Jay Peak bombshell

[deadheadskier]

It's all the factors. I'm sure there would be more visitors if the exchange rate wasn't in the shitter and the Canadian economy was better, but there are definitely many Canadians abstaining from US travel due to personal value based decisions.

If we shared a border with Russia or China, there's no way I'd cross north and spend a dime there. Heck, there are states within our own country that I will not visit and spend money in based upon personal value decisions.

 

[urungus]

if the exchange rate wasn't in the shitter

the Canadian dollar is in the toilet.

Canadian exchange rate is still within the 70 to 80 cents range that it has been for the past decade. Canadian visits did not crater to the extent we are seeing now, in 2016 and 2020 when the rate briefly hit 70 cents. Something else must be keeping Canadians home, can’t imagine what it might be …

 

[raisingarizona]

Canadian exchange rate is still within the 70 to 80 cents range that it has been for the past decade. Canadian visits did not crater to the extent we are seeing now, in 2016 and 2020 when the rate briefly hit 70 cents. Something else must be keeping Canadians home, can’t imagine what it might be …

View attachment 66410

I work for Canadians and have been told that there are many that are 100% boycotting spending time in the states.

 

[deadheadskier]

Canadian exchange rate is still within the 70 to 80 cents range that it has been for the past decade. Canadian visits did not crater to the extent we are seeing now, in 2016 and 2020 when the rate briefly hit 70 cents. Something else must be keeping Canadians home, can’t imagine what it might be …

View attachment 66410

Well I said there was other factors. The exchange rate is only part of it. Their economy as a whole plus sociopolitical factors are also playing a large role. I guess it just depends on how much each individual Canadian is willing to hold their nose to come to the US.

If I were Canadian, the number one reason I'd travel to New England is the better summer weather and largely warmer waters.

 

[AdironRider]

Some things are said at dinner parties that people don't actually mean.

Over my 40 days or so at Jay this winter there were just as many Quebecois cutting lines and being their usual selves as before. Jay also set an attendance record on a Spring day in late March. So while I'm sure there are some who are refusing based solely on politics, I bet it is not nearly as pervasive as people say it is.

I think there is a bifurcated economy right now and 80% of both countries populations are struggling to get skiing or whatever other expensive outdoor hobby (if you think Jay or Vail is in for it you should ask anyone in the MTB industry right now how things are going) to pencil in their household budget.

 

[BodeMiller1]

There's no doubt there's anger in Canada, but the aspect that is being completely ignored is the twin dagger of the fact the Canadian economy is not in a great place, simultaneous with the fact the Canadian dollar is in the toilet.

A lot of this began pre-tariffs, which is being conveniently ignored, and it is not shocking that sales/activity began to fall in the first quarter of 2025, because the end of 2024 was when the CAD was at its absolute weakest (it's been fighting back lately). In other words, much of this narrative is completely political.

View attachment 66406

Good article in The New York Times (today) on how the Canadians have let the Airforce, etc. go to seed. Not good.

 

[thetrailboss]

They are hurting due to the lack of Canadian visitors refusing to visit the US.

That's how I read it as well.

 

[Razor]

Wonder if you can get some good deals at Old Orchard Beach right now.

 

[thetrailboss]

Wonder if you can get some good deals at Old Orchard Beach right now.

I would be interested to hear from the Maine news outlets how OOB is doing as that is a major destination for Canadians.

 

[Abominable]

I would be interested to hear from the Maine news outlets how OOB is doing as that is a major destination for Canadians.

From yesterday's WSJ. I no longer subscribe so can't provide full article,.

Meet the Canadians Breaking Up With Their Beloved Maine Vacation Spot​

George Poitras says he felt nostalgic for Old Orchard Beach the first time he visited as a teen. “I’d like to show this to other people,” he recalls thinking of the Maine town and its smooth, sandy beaches. Later, he’d bring his three children for vacations to share “pier fries” and ride amusement park rides on warm summer nights.

This year, though, the seaside town where he and thousands of other Canadians come each summer is caught in a political maelstrom. The neighborly relationship between the two countries went south after President Trump threatened to make Canada the 51st U.S. state and hit it with tariffs. In response to the trade moves, then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called for Canadians to boycott U.S. travel and singled out Old Orchard Beach by name.

https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/travel/canadians-boycott-maine-vacation-87c2c5db?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAjkmNrtf4DlUZHQrnr5MOBb9xBbIwynG23ltWU_A1jprJWtIrENYMAqEBJaIwQ%3D&gaa_ts=6850562b&gaa_sig=CPR7Rph67zOzd4oE8QAyjRRKuxD1-Gfg8K_hcAOJdH0wYmtu1HXqsHoeF5XTIDfnuRZerV34dHa57QbTguAikw%3D%3D

 

[Tin Woodsman]

The lift and lift construction costs are $18M. The $9M is for extra project costs which are non-lift or lift construction related. Sloppy response on your part.

Speaking of sloppy responses, comparing a lift that was already acquired pre-tariffs to one that would be acquired post-tariffs is pretty much the height of sloppiness, not to mention motivated reasoning and boot-licking bad faith. And of course "sub-mile chairlift" is doing a lot of work, as the proposed line for the new Bonnie is .987 miles, so effectively a full mile - it's not like this is Burns at Deer Valley or something.

And is there a definition anywhere for "non-lift costs"? That article says that $18M was for the purchase of the lift only. One could just as easily interpret the incremental $9M in costs for things like tree-removal, removal of the old lift, terminal area grading and installation of the new lift - all of which would typically be included in the price tag for a full installation. All of which is to say, the article @BenedictGomez linked doesn't support his point with the clarity he thinks.

 

[Edd]

Even if Canadians weren’t pissed about tariffs (and they are), fear of increased border hassles alone are, I’d bet, enough to keep a non-trivial number of tourists from risking it.

 

[raisingarizona]

It's not about Maine but this is the prevailing general attitude of Canadians for all of US tourism

Canada Issues Bold New Travel Warning for U.S.

As the Los Angeles protests enters its 10th day, the Canadian government has encouraged its citizens to think twice before traveling to the City of Angels.

www.yahoo.com

 

[chuckstah]

Even if Canadians weren’t pissed about tariffs (and they are), fear of increased border hassles alone are, I’d bet, enough to keep a non-trivial number of tourists from risking it.

My Canadian friends are certainly pissed about the tarrifs, but the main factor keeping them north of the border is the 51st state bullshit. The exchange rate is certainly no help either. Planets have aligned to limit travel south.

 

[drjeff]

Guessing the bulk of the Canadians, who priclaim they won't go to Jay because of their opposition to the current political climate are akin to the bulk of the Americans you say they won't go to Disney World, because of the political leadership in FL.. A vocal minority of whom the rapidly dieing mainstream media caters to, that at the end of the day wouldn't have gone there a few years ago, regardless of the "threats" they make to the mainstream media..

Guessing that Jay saw little to no fall off I'm daily visitation the last few months of their season after the tariff announcement was made

 

[thetrailboss]

Guessing the bulk of the Canadians, who priclaim they won't go to Jay because of their opposition to the current political climate are akin to the bulk of the Americans you say they won't go to Disney World, because of the political leadership in FL.. A vocal minority of whom the rapidly dieing mainstream media caters to, that at the end of the day wouldn't have gone there a few years ago, regardless of the "threats" they make to the mainstream media..

Guessing that Jay saw little to no fall off I'm daily visitation the last few months of their season after the tariff announcement was made

Then why did Steve Wright have all of the stats of real time business declines?

 

[deadheadskier]

Well my guess is the good Doctor and others who share his views, think Mr Wright is a liar like the legacy mainstream media. He and other businesses could produce the receipts (Steve pretty much did in that article) and they still wouldn't believe that US policy has that great of an impact on Canadian travel choices. The Canadians can tell you that's why. US businesses can sound the alarm on fiscal results. But it's all mostly just dining room table talk and not real.

 

[thebigo]

Wonder if you can get some good deals at Old Orchard Beach right now.

And probably some great bargains on speedos.

 

[Killingtime]

Of course one resort I've been eyeing for awhile, Le Massif de Charlevoix, gets added to the Ikon pass in the middle of this. Hopefully this will somehow get resolved before next season, but I'm not hopeful. When that 51st State stuff started coming out, I knew it wouldn't go over well. Jay was loaded with Canadians on one of my trips this year and they were friendly and cool to hang with. I've always had a great time in Canada too. No reason to insult them. This whole thing should have been handled better.

​

 

[crystalmountainskier]

Guessing the bulk of the Canadians, who priclaim they won't go to Jay because of their opposition to the current political climate are akin to the bulk of the Americans you say they won't go to Disney World, because of the political leadership in FL.. A vocal minority of whom the rapidly dieing mainstream media caters to, that at the end of the day wouldn't have gone there a few years ago, regardless of the "threats" they make to the mainstream media..

Guessing that Jay saw little to no fall off I'm daily visitation the last few months of their season after the tariff announcement was made

Border crossings are down 24%.

Canadian air and auto travel to the U.S. drops again in May, overseas trips increase

Preliminary data from Statistics Canada indicates fewer Canadians chose to travel to the U.S. this May than in May 2024.

nationalpost.com

4% down Canadians returning by Air in May and 38% percent down for Canadians returning by road(!)

The Daily — Leading indicator of international arrivals to Canada, May 2025

In May 2025, the preliminary number of international arrivals (returning Canadian residents and non-residents combined) to Canada by air and automobile was 4.8 million, down 16.7% from May 2024. This was the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year declines.

www150.statcan.gc.ca