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January 2nd - 3rd storm

BenedictGomez

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This one is potentially fairly impressive, and given all the models now "see" it, I figured I'd start a monitoring thread.

Submitted for your viewing pleasure, today's 12z GFS. Keep in mind these maps default at 10:1, so the snowfall totals might be a bit better than this map given the cold air expected.


 

mulva

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It's still a little early but I hope this pans out. We have a family trip at K from the 2nd - 5th to start our season. With this solution, tomorrow night's hit and good snowmaking conditions all throughout; it's all coming together nicely!

Thanks for the map! I've been trying to make sense of the people on Americanwx but 80% of the posts are either over my head, inside jokes or drama. This map is all I need.

Keeping fingers crossed!
 

BenedictGomez

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It's still a little early but I hope this pans out........Thanks for the map!

It's definitely too early, but given all the models "see".....well..... something, I felt it wasnt too early to make a thread.

The interesting thing if you've been watching this for the last 5 days is that it has dramatically come south, as this thing was over Canada back then. If you're a "trend is my friend" believer in northeast snowstorm map-watching, then the bullseye might be projected to be south of where this is depicted. Lets just hope it doesnt go any farther east!
 

BenedictGomez

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This Euro map just out is good too.

And considering the Euro is Mike Tyson to the US government's Glass Joe, it's another good sign.

 

4aprice

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This Euro map just out is good too.

And considering the Euro is Mike Tyson to the US government's Glass Joe, it's another good sign.


We get that and even the Pocono's will be rockin. The base is down, add natural to it and we are back to where we were before Christmas. Skied today and considering what had happened it wasn't too bad. Decent bumps on a couple of trails at CBK. Nice to have them up so early.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ
 

catsup948

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One would hope the very cold air doesn't push this too far south. This kind of storm would be jackpot for ski country. Especially the catskills and the southern greens.

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BenedictGomez

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The 12z Euro shifted the snowfall WAY far north from yesterday.

If that's the solution, the map would literally be the "dream scenario" for all of ski country, from Cats to Dax to VT and NH and ME. The map basically has the axis of the heavy snowfall cutting on a perfect path through pretty much every resort, lol. Shows 10" - 16" pretty much everywhere, max output = 20.5".

Except the Poconos, who'd get screwed.....as always.

It's only the operational model though, so I'd wait to see the ensemble depiction when it comes out to see if that substantial jog north is an outlier or not, but I'd be pretty excited for northeaster skiers if this 12z map happens!
 

catsup948

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Long duration storm. Starts Wednesday night! There are hints at snow for early next week too. Lots of cold throughout. Big winter incoming!

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BenedictGomez

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GFS and Canuck starting to bring this thing east. Great for Boston and coastal towns, not so much for ski-country.

Hopefully the King stays the course tonight and wallops the mountains, should be out any minute now.







LATE NIGHT EDIT: And the op Euro maintains a giant northeastern blizzard. Wow, quite a major disparity now between the Euro and the GFS+Canadian models which push this thing east, and the Euro which basically is a best case scenario where everything goes perfectly. Off to bed.

 
Last edited:

billski

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nws
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
355 AM EST MON DEC 30 2013
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AND THEN OFF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN THE PRODUCTION OF A DRY FLUFFY
SNOW...AND NOT A HEAVY WET SNOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LONG DURATION
OF THIS EVENT...A SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY BY
FRIDAY. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...THEN A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS WEEK.
 

aenshech

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Finally a storm to start the season properly

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Cornhead

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Sweet, I'm off Friday, Yay! Hope it pans out, high of 3° on Friday, brrrr. If I'm skiing pow, I won't care.
 
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