situation," Williams said. "The ski areas could recover some of their costs incurred from purchasing expensive water rights, providing some of their own hydropower to help run the resorts."
Snowmaking has been on the increase in the Alps for decades, where air temperatures have increased nearly 4 degrees F in the past 30 years, said Williams. In the Italian Alps, 70 percent of the skiable terrain is covered by artificial snow, and ski areas in the French Alps now make about 30 percent of their snow, he said. Studies have shown that private jets that fly celebrities and vacationers in and out of Aspen for winter ski jaunts and summer recreation trips are by far the biggest CO2 emitters in the Roaring Fork Valley

 

[ed-drum]

Anyone who gets their "facts" from a government agency should question the government's motives. Public (government) schools taught us that Henry Ford invented the car. Wrong! The EPA also said the air was safe to breathe around the Twin Towers. A good friend of mine is now dying from the asbestos in the air when he worked on the site. People think the "Federal" Reserve Bank is a branch of the Government and NASA is a government agency.

 

[tcharron]

Anyone who gets their "facts" from a government agency should question the government's motives. Public (government) schools taught us that Henry Ford invented the car. Wrong! The EPA also said the air was safe to breathe around the Twin Towers. A good friend of mine is now dying from the asbestos in the air when he worked on the site. People think the "Federal" Reserve Bank is a branch of the Government and NASA is a government agency.

Wow, you better move quick before the government assassinates you.

As far as your examples, we can run them down pretty easy. The EPA didn't release any sort of report until a year later. And what they did release did show that some samples gathered contained higher then the 'safe' levels. However, safe is relative. ANY exposure to asbestos can lead to illness and death. Do you seriously think that the EPA sat back and said, "Screw em, let 'em die! Just don't tell them it's in the air!".

For banking, the federal reserve system is led by a board whose seven members are appointed by the president and confirmed by the senate. It IS an entity of the government. So is NASA.

Back to the original point. CO2 concentrations do directly map to global average temperature. What CAUSED those variations historically are wide and diverse. However the relation between CO2 concentrations has never, from ANY analysis, varied in a different direction then temperature. And right now, we have a higher concentration then in hundreds of thousands of years. Will this cause a change in global temperature? The evidence suggests that it will, gradually, over time. Will there be random fluctuations? Yes. Is it part of a nature cycle? Yes, it is. However, the cycles have historically utilized cycles which we are disrupting dramatically. Warmer periods have always historically, on a wide scale, led to more CO2 sinks, which bring down the CO2 levels, which in turn would cool the planet. These cycles are being destroyed.

If a fire occurs in the forest, the forest will regrow. If you keep torching the new growth forests, they won't, until you knock it off with the flamethrowers.

 

[ed-drum]

Christie Whitman said just days after the WTC fell down that "The air is safe to breathe." from "Ground Zero". People fall prey to the Hegellian Dialectic principle that governments always spew to keep the people scared. Thirty YEARS ago the government said we were running out of gas and oil. The FDA says Aspartame and Fluoride are harmless. We were told by the government that we were winning the war in Viet Nam and we were fighting it to stop the spread of communism. Global Warming is based on junk science and supported by "experts" who engage in classic "Straw Man" tactics. I think all of the "Warmies" out there should shut off their heat and wood stoves. Most of the "environmentalists" drive gas guzzlers but won't give them up. The Federal Reserve is a conglomeration of private banks started in 1913. All of our Federal income tax is used to pay the interest to the "Federal" Reserve. Nasa is a private company. Due some research first.

 

[snoseek]

Loafer89 for the win......

 

[riverc0il]

Christie Whitman said just days after the WTC fell down that "The air is safe to breathe." from "Ground Zero". People fall prey to the Hegellian Dialectic principle that governments always spew to keep the people scared. Thirty YEARS ago the government said we were running out of gas and oil. The FDA says Aspartame and Fluoride are harmless. We were told by the government that we were winning the war in Viet Nam and we were fighting it to stop the spread of communism. Global Warming is based on junk science and supported by "experts" who engage in classic "Straw Man" tactics. I think all of the "Warmies" out there should shut off their heat and wood stoves. Most of the "environmentalists" drive gas guzzlers but won't give them up. The Federal Reserve is a conglomeration of private banks started in 1913. All of our Federal income tax is used to pay the interest to the "Federal" Reserve. Nasa is a private company. Due some research first.

This is the opposite of my previous counting the hits and ignoring the misses. This argument is also illogical because you are counting the misses and not counting the hits. Yes, our government has really let us down on numerous occasions. But it has done a lot of good as well. Look up labor issues 100 years ago for example, and compare them to today. Now labor law is excessively in the workers' favor to the detriment of business. The whole thing is just RIDICULOUS that you pin this on the only major government in the WORLD that did not support Kyoto. LOL. You think the USA dreamed up global warming? You are the one needing to do research if you are trying to back up your opinion by saying the US Government is behind a hoax. :blink:

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

Well there's always Xanadu if we get really bad global warming..as long as there's seeded bumps..and some fast cord..

 

[Glenn]

There earth has been here for billions of years. I have a feeling the climate has changed more than once before us humans came along.

Furthermore, the global warming alarmists can't have it both ways: "It's hot out...global warming!" "Colder than usual winter...global warming!" C'mon.

 

[deadheadskier]

Honestly, I could care less about the debate as to whether the world is warming or not. Let there be no debate however, that humans cause tremendous harm to the environment and that's gotta change irregardless of the impact is may or may not have on climate.

 

[Bumpsis]

There earth has been here for billions of years. I have a feeling the climate has changed more than once before us humans came along.

Furthermore, the global warming alarmists can't have it both ways: "It's hot out...global warming!" "Colder than usual winter...global warming!" C'mon.

These type of remarks really make me cringe.
Too little knowledge is a dangerous thing, isn't it Glenn?

Sounds like you'd like a definitive answer to a very complex problem without doing the research. Confronted with seemingly opposite observations (hot - cold), it's easier to just resort to name calling - "global warming alarmists" and be dismissive, rather than to put some effort into trying to understand the facts of the issue.
I'll agree that trying to use any short term obeservations (hot or cold) to support the validity of the global warming is just wrong because the phenomenon is a long time trend.

 

[ERJ-145CA]

Well there's always Xanadu if we get really bad global warming..as long as there's seeded bumps..and some fast cord..

It's only 3,790 runs or so to get your current 568,000 feet of vertical.

 

[ed-drum]

The US didn't dream up Global Warming, the Club of Rome did. Never heard of that? look it up. This is classic "Straw Man" tactics. How come the entire Solar system warmed up? You are ignoring that fact.