How bad is it?

[SnowRider]

Everyone has been moping about global warming and rain but how bad are the ski areas hurting?

In my opinion it seems many people are over-exagerrating how bad the ski industry is doing and how bad the economy for it is. Look at all these mountains like ragged, crotched, snow, and all the other recently bought areas. They are upgrading, adding trails, and putting in high tech equipment. Loon has started the south peak exspansion (finally) and jay peak is considering exspaniding (proboly a ways away but there still thinking of it).

I belive that this is almost the "golden age" of ski resorts. Resort everywhere are upgrading, and for those afraid of global warming...its happening...no doubt. But dont look at is as negative. look at is a challend ski ares must enbrace! Give it time and the resorts will find ways to overcome this.

so in your opinion, how bad is it?

 

[loafer89]

Not that this has anything to do with global warming/climate change in the Northeast, this picture in the latest issue of National Geographic was depressing. This is, or was the highest ski area in the world on Chacaltaya Glacier in Bolivia, topping out at 17,785'. The ski area was founded in 1939, but has not operated since 1998 due to the rapid melt of the glacier:

Warming of the higher summits air temperatures, combined with El Nino/La Nina put this glacier into a death spiral, and it's estimated age was 18,000 years.

 

[snoseek]

been over to nelsap?

 

[riverc0il]

been over to nelsap?

LOLz

Unfortunately, this is the type of reasoning many people are taking. Negating a long term trend by pointing out short term progress. Counting the hits and ignoring the misses. Fortunately for New England (unlike many European glaciers rapidly melting out), the long term effects have not really taken hold (though as snoseek accurately points out, declining natural snow, in combination with other economical effects, was one of many issues that effected declining amounts of ski areas in New England).

The fact of the matter is that science and technology have certainly helped the business of skiing increase the shoulder seasons and manage to allow resorts and ski areas to at least break even during bad years. But even during a weird season such as 2006-2007, not even man made snow can fully make up for the natural stuff being delivered on a timely basis.

In summation, it is way too premature to make any conclusions regarding effects of a warming global temperature on New England. Given certain scenarios, it is possible that certain parts of the globe may receive higher than average snow fall despite increased average temperatures. Technology alone will not over come a warming pattern though as the Tenney Mountain SnowMagic system proved, you really do need to have cold temperatures to make snow. And as far as ski areas staying in business, ski areas really need to have natural snow... both on the mountains and just as importantly in the cities.

 

[Greg]

Get ready for a 20 page discussion by Tuesday...

 

[dmc]

Get ready for a 20 page discussion by Tuesday...

Not from me... I've been told not to engage in these types of discussions because I can't tear the politics out of it...

Carry on... I'll debate this elsewhere..
:beer:

 

[loafer89]

Another OT picture, but it's a cool one of the fastest growing glacier in the America if not the world, the glacier inside Mount Saint Helens, formed entirely since the 1980 eruption and now 650' thick in spots, take that global warming:

 

[loafer89]

This is a summary of the forecast effect of global warming on New England for each state through 2100:

Global Warming in New England States

The US EPA and other agencies have done thorough studies to determine the likely impacts of global warming. Some effects on New England states follow. For more infomation, see the EPA Global Warming Website.
Effects of Global Warming in Connecticut

A seemingly small increase in annual temperatures would change New England as we know it. To put it in perspective, a projected temperature increase of 6°- 10° F would result in Hartford temperatures matching those of today's Atlanta, GA, with dramatic effects on our environment.

• Over the last century, average temperatures in Storrs, Connecticut, increased from 45.8°F (1892-1921 average) to 48.2°F (1966-1995 average), and precipitation in some locations increased by 20%.
• By 2100, temperatures in Connecticut could increase about 4°F (with a range of 2-8°F) in all seasons. Precipitation is projected to increase by 10-20% (with a range of 0-40%), with slightly less change in spring and summer and slightly more in winter.
• Heat-related deaths during a typical summer in Hartford could increase by about 20%, from close to 40 to near 50.
• Ground-level ozone concentrations exceed national health standards throughout the state. All of Connecticut is classified as a serious nonattainment area. Ozone is a major component of smog and has been shown to aggravate respiratory illnesses. Ozone also reduces crop yields As much as 30-60% of the hardwood forests could be replaced by warmer climate forests with a mix of pines and hardwoods.
• Sea level is rising 8 inches per century along much of Connecticut's coast, and it is likely to rise another 22 inches by 2100.
• Cumulative costs through 2100 to protect Connecticut's coastline from a 20-inch sea level rise could be $0.5-$3 billion.

Effects of Global Warming in Maine

• Over the last century, the average temperature in Lewiston, Maine, has increased 3.4°F, and precipitation has decreased by up to 20% in many parts of the state.
• By 2100 temperatures in Maine could increase by 4°F (with a range of 2-8°F), slightly less in spring and fall and slightly more in summer and winter. Precipitation is projected to show little change in spring, increase by 10% in summer and fall (with a range of 5-15%), and increase by 30% in winter (with a range of 10-50%).
• 35-60% of the hardwood forests could be replaced by warmer-climate forests with a mix of pines and hardwoods or by grassland and pasture. Spruce and fir forests in higher altitudes could be reduced by as much as 40-50%.
• At Rockland, sea level already is rising by 3.9 inches per century, and it is likely to rise another 14 inches by 2100.
• The cumulative cost of sand replenishment to protect Maine's coastline from a 20-inch sea level rise by 2100 is estimated at $200-$900 million.

Effects of Global Warming in Massachusetts

• Over the last century, the average temperature in Amherst, Massachusetts, has increased 2°F, and precipitation has increased by up to 20% in many parts of the state.
• By 2100 temperatures could increase by about 4°F (with a range of 1-8°F) in winter and spring and about 5°F (with a range of 2-10°F) in summer and fall. Precipitation is estimated to increase by about 10% in spring and summer, 15% in fall, and 20-60% in winter. The amount of precipitation on extreme wet or snowy days in winter is likely to increase, while the frequency of extreme hot days in summer would also increase.
• Heat-related deaths in Boston during a typical summer could increase 50% by 2050, from close to 100 to over 150; the elderly, particularly those living alone, are at greatest risk
• In 1999, Boston had a record 304 consecutive snowless days.
• Ground-level ozone concentrations exceed national health standards throughout the state and could increase as a result of higher temperatures brought on by global warming. All of Massachusetts is classified as a serious nonattainment area. Ground-level ozone is a majorcomponent of smog and aggravates respiratory illnesses. Ambient ozone also reduces crop yields.
• Warming expands the habitat of disease-carrying insects, thus increasing the potential for transmission of diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, West Nile virus and Lyme disease.
• Warmer seas could contribute to the increased intensity, duration, and extent of harmful algal blooms, which damage habitat and shellfish nurseries, can be toxic to humans, and carry bacteria like those causing cholera.
• Massachusetts loses an average of 65 acres to rising sea levels each year. Much of this loss occurs along the south-facing coast between Rhode Island and the outer shore of Cape Cod, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. Coastal land lost due to erosion is not included. At Boston, sea level is rising 11 inches per century, and it is likely to rise another 22 inches by 2100.
• The cumulative cost of sand replenishment to protect the coast of Massachusetts from a 20-inch sea level rise by 2100 is estimated at $490 million to $2.6 billion.

Effects of Global Warming in New Hampshire

• Over the last century, the average temperature in Hanover, New Hampshire, has increased 2°F, and precipitation has decreased by up to 20% in many parts of the state.
• By 2100 temperatures in New Hampshire could increase by about 4°F (with a range of 2-9°F) in spring, and by about 5°F (with a range of 2-10°F) in the other seasons. Precipitation is estimated to show little change in spring, to increase by about 10% in summer and fall, and to increase by 25-60% in winter.
• Ground-level ozone concentrations exceed national ozone health standards in the southern parts of New Hampshire. Portsmouth is classified as a serious nonattainment area. Ground-level ozone is a major component of smog and aggravates respiratory illnesses. Ambient ozone also reduces crop yields.
• 25-50% of the hardwood forests could be replaced by warmer-climate forests with a mix of pines and hardwoods. Spruce and fir forests at higher altitudes also could be reduced.
• 6,200 acres of salt marshes along the coast and around the Great Bay estuary of New Hampshire, a critical habitat for wildlife, could be damaged by changes in runoff and sea level.
• At Seavey Island/Portsmouth, sea level is rising by 7 inches per century, and it is likely to rise another 18 inches by 2100.
• The cumulative cost of sand replenishment to protect the coast of New Hampshire from a 20-inch sea level rise by 2100 is estimated at $39-$304 million.

Effects of Global Warming in Rhode Island

• Over the last century, the average temperature in Providence, Rhode Island, increased 3.3°F, and precipitation increased by up to 20% in many parts of the state.
• By 2100 temperatures in Rhode Island could increase by 4°F (with a range of 1-8°F) in winter and spring and by 5°F (with a range of 2-10°F) in summer and fall. Precipitation is projected to increase by 10% in spring and summer (with a range of 5-15%), 15% in fall (with a range of 5-30%), and 25% in winter (with a range of 10-50%).
• Heat-related deaths during a typical summer in Providence could increase by 50% from the current 50 to near 75.
• In Rhode Island, production agriculture is a $78 million annual industry, three-fourths of which comes from crops. The major crops are silage, potatoes, and hay. Climate change could reduce potato yields by 30-66%. Silage, hay, and pasture yields could fall as much as 39%.
• At Watch Hill, sea level is rising two inches per century, and is likely to rise another 12.4 inches by 2100.
• The cumulative cost of sand replenishment to protect Rhode Island's coastline from a 20-inch sea level rise by 2100 is estimated at $90-$530 million.

Effects of Global Warming in Vermont

• Over the last century, the average temperature in Burlington, Vermont, increased 0.4°F, and precipitation increased by up to 5% in many parts of the state.
• By 2100 temperatures in Vermont could increase by 4°F (with a range of 2-9°F) in spring and 5°F (with a range of 2-10°F) in the other seasons. Precipitation is projected to show little change in spring, to increase by about 10% in summer and fall (with a range of 5-20%), and by 30% (with a range of 10-50%) in winter.
• Production agriculture is a $440 million annual industry, three-fourths of which comes from dairy livestock. The major crops in the state are silage and hay, yields of which could fall by as much as 39% as temperatures rise soil moisture decreases.
• 30-60% of the hardwood forests could be replaced by warmer-climate forests with a mix of pines and hardwoods.
• Warming also could cause maple sap to run earlier and more quickly, thus shortening the length of the season and reducing production.

Read about Global Climate Effects. | Read about Regional Climate Effects.

Copyright © 2004 New England Climate Coalition. Updated October 23, 2003.​

 

[wa-loaf]

Check out this cool slideshow of melting Swiss glaciers. :-(

 

[loafer89]

I am not sure that I buy this, but here is another bit on the effects of a warming climate on New Hampshire skiing. I think that the demise of some of the ski areas had more to do with the increased costs of doing business, such as rising energy costs and insurance costs:

Ski Industry

Since 1930 the ski industry has been an important part of New Hampshire's economy. Skiing provides critical jobs in small towns and pumps more than $650 million into the New Hampshire economy. The ski industry is already suffering from shorter ski seasons and increased operating costs attributable to the warming of the past few decades. Since 1970 the number of New Hampshire ski areas dropped steeply, with many southern and lower-elevation resorts closest to population centers going out of business.
In order to survive today, New Hampshire ski areas must produce artificial snow on more than 90 percent of their trails. Snowmaking requires freezing temperatures, access to large local water sources, and intensive infrastructure investments. Rising temperatures mean increased snowmaking, leading to higher operating costs.
Tourism associated with cross-country skiing, snowshoeing, and snowmobiling will see the earliest effects from global warming because these activities depend on natural snowfall and do not have the option of artificial snowmaking.

 

[bobbutts]

In 1975 there were
no HSQ and no expectation of corduroy on top of deep bases on wide trails and much less insurance cost
Yes, GW is an issue for the resorts to deal with. No it isn't the factor that killed all those resorts.

 

[riverc0il]

No it isn't the factor that killed all those resorts.

I don't think any one would make the case that lost ski areas are exclusively the domain of warming temperature trends. But there are some interesting correlations and impacts in regards to ski areas not being able to survive without snow making. Snow making is king in New England and only a few special areas survive without investment in snow making equipment and technology.

 

[bobbutts]

I don't think any one would make the case that lost ski areas are exclusively the domain of warming temperature trends. But there are some interesting correlations and impacts in regards to ski areas not being able to survive without snow making. Snow making is king in New England and only a few special areas survive without investment in snow making equipment and technology.

Their image seems to be saying that, it's http://www.ucsusa.org/
Union of Concerned Scientists

That image was pulled from this article:
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/global-warming-in-new-hampshire.html

My question is was there ever reliable deep snowpack in S.NH where most of the closed areas are? I believe these areas had marginal snow and short seasons but survived due to lack of overhead. For various reasons they went 'nelsap' over the years. I would argue that had the climate remained perfectly stable (all other factors equal) since 1975 the map would look essentially the same.

 

[threecy]

Take out real estate backed development and Peak Resorts, there's very little going on in the northeast ski industry...with the exception of a few ski areas, no one's running away with a profit.

I'd liken the mass ski area closings to a drawn out dot com-like bubble rather than global warming...an instantaneous, misread growth curve (1960s for NE ski areas, 1990s for .com), then a rapid loss of businesses without a drop in customers. Way too many ski areas were blindly built (just as way too many .com companies were started), and as a result, most of the poorly planned businesses closed doors or were overtaken.

 

[ski_resort_observer]

Last Monday it kinda windy and cold so I was thinking maybe this global warning thing was just a passing fad but last Thursday it was hot and humid. Whoops...global warming back on.

 

[SnowRider]

not trying to be mean or anything...
but survival of the fitest.

and dont tell me its the smaller ones we need for the industry to go round cause places like wachusett, nashoba, and other larger small areas (if that makes sense) will continue no doubt.

 

[AMAC2233]

Last Monday it kinda windy and cold so I was thinking maybe this global warning thing was just a passing fad but last Thursday it was hot and humid. Whoops...global warming back on.

Agreed, the weather seems to change so often it becomes hard to tell what is really happening. Like, at the beginning of the winter everyone was thinking worried since records were set with the heat, then we hit late January and near records are set with the sustained cold. This spring has been below normal also, but the month of May has been very warm, and the summer is predicted to be a hot one. It really makes you think sometime, I always try to convince myself that it is all a lie and that we have just had some warm years, but other times it does seem all too real.

 

[riverc0il]

Agreed, the weather seems to change so often it becomes hard to tell what is really happening. Like, at the beginning of the winter everyone was thinking worried since records were set with the heat, then we hit late January and near records are set with the sustained cold. This spring has been below normal also, but the month of May has been very warm, and the summer is predicted to be a hot one. It really makes you think sometime, I always try to convince myself that it is all a lie and that we have just had some warm years, but other times it does seem all too real.

Man, I am so sick of seeing this suggestion made. Global warming is a long term global pattern in which their are many short term anomalies. There is still a lot to debate about the issue of global warming but there isn't a scientist any where in the world that would dispute the evidence that the average global temperature is increasing currently. Also, you can not generalize what is happening in New England as a barometer for a world wide trend, that is a narrow scope. Just because you can't not see the immediate effects out your window does not mean something is not happening.

not trying to be mean or anything...
but survival of the fitest.

and dont tell me its the smaller ones we need for the industry to go round cause places like wachusett, nashoba, and other larger small areas (if that makes sense) will continue no doubt.

I completely agree that the best ski areas will continue to operate while those areas that can not swing changes in the industry will fail. But I completely disagree that the industry does not need smaller areas. The smaller areas are the life blood of bringing new skiers into the sport. I would project that if areas such as Wachusett, Nashoba, etc. closed then so too would a corresponding number of the larger areas due to lower skier numbers. Fact is skiing is not a growing sport but rather stagnant despite the occasional horrah from the industry on a good seasonal numbers.

Regarding the whole lost area thing, economic factors are obviously the biggest issue for those that closed in the past. We seemed to have reached a period in which a few areas came back but a few are still on the edge, but we are pretty much right at market saturation at this point. I think the telling issue will be in 20 years how areas in southern New England will fare depending on how weather patterns change. To answer the question, "how bad is it?" it is not bad yet but I think we could see a decline in the sport and industry within our lifetime. Another consolidation further north and consolidation to areas with the best infrastructure that cater most to specific populations, demographics, and tastes. A lot though will depend on the youth of today... whether they get into the sport or decide that home entertainment, game boys, cell phones, and web 2.0 is more important than physical activity and getting to the mountains. I suspect in the short term, the industry is more concerned about boomers retiring and falling out of the sport and a lack of kids to take up the steam than what will happen in the long term say outside 20 years.

 

[dmc]

Man, I am so sick of seeing this suggestion made. Global warming is a long term global pattern in which their are many short term anomalies.

Roll the dice... Cocky humans.,...

We're all afraid of losing our way of life..

 

[Greg]

Last Monday it kinda windy and cold so I was thinking maybe this global warning thing was just a passing fad but last Thursday it was hot and humid. Whoops...global warming back on.

Interesting there were no global warming threads started between mid-January and mid-May, ain't it...?