ZYDECORICH
Member
Hey bill,hope all is well. # 1 would be nice wouldn't it.
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January 2nd - 3rd storm
- Thread starter BenedictGomez
- Start date
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
Which is why people crap all over them. If I wasnt a skier I'd love to see that blow up on them. There were (still are) so many uncertainties with this storm what with there being 2 pieces of energy and all the moving pieces etc... that that had huge bust potential when they did that. lol
from_the_NEK
Active member
The more they hype the more likely it is to bust
. How do I anti-jinx all of these "HUGE snowstorm" pre-predictions.:???:
My snow stake is at 4" of glacier "snow" right now. It has been to a high of 10". At the rate these storms keep busting for NE VT, I will go another year (currently 3) without having 12 or more inches of snow at my stake for more than 24 hours. Last year, in late March, it got up to 14" overnight but that melted down to 10" by the end of the day.
. How do I anti-jinx all of these "HUGE snowstorm" pre-predictions.:???:My snow stake is at 4" of glacier "snow" right now. It has been to a high of 10". At the rate these storms keep busting for NE VT, I will go another year (currently 3) without having 12 or more inches of snow at my stake for more than 24 hours. Last year, in late March, it got up to 14" overnight but that melted down to 10" by the end of the day.
billski
Active member
Me thinks that So. VT stands a better than average chance of a good pickup from this storm.
MadMadWorld
Active member
I've learned you'll drive yourself crazy watching snow forecasts. Hope for the best...prepare yourself for the worst.
Boston Bulldog
Member
Sorry to be a Debbie downer, but here's what's up with the storm. Its trended south. The main show has shifted over SE MA. Northern ski country is looking like it's going to get nada and southern ski country is looking at a paltry 1-4 inches.
The next storm is a cutter. It will cut inland, bringing its warm front through New England. We will torch and flood. It could be a disaster; however, we are still around a week out so we have time to watch the trends, but be prepared for a Thanksgiving Week redux.
The next storm is a cutter. It will cut inland, bringing its warm front through New England. We will torch and flood. It could be a disaster; however, we are still around a week out so we have time to watch the trends, but be prepared for a Thanksgiving Week redux.
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Ughh excuse me while I go throw up.......Im moving if this happens again !
MadMadWorld
Active member
Who invited you to this party? You should delete this post immediately before everyone jumps out of their office window.
billski
Active member
I'm not a met, so help me out here. The forecasts I've seen suggest the snowfall pattern to be similar to the event from last Sunday. Are the conditions the same, but the storm center just further to the east?
Boston Bulldog
Member
FYI things could and will change. That is just the look as of this morning, not going to sugarcoat it. Play kill the carrier all you want though, it's tough to swallow.
Bill:
Thursday storm will be similar to Sunday's storm but farther SE.
Next weeks storm could be different. the last one was offshore, but didn't have a lot of cold. The scenario for this one is that there is plenty if cold, but the storm will hook inland and displace the cold air off to our west, bringing in warmer air.
Ugh
Bill:
Thursday storm will be similar to Sunday's storm but farther SE.
Next weeks storm could be different. the last one was offshore, but didn't have a lot of cold. The scenario for this one is that there is plenty if cold, but the storm will hook inland and displace the cold air off to our west, bringing in warmer air.
Ugh
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billski
Active member
NWS
000
FXUS61 KBOX 311150
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EST TUE DEC 31 2013
MODELS...MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME MORE ALIGN AMONGST ONE
ANOTHER AS BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED
TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET STILL SEEM TO BE
OUTLIERS BEING THE FURTHEREST OUT TO SEA. THE 00Z EC HAS SPED UP
AND IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN ITS 12Z COUNTERPART. THE EC
ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LINE UP WITH THE GEFS.
THEREFORE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A GFS/EC/PREV FORECAST
COMPROMISE. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD AMONGST THE INDIVIDUAL GEFS MEMBERS AS WELL AS A
SIGNIFICANT TRACK SHIFT/ERROR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS WE ARE STILL
72 HOURS OUT. SO CONTINUED WITH A BELOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
000
FXUS61 KBOX 311150
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EST TUE DEC 31 2013
MODELS...MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME MORE ALIGN AMONGST ONE
ANOTHER AS BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED
TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET STILL SEEM TO BE
OUTLIERS BEING THE FURTHEREST OUT TO SEA. THE 00Z EC HAS SPED UP
AND IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN ITS 12Z COUNTERPART. THE EC
ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LINE UP WITH THE GEFS.
THEREFORE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS A GFS/EC/PREV FORECAST
COMPROMISE. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD AMONGST THE INDIVIDUAL GEFS MEMBERS AS WELL AS A
SIGNIFICANT TRACK SHIFT/ERROR IS STILL POSSIBLE AS WE ARE STILL
72 HOURS OUT. SO CONTINUED WITH A BELOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
Boston Bulldog
Member
JDMRoma: Storm will be moving faster and will become less wrapped up due to fast atmospheric flow. The trough (thing that helps being big Nor Easters up the coast) will be flatter, therefore pushing the storm farther south. The sharper it is, the better the storm. Models are coming into better agreement, but there is still a ton of uncertainty.
The irony of the whole situation is during the next storm the trough gets too sharp and brings the storm too far to the northwest and shoves it inland. (I think)
The irony of the whole situation is during the next storm the trough gets too sharp and brings the storm too far to the northwest and shoves it inland. (I think)
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BenedictGomez
Well-known member
English please....
Disappointment
ScottySkis
Well-known member
Any snow for Roxury NY? They need the snow I like them to have more then 7 trails open.
BenedictGomez
Well-known member
The pacific stream is apparently going to be sampled tonight, so I'll hold out hope until the 00z Euro run. We've seen models take snowstorms away and bring them back before so you never know.
Frankly the real story here that might be missed is just how crazy-cold it might get if the models are right. They show temps for where I live that I would have to imagine would be record breakers. That Saints vs Eagles game could be the Frostbite Bowl if the models are right.
Frankly the real story here that might be missed is just how crazy-cold it might get if the models are right. They show temps for where I live that I would have to imagine would be record breakers. That Saints vs Eagles game could be the Frostbite Bowl if the models are right.
from_the_NEK
Active member
Too late, I looked at the models for Friday through Monday and immediately jumped out the window. Luckily it is a one story building. It still hurt a little bit since we only have 3 inches of hardpack on the ground right now.
MadMadWorld
Active member
Doh! I am still hoping/praying/begging that my area picks up a decent accumulation from the storm!
