powderfreak
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- Jan 9, 2007
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Two Systems of Interest for the first half of the week:
1) A weak disturbance tracking through southern Canada will bring snow showers to the North Country on Monday night. This is a very moisture starved system so I'm not looking for anything more than a dusting to 2" across the mountains. I think the Champlain Valley will get downsloped on WSW winds and with a moisture starved system, flakes will probably not make it to the surface.
2) A robust and energetic clipper will track across NY state into central/southern New England on New Year's Eve. This will make for a festive New Year's Eve day across the North Country and I'm pretty set on a widespread 3-6" fluffy snowfall across the entire region. Model QPF has been consistently .25-.5" north of the relatively strong clipper (~998mb and deepening). With the region in the left front quad of a 200mb-300mb speed max and a decent H5 vort tracking over us, we'll have upper air support. Heaviest snow axis looks to be from Watertown-Montpelier-Bangor. The only catch with this one is that if it continues to trend stronger, it'll dig deeper which could put max snowfall further south and bring the 1-3" range into the northern half of our area. Snow should be out of here by the time for festivities but it'll be nice to get a resurfacing of the powder to add to the New Year's cheer.
One Major System Looming for the Weekend:
Global models continue to indicated a strong short-wave will drop into the northern Plains on Thursday and continue ESE into the southern Lakes region. With such a strong shortwave and some moderate upstream blocking, the upper level trough is forced to dig into the Ohio Valley.
Synoptically, what happens from here is based on the strength of the SE Atlantic ridge and upstream blocking as we are developing a -NAO signal. There's the chance that this takes an inland track with snow going to mixed precipitation in our neck of the woods, but there's also the chance that the upper level trough is forced far enough east to spawn a coastal low.
Its a 50/50% chance of either solution right now but global teleconnections are supporting enough of a block that this low tracks east of us, not west. The problem lies with the primary low in the eastern Lakes region, if it hangs on for too long it'll allow warmer air aloft to work into our area. Meanwhile, if you like model nrop, the 00z EURO put a 966mb(!) low near eastern Maine and would be a blizzard for someone in northern New England. Canadian GGEM likes the warmer solution with mainly mixed precip and the GFS is somewhere in between.
Either way, this is looking like a significant precipitation event and will be monitored.
-Scott
1) A weak disturbance tracking through southern Canada will bring snow showers to the North Country on Monday night. This is a very moisture starved system so I'm not looking for anything more than a dusting to 2" across the mountains. I think the Champlain Valley will get downsloped on WSW winds and with a moisture starved system, flakes will probably not make it to the surface.
2) A robust and energetic clipper will track across NY state into central/southern New England on New Year's Eve. This will make for a festive New Year's Eve day across the North Country and I'm pretty set on a widespread 3-6" fluffy snowfall across the entire region. Model QPF has been consistently .25-.5" north of the relatively strong clipper (~998mb and deepening). With the region in the left front quad of a 200mb-300mb speed max and a decent H5 vort tracking over us, we'll have upper air support. Heaviest snow axis looks to be from Watertown-Montpelier-Bangor. The only catch with this one is that if it continues to trend stronger, it'll dig deeper which could put max snowfall further south and bring the 1-3" range into the northern half of our area. Snow should be out of here by the time for festivities but it'll be nice to get a resurfacing of the powder to add to the New Year's cheer.
One Major System Looming for the Weekend:
Global models continue to indicated a strong short-wave will drop into the northern Plains on Thursday and continue ESE into the southern Lakes region. With such a strong shortwave and some moderate upstream blocking, the upper level trough is forced to dig into the Ohio Valley.
Synoptically, what happens from here is based on the strength of the SE Atlantic ridge and upstream blocking as we are developing a -NAO signal. There's the chance that this takes an inland track with snow going to mixed precipitation in our neck of the woods, but there's also the chance that the upper level trough is forced far enough east to spawn a coastal low.
Its a 50/50% chance of either solution right now but global teleconnections are supporting enough of a block that this low tracks east of us, not west. The problem lies with the primary low in the eastern Lakes region, if it hangs on for too long it'll allow warmer air aloft to work into our area. Meanwhile, if you like model nrop, the 00z EURO put a 966mb(!) low near eastern Maine and would be a blizzard for someone in northern New England. Canadian GGEM likes the warmer solution with mainly mixed precip and the GFS is somewhere in between.
Either way, this is looking like a significant precipitation event and will be monitored.
-Scott
